碳排放约束下的江苏省产业结构调整研究
发布时间：2018-11-06 09:02
【摘要】：随着全球气候的持续变暖,以二氧化碳为主的温室气体的大量排放成为影响全球变暖的重要因素之一,减少碳排放、发展低碳经济已经成为了世界各国的共识。我国政府在2009年哥本哈根会议上承诺,到2020年实现碳排放强度比2005年下降40%-45%,江苏省既是我国经济发展最快的省份之一,又是全国碳排放的大省,碳减排责任重大。如何在保证经济增长的前提下降低碳排放是江苏省亟需解决的问题。本文运用产业结构调整、碳排放与产业结构等理论,分析了江苏省碳排放与产业结构调整之间的关系,通过江苏省历年能源平衡表,结合IPCC评估报告提供的碳排放核算方法首先对江苏省1995-2014年碳排放总量和分产业部门碳排放量进行测算,然后分别从碳排放总体、产业结构、能源结构,与全国的横向对比四个方面分析了江苏省碳排放的现状。利用碳排放量和三次产业相关指标,运用时间序列数据,通过格兰杰因果检验、协整方程、VAR方程计量分析产业结构对碳排放的影响。在此基础上结合江苏省经济发展和环境质量的实际运行情况构建多目标投入产出优化模型,采集最新的江苏省30部门投入产出表和江苏省统计年鉴的数据,进行规划求解,重点对2020年江苏省各产业的结构调整潜力和产业结构调整趋势进行预测性的模拟研究。本文研究得出:第一,在产业结构上,江苏省形成了“二三一”的产业格局。在碳排放量上,江苏省的第二产业碳排放占绝对比重,能源消费仍以煤炭为主。全省碳排放强度呈逐年降低的趋势并低于全国平均水平,同时,人均碳排放量高于全国平均水平。第二,三次产业内部结构的低碳化调整有利于减少碳排放,同时需要提高三次产业内部的能源利用效率。第三,江苏省产业结构的演变是地区碳排放量增长的Granger原因,反之,碳排放量的变动仅为第三产业产值变动的Granger原因。短期内,第一产业、第三产业的发展会使得碳排放量减少;第二产业的发展会使得碳排放量提升。长期来说,江苏省第一产业产值比重变动对碳排放量影响效应为负;第二产业、第三产业产值比重变动对碳排放量影响效应为正,且第二产业正效应高于第三产业。第四,江苏省的结构调整必须对各类产业做出准确定位,以主导产业为先导。通过多目标投入产出优化模型发现江苏省需要重点关注的14个产业,对区域经济增长具有明显的带动作用。同时,江苏省产业结构优化将呈现出“软化”趋势。
[Abstract]:With the continuous warming of the global climate, a large number of greenhouse gas emissions, mainly carbon dioxide, have become one of the important factors affecting global warming, reducing carbon emissions, and developing low-carbon economy has become the consensus of the world. At the Copenhagen Conference in 2009, our government promised that the intensity of carbon emissions will be 40 to 45 percent lower by 2020 than in 2005. Jiangsu Province is not only one of the fastest-growing provinces in our country, but also a big province of carbon emissions in the whole country. How to reduce carbon emissions while ensuring economic growth is an urgent problem in Jiangsu Province. Based on the theories of industrial structure adjustment, carbon emission and industrial structure, this paper analyzes the relationship between carbon emission and industrial structure adjustment in Jiangsu Province. Combined with the carbon emission accounting method provided by the IPCC assessment report, the total amount of carbon emissions from 1995 to 2014 in Jiangsu Province and the carbon emissions from the sub-industrial sectors were measured, and then the overall carbon emissions, industrial structure and energy structure were measured, respectively. The present situation of carbon emission in Jiangsu Province is analyzed in four aspects compared with the whole country. With the help of carbon emissions and related indexes of tertiary industries, the effects of industrial structure on carbon emissions were analyzed by Granger causality test, cointegration equation and VAR equation. On this basis, a multi-objective input-output optimization model is constructed based on the actual operation of economic development and environmental quality in Jiangsu Province, and the latest input-output tables of 30 departments in Jiangsu Province and the statistical yearbook of Jiangsu Province are collected to solve the problem. This paper focuses on the simulation study on the potentiality of industrial structure adjustment and the trend of industrial structure adjustment in Jiangsu Province in 2020. First, in terms of industrial structure, Jiangsu Province has formed a "two-three-one" industrial pattern. In terms of carbon emissions, Jiangsu Province's secondary industry carbon emissions account for an absolute proportion, energy consumption is still dominated by coal. The intensity of carbon emission in the whole province is decreasing year by year and is lower than the national average, at the same time, the per capita carbon emission is higher than the national average. Second, the low carbonization adjustment of the internal structure of the third industry is conducive to reducing carbon emissions, and the energy efficiency within the third industry needs to be improved at the same time. Thirdly, the evolution of the industrial structure of Jiangsu Province is the Granger cause of the increase of regional carbon emissions, whereas the change of carbon emissions is only the Granger reason of the change of the output value of the tertiary industry. In the short term, the development of the primary industry and the tertiary industry will reduce the carbon emissions, while the development of the secondary industry will increase the carbon emissions. In the long run, the effect of the change of the proportion of the output value of the primary industry on the carbon emissions is negative, while that of the secondary industry and the third industry is positive, and the positive effect of the secondary industry is higher than that of the third industry. Fourth, the structural adjustment of Jiangsu Province must make accurate positioning for all kinds of industries and take the leading industry as the guide. Through the multi-objective input-output optimization model, it is found that 14 industries need to be focused on in Jiangsu Province, which has a significant driving effect on regional economic growth. At the same time, Jiangsu Province industrial structure optimization will show a "softening" trend.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127
本文编号：2313834
[Abstract]:With the continuous warming of the global climate, a large number of greenhouse gas emissions, mainly carbon dioxide, have become one of the important factors affecting global warming, reducing carbon emissions, and developing low-carbon economy has become the consensus of the world. At the Copenhagen Conference in 2009, our government promised that the intensity of carbon emissions will be 40 to 45 percent lower by 2020 than in 2005. Jiangsu Province is not only one of the fastest-growing provinces in our country, but also a big province of carbon emissions in the whole country. How to reduce carbon emissions while ensuring economic growth is an urgent problem in Jiangsu Province. Based on the theories of industrial structure adjustment, carbon emission and industrial structure, this paper analyzes the relationship between carbon emission and industrial structure adjustment in Jiangsu Province. Combined with the carbon emission accounting method provided by the IPCC assessment report, the total amount of carbon emissions from 1995 to 2014 in Jiangsu Province and the carbon emissions from the sub-industrial sectors were measured, and then the overall carbon emissions, industrial structure and energy structure were measured, respectively. The present situation of carbon emission in Jiangsu Province is analyzed in four aspects compared with the whole country. With the help of carbon emissions and related indexes of tertiary industries, the effects of industrial structure on carbon emissions were analyzed by Granger causality test, cointegration equation and VAR equation. On this basis, a multi-objective input-output optimization model is constructed based on the actual operation of economic development and environmental quality in Jiangsu Province, and the latest input-output tables of 30 departments in Jiangsu Province and the statistical yearbook of Jiangsu Province are collected to solve the problem. This paper focuses on the simulation study on the potentiality of industrial structure adjustment and the trend of industrial structure adjustment in Jiangsu Province in 2020. First, in terms of industrial structure, Jiangsu Province has formed a "two-three-one" industrial pattern. In terms of carbon emissions, Jiangsu Province's secondary industry carbon emissions account for an absolute proportion, energy consumption is still dominated by coal. The intensity of carbon emission in the whole province is decreasing year by year and is lower than the national average, at the same time, the per capita carbon emission is higher than the national average. Second, the low carbonization adjustment of the internal structure of the third industry is conducive to reducing carbon emissions, and the energy efficiency within the third industry needs to be improved at the same time. Thirdly, the evolution of the industrial structure of Jiangsu Province is the Granger cause of the increase of regional carbon emissions, whereas the change of carbon emissions is only the Granger reason of the change of the output value of the tertiary industry. In the short term, the development of the primary industry and the tertiary industry will reduce the carbon emissions, while the development of the secondary industry will increase the carbon emissions. In the long run, the effect of the change of the proportion of the output value of the primary industry on the carbon emissions is negative, while that of the secondary industry and the third industry is positive, and the positive effect of the secondary industry is higher than that of the third industry. Fourth, the structural adjustment of Jiangsu Province must make accurate positioning for all kinds of industries and take the leading industry as the guide. Through the multi-objective input-output optimization model, it is found that 14 industries need to be focused on in Jiangsu Province, which has a significant driving effect on regional economic growth. At the same time, Jiangsu Province industrial structure optimization will show a "softening" trend.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127
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