FDI对天津市产业结构升级的影响分析
发布时间：2018-11-14 08:18
【摘要】：随着经济全球化的进一步深化,FDI呈现出发展迅速、来源广泛以及方式多样等特征,并逐渐成为世界各国经济发展中的重要推动力量。FDI是综合资金、技术、管理经验等诸多要素的国际化资本,FDI的流入会产生资本供给效应、技术溢出效应、就业效应、贸易效应等一系列经济效应,从而对东道国的经济发展起到推动作用。FDI的规模与结构对东道国的经济增长、产业结构调整、就业等均可产生不可忽视的影响。近年,伴随着经济体制改革的不断推进,天津市已形成了有一定集聚规模的高端制造业,尤其以航空航天、新能源汽车、新材料、生物医药、新能源、节能环保、现代石化、现代冶金等产业为代表。但是,当前天津市第三产业及新兴服务业发展缓慢的问题日益凸显。在自贸区成立、京津冀协同发展的背景下,作为我国第三经济增长极,天津市既要在我国区域发展的总体格局中发挥引领作用,又要在世界经济舞台上扩大开放。随着对投资综合效应的深入研究,通过吸引外资带动技术进步从而进一步推动产业结构优化升级已成为天津市引进外资时不可忽视的着力点。因此,天津市迫切需要抓住机遇,合理引进并利用FDI来优化调整自身产业结构,同时注重提高引进外资的质量和效益。本文将结合天津市利用外资的特征,从FDI及产业结构演进相关理论着手,归纳总结天津市利用FDI及产业结构的现状及存在的问题,并对FDI对产业构成产生的影响展开实证分析,最后提出围绕天津市扩大引进FDI带动产业结构调整及经济增长提出相关政策建议。本文主要由五个部分组成。第一部分为绪论。第二部分回顾和评述了 FDI及产业结构调整相关理论,并总结分析FDI对产业结构升级的影响机制。第三部分对天津市产业结构特征与存在的问题以及FDI的来源、类型、产业行业分布等展开了详细分析,并结合天津市实际情况研究FDI对产业结构调整的影响。第四部分首先引入了 "区域吸收能力指标",建立VAR模型,在对模型进行相关检验后,运用脉冲响应函数分析各因素对FDI与"区域吸收能力"指标对产业结构升级的影响,并运用方差分解分析各变量对产业结构影响的贡献度。实证结果表明,FDI对产业结构调整优化有正向的影响作用,同时"区域吸收能力"的提升对FDI对天津市产业结构升级有促进作用。第五部分首先归纳了全文的研究结论,然后结合天津市实际情况,就如何利用FDI促进产业结构调整和优化以带动经济增长提出了相应的政策建议,并为环渤海经济圈及目前利用外资水平偏低的中西部地区,通过合理引进FDI实现产业结构调整提供借鉴经验。本文的创新之处在于:第一,构建产业结构优化的测度指标—产业结构层次系数,使天津市近年来的产业结构变化得以量化,之前的学者在FDI对天津市产业结构方面的研究较少。第二,本文总结了 FDI对产业结构调整优化的影响机制,分别从资本供给效应、技术溢出效应、就业效应以及贸易效应等几个方面,对FDI对产业结构升级的影响进行归纳。第三,鉴于影响产业结构升级因素的复杂性,本文创造性的引入"区域吸收能力"指标,构建VAR模型来实证分析FDI和人力资本水平、对外开放程度及技术创新能力与产业结构之间的关系。同时,受到笔者研究水平的限制,本文也存在以下不足之处:由于数据来源的限制,进行实证分析时本文选取的样本数据缺失的部分采用估算数据,可能会对估计结果产生影响。另外,本文所构建的产业结构层次系数偏向于简单化,可能与准确衡量产业结构状况存在一定差距。本文是在本人现有水平和搜集资料的基础上,做一些试探性研究并提出自己的想法。
[Abstract]:With the further deepening of the economic globalization, FDI has the characteristics of rapid development, wide source and diversified modes, and has become an important driving force in the economic development of all countries in the world. FDI is the international capital of many factors such as comprehensive fund, technology and management experience. The inflow of FDI can produce a series of economic effects such as capital supply effect, technology spillover effect, employment effect and trade effect, so as to promote the economic development of the host country. The scale and structure of FDI can have a non-negligible effect on the host country's economic growth, industrial structure adjustment and employment. In recent years, with the continuous development of economic system reform, Tianjin has formed a high-end manufacturing industry with a certain concentration scale, especially in the fields of aerospace, new energy vehicles, new materials, biological medicine, new energy, energy-saving and environment-friendly, modern petrifaction, modern metallurgy and other industries. However, the problems of the development of the tertiary industry and the new service industry in Tianjin are becoming more and more prominent. In the context of the establishment of the Free Trade Zone and the development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, as the third economic growth pole of our country, Tianjin will play a leading role in the overall pattern of regional development in China, and to expand the opening of the world economic stage. With the further study of the comprehensive effect of the investment, by attracting the foreign capital to drive the technological progress, further promoting the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure has become a point of focus that cannot be ignored in the introduction of foreign investment in Tianjin. Therefore, it is urgent to seize the opportunity, to introduce and use FDI to optimize the adjustment of the industrial structure, and to improve the quality and benefit of the introduction of foreign capital. Based on the characteristics of the utilization of foreign capital in Tianjin, this paper proceeds from the theory of FDI and the evolution of industrial structure, summarizes the present situation and existing problems of the utilization of FDI and the industrial structure in Tianjin, and makes an empirical analysis of the impact of FDI on the industrial structure. Finally, the paper puts forward the relevant policy suggestions about the expansion of FDI in Tianjin to drive the industrial structure adjustment and economic growth. This paper is mainly composed of five parts. The first part is the introduction. The second part reviews and comments on the theory of FDI and industrial structure adjustment, and summarizes the influence mechanism of FDI on the upgrading of industrial structure. The third part analyzes the structure and the existing problems of Tianjin's industrial structure and the source, type and industry distribution of the FDI, and studies the effect of FDI on the industrial structure adjustment in combination with the actual situation of Tianjin. In the fourth part, the regional absorptive capacity index is introduced, and the VAR model is established. After the correlation test is carried out on the model, the influence of each factor on the upgrading of the industrial structure is analyzed by using the impulse response function, and the contribution degree of each variable to the industrial structure is analyzed by using the variance decomposition. The empirical results show that FDI has a positive effect on the optimization of industrial structure, and the promotion of "regional absorptive capacity" has a catalytic effect on the upgrading of industrial structure in Tianjin. The fifth part first sums up the research conclusion of the full text, then combined with the actual situation in Tianjin, how to use the FDI to promote the industrial structure adjustment and optimization to drive the economic growth to put forward the corresponding policy suggestion, and it is the central and western region of the Bohai economic circle and the current level of foreign capital utilization, Through the rational introduction of the FDI to realize the industrial structure adjustment, provide the reference experience. The innovation of this paper is that the first, to construct the measure index of the optimization of the industrial structure and the level coefficient of the industrial structure, make the change of the industrial structure of Tianjin in recent years be quantified, and the previous scholars have little research on the industrial structure of Tianjin. Secondly, this paper sums up the influence mechanism of FDI on the optimization of industrial structure adjustment, and sums up the effect of FDI on the upgrading of industrial structure from several aspects such as capital supply effect, technology spillover effect, employment effect and trade effect. Third, in view of the complexity of the factors that affect the upgrading of the industrial structure, this paper introduces the "regional absorptive capacity" index and constructs the VAR model to analyze the relationship between the level of FDI and human capital, the degree of opening to the outside world and the technological innovation ability and the industrial structure. At the same time, subject to the limitation of the author's research level, this paper also has the following defects: due to the limitation of the data source, the part of the sample data missing from the empirical analysis is used to estimate the data, which may have an effect on the estimation result. In addition, the structural level of the industrial structure, which is constructed in this paper, is biased to the simplification, and there is a certain gap between the state of the industrial structure and the accurate measurement of the industrial structure. This paper, on the basis of my current level and data collection, makes some tentative research and puts forward its own ideas.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.6;F127
本文编号：2330612
[Abstract]:With the further deepening of the economic globalization, FDI has the characteristics of rapid development, wide source and diversified modes, and has become an important driving force in the economic development of all countries in the world. FDI is the international capital of many factors such as comprehensive fund, technology and management experience. The inflow of FDI can produce a series of economic effects such as capital supply effect, technology spillover effect, employment effect and trade effect, so as to promote the economic development of the host country. The scale and structure of FDI can have a non-negligible effect on the host country's economic growth, industrial structure adjustment and employment. In recent years, with the continuous development of economic system reform, Tianjin has formed a high-end manufacturing industry with a certain concentration scale, especially in the fields of aerospace, new energy vehicles, new materials, biological medicine, new energy, energy-saving and environment-friendly, modern petrifaction, modern metallurgy and other industries. However, the problems of the development of the tertiary industry and the new service industry in Tianjin are becoming more and more prominent. In the context of the establishment of the Free Trade Zone and the development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, as the third economic growth pole of our country, Tianjin will play a leading role in the overall pattern of regional development in China, and to expand the opening of the world economic stage. With the further study of the comprehensive effect of the investment, by attracting the foreign capital to drive the technological progress, further promoting the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure has become a point of focus that cannot be ignored in the introduction of foreign investment in Tianjin. Therefore, it is urgent to seize the opportunity, to introduce and use FDI to optimize the adjustment of the industrial structure, and to improve the quality and benefit of the introduction of foreign capital. Based on the characteristics of the utilization of foreign capital in Tianjin, this paper proceeds from the theory of FDI and the evolution of industrial structure, summarizes the present situation and existing problems of the utilization of FDI and the industrial structure in Tianjin, and makes an empirical analysis of the impact of FDI on the industrial structure. Finally, the paper puts forward the relevant policy suggestions about the expansion of FDI in Tianjin to drive the industrial structure adjustment and economic growth. This paper is mainly composed of five parts. The first part is the introduction. The second part reviews and comments on the theory of FDI and industrial structure adjustment, and summarizes the influence mechanism of FDI on the upgrading of industrial structure. The third part analyzes the structure and the existing problems of Tianjin's industrial structure and the source, type and industry distribution of the FDI, and studies the effect of FDI on the industrial structure adjustment in combination with the actual situation of Tianjin. In the fourth part, the regional absorptive capacity index is introduced, and the VAR model is established. After the correlation test is carried out on the model, the influence of each factor on the upgrading of the industrial structure is analyzed by using the impulse response function, and the contribution degree of each variable to the industrial structure is analyzed by using the variance decomposition. The empirical results show that FDI has a positive effect on the optimization of industrial structure, and the promotion of "regional absorptive capacity" has a catalytic effect on the upgrading of industrial structure in Tianjin. The fifth part first sums up the research conclusion of the full text, then combined with the actual situation in Tianjin, how to use the FDI to promote the industrial structure adjustment and optimization to drive the economic growth to put forward the corresponding policy suggestion, and it is the central and western region of the Bohai economic circle and the current level of foreign capital utilization, Through the rational introduction of the FDI to realize the industrial structure adjustment, provide the reference experience. The innovation of this paper is that the first, to construct the measure index of the optimization of the industrial structure and the level coefficient of the industrial structure, make the change of the industrial structure of Tianjin in recent years be quantified, and the previous scholars have little research on the industrial structure of Tianjin. Secondly, this paper sums up the influence mechanism of FDI on the optimization of industrial structure adjustment, and sums up the effect of FDI on the upgrading of industrial structure from several aspects such as capital supply effect, technology spillover effect, employment effect and trade effect. Third, in view of the complexity of the factors that affect the upgrading of the industrial structure, this paper introduces the "regional absorptive capacity" index and constructs the VAR model to analyze the relationship between the level of FDI and human capital, the degree of opening to the outside world and the technological innovation ability and the industrial structure. At the same time, subject to the limitation of the author's research level, this paper also has the following defects: due to the limitation of the data source, the part of the sample data missing from the empirical analysis is used to estimate the data, which may have an effect on the estimation result. In addition, the structural level of the industrial structure, which is constructed in this paper, is biased to the simplification, and there is a certain gap between the state of the industrial structure and the accurate measurement of the industrial structure. This paper, on the basis of my current level and data collection, makes some tentative research and puts forward its own ideas.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.6;F127
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