山东省农业产业结构调整对农业经济增长的贡献研究

发布时间：2018-11-09 07:15

【摘要】：山东省农业产业结构调整已经进入了战略性发展的时期。近年来,山东省农业产业结构仍处在不断调整和优化中,农产品生产成本比较高、品种比较单一、质量也不是很好,竞争力不强,无法很好地满足社会的需求,使得山东省农业的发展陷入了逆境中。对农业产业结构进行调整是解决与改善这些问题的最好方式,合理的农业产业结构不仅可以提高农民的收入,还能推动农业的发展。因此,研究山东省农业产业结构调整对农业经济增长的贡献程度是很有必要的,对于促进农业产业结构的不断完善以及推动农业经济的发展有着很重要的意义。鉴于此,本文在借鉴了国内外学者研究的基础上,结合山东省实际情况,首先从理论层面分析农业产业结构调整与农业经济的增长的关系。其次,文章从山东省农业产业结构调整的历程入手,结合其发展的现状,进一步探究了农业产业结构调整对农业经济的影响。在此基础上,文章利用构建农业产业结构影响农业经济增长的分析模型(结构 增长模型)与实证检验(因果关系检验)相结合的方法,将农业内部各产业对农业经济增长的贡献度做了比较。最后,针对农业产业结构调整中存在的问题,提出相应的对策建议。本文运用了文献查阅、静态与动态分析相结合、定量分析、比较分析的方法,并在构建回归模型时创造性的引入了4个控制变量,使模型的准确性有了很大的提高。通过研究得到以下结论:(1)产业结构的变动能够很好地促进农业经济的增长,但产业内部结构依旧不合理,主要依赖种植业。今后应大力发展畜牧业、渔业、林业,实现产业间的均衡发展。(2)本文的实证回归结果表明:农业产业结构的调整对于山东省的农业经济增长来说,种植业的贡献最多,牧业次之、而后是渔业,而林业对农业经济的贡献并不显著。(3)山东省在进行农业产业结构的调整时要具体地区具体分析,全省各地应该充分利用本区优势,要发展适合自身特点的产业,推动农业经济的快速增长。
[Abstract]:Shandong Province agricultural industrial structure adjustment has entered the strategic development period. In recent years, the agricultural industrial structure of Shandong Province is still in the process of continuous adjustment and optimization. The production cost of agricultural products is relatively high, the variety is relatively single, the quality is not very good, and the competitiveness is not strong, so it is unable to meet the needs of the society very well. The development of agriculture in Shandong Province has fallen into adversity. The adjustment of agricultural industrial structure is the best way to solve and improve these problems. A reasonable agricultural industrial structure can not only increase the income of farmers, but also promote the development of agriculture. Therefore, it is necessary to study the contribution of agricultural industrial structure adjustment to agricultural economic growth in Shandong Province, which is of great significance in promoting the continuous improvement of agricultural industrial structure and promoting the development of agricultural economy. In view of this, based on the study of domestic and foreign scholars, combining with the actual situation of Shandong Province, this paper first analyzes the relationship between the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure and the growth of agricultural economy from the theoretical level. Secondly, the paper starts with the course of agricultural industrial structure adjustment in Shandong Province, and further explores the influence of agricultural industrial structure adjustment on agricultural economy in combination with the present situation of its development. On this basis, the paper combines the analysis model (structural growth model) and empirical test (causality test) to construct the agricultural industrial structure influencing agricultural economic growth. The contribution of various industries to agricultural economic growth is compared. Finally, in view of the problems existing in the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. This paper uses the methods of literature reference, static and dynamic analysis, quantitative analysis and comparative analysis, and creatively introduces four control variables in the construction of regression model, which greatly improves the accuracy of the model. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) the change of industrial structure can promote the growth of agricultural economy, but the internal structure of industry is still unreasonable and mainly depends on planting industry. In the future, we should vigorously develop animal husbandry, fishery and forestry, and realize the balanced development among industries. (2) the empirical regression results of this paper show that the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure contributes the most to the agricultural economic growth in Shandong Province. The contribution of forestry to the agricultural economy is not significant. (3) Shandong Province should make concrete analysis of the specific regions when carrying out the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure, and all parts of the province should make full use of the advantages of this region. Should develop the industry that suits oneself characteristic, promote the rapid growth of agricultural economy.
【学位授予单位】：山东理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F321;F323

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