包容性金融发展评价及其产业结构升级效应研究

发布时间：2018-08-20 18:01

【摘要】：发达国家产业发展的历程表明,产业结构升级是世界经济长期增长的典型特征,是发展中国家转变经济发展方式的核心问题与重要途径。产业转型升级在本质上是经济发展方式和经济发展动力的根本改变,前提是资源配置机制与效率的优化。因此,金融作为现代经济的核心,日益成为产业结构升级的重要实现机制(罗超平等,2016)。但是,伴随中国宏观经济金融发展步入转型升级的关键期、痛苦期,金融与经济的关系出现了一系列新的矛盾和问题。一方面,在宏观经济下行压力不断加大的“新常态”和制造业国际竞争对手“前堵后追”的背景下,中国经济长期积累的结构性矛盾更加凸显。另一方面,金融业的快速发展与普遍存在的金融排斥现象形成鲜明的对比,金融资源配置的矛盾与冲突日益加剧。因此,仅仅通过金融规模或深度的扩张无法真正缓解产业结构升级的金融约束,应该着力构建包容性的金融体系,引导产业结构趋于合理化、高度化发展日渐成为学术界与决策层关注的焦点。基于此,本文的研究问题聚焦于:包容性金融发展对产业结构升级的影响机理与作用渠道。为了解读上述问题,本文遵循“理论研究(构建分析框架)→实证研究(奠定微观基础)→政策研究(提出改进措施)”的逻辑思路,以中国经济金融发展的现实矛盾为出发点,以缓解产业结构转型升级的金融约束为目的,实施将规范研究与实证研究相结合的研究方法。其中,理论研究注重对包容性金融、产业结构升级等核心概念的科学界定,并在此基础上借鉴金融发展理论、包容性增长理论、产业结构转型升级理论等,探讨包容性金融发展对产业结构升级的作用机理。实证研究在理论研究部分构建的分析框架的基础上展开,基于中国经济金融运行实践的特殊矛盾构建了涵盖“金融发展的普惠性”、“金融与经济的耦合性”、“金融发展的创新性”三个维度的包容性金融发展评价指标体系,并运用2004-2014年中国31个省域的面板数据,采用参数法(扩展GMM回归方法)与非参数法(局部线性回归方法)相结合的研究方法,实证检验包容性金融发展对产业结构升级的静态与动态影响。在稳健的研究结论的基础上,本文提出促进包容性金融发展及其产业结构升级效应发挥的政策选择。研究发现:(1)我国金融包容性发展水平总体上处于上升趋势。但是,“经济与金融的耦合性”出现较大波动,特别是金融危机以来出现波动下降趋势,表现出“虚实脱节”矛盾。同时,包容性金融发展水平存在较为明显的区域性差异,经济发展较为滞后的中西部地区,金融包容性发展相对较差;(2)包容性金融发展促进了产业结构的升级,并伴随包容性发展程度的提高,其对产业结构升级的促进效应越明显。相较中西部地区,东部地区的该促进效应更为明显;(3)包容性金融发展的产业结构升级效应主要是通过“金融发展的普惠性”机制发挥,但“金融与经济的耦合性”、“金融发展的创新性”引导产业结构升级的效应并未有效发挥。(4)基于非参数逐点回归的动态过程进一步揭示,包容性金融发展的产业结构升级效应随着市场化进程的提升呈现出“U型”变化趋势。因此,完善市场化落后地区的市场机制成为提高包容性金融发展的产业结构升级效应的关键。
[Abstract]:The course of industrial development in developed countries shows that the upgrading of industrial structure is a typical feature of the long-term growth of the world economy and a core issue and an important way for developing countries to transform their economic development patterns. Therefore, finance, as the core of modern economy, is increasingly becoming an important mechanism to upgrade the industrial structure (Luo Chao Equality, 2016). However, with China's macroeconomic and financial development into the critical period of transformation and upgrading, the painful period, the relationship between finance and economy has emerged a series of new contradictions and problems. On the other hand, the rapid development of the financial industry contrasts sharply with the widespread financial exclusion, and the contradictions and conflicts in the allocation of financial resources become increasingly serious. Therefore, only through the expansion of financial scale or depth can not really alleviate the financial constraints of industrial structure upgrading, we should focus on building an inclusive financial system to guide the rationalization of industrial structure, and the high-level development has increasingly become the focus of attention of academia and decision-makers. In order to understand the above-mentioned problems, this paper follows the logic of "theoretical research (construction of analytical framework) empirical research (laying micro-foundation) policy research (proposing improvement measures)" and takes the realistic contradiction of China's economic and financial development as the starting point to alleviate the industrial structure transformation. For the purpose of financial restraint of type I upgrade, the research method of combining normative research with empirical research is carried out. Among them, theoretical research focuses on the scientific definition of the core concepts of Inclusive Finance and industrial structure upgrade, and on this basis, the theory of financial development, inclusive growth, industrial structure transformation and upgrading is used for reference to explore inclusiveness. On the basis of the analysis framework constructed in the theoretical research section, the empirical research constructs three dimensions, namely, the inclusiveness of financial development, the coupling of Finance and economy, and the innovation of financial development, based on the special contradictions in the practice of China's economic and financial operation. The index system of inclusive financial development evaluation and the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2004 to 2014 are used to test the static and dynamic effects of Inclusive Financial Development on the upgrading of industrial structure. On the basis of the conclusion, this paper puts forward some policy choices to promote inclusive financial development and upgrade its industrial structure. At the same time, there are obvious regional differences in the level of inclusive financial development, the lagging economic development in the central and Western regions, financial inclusive development is relatively poor; (2) inclusive financial development promotes the upgrading of industrial structure, and with the improvement of inclusive development, its industrial structure is upgraded. Compared with the central and Western regions, the eastern region has a more obvious promotion effect. (3) The industrial structure upgrading effect of inclusive financial development is mainly through the "inclusive financial development" mechanism, but the "coupling of Finance and economy" and "the innovation of financial development" lead to the industrial structure upgrading effect. (4) Based on the dynamic process of non-parametric point-by-point regression, it is further revealed that the industrial structure upgrading effect of inclusive financial development presents a "U-shaped" trend with the promotion of the market-oriented process. Therefore, improving the market mechanism in the backward market-oriented areas becomes to improve the industrial structure upgrading effect of inclusive financial development. The key should be.
【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832

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