京津冀人口分布与产业布局的特征及关联分析

发布时间：2018-12-05 20:02

【摘要】：本文以北京市产业布局规划研究课题组提出的通过产业布局调整人口布局的构想为出发点,在分析京津冀人口分布与产业布局时空演变特征的基础上,发现地区协同发展存在人口分布与产业布局不匹配、人口质量与产业定位不匹配、人口服务与公共服务资源供需不匹配等问题。针对上述问题,采用定性与定量相结合的方法分析京津冀人口分布与产业布局的关联关系。利用人口经济一致性系数和arcgis可视化地图直观反映了人口分布与产业布局的空间一致性。进而以京津冀都市圈13个城市2010年至2015年的面板数据为样本,建立空间杜宾面板数据模型。从人口分布与产业布局的空间依赖程度及空间溢出效应两方面量化分析了两者的关联关系。结果表明,产业布局、收入水平和公共服务资源是影响地区人口空间分布的主要因素。一方面,京津冀人口分布表现出较强的虹吸效应。另一方面,人口分布和产业布局空间依赖程度高,产业布局特别是三产的集聚对本地区人口增长具有促进作用,而对周边地区人口增长表现出显著抑制作用,但总效应仍为正。根据模型结果,文章给出了相应的政策建议,为以产业布局调整人口分布的构想提供决策依据。
[Abstract]:Based on the idea of adjusting the population distribution through industrial layout proposed by the research group of industrial layout planning in Beijing, this paper analyzes the space-time evolution characteristics of population distribution and industrial layout in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. It is found that the population distribution does not match the industrial distribution, the population quality and the industrial orientation, and the supply and demand of population service and public service resources do not match. In order to solve the above problems, the relationship between population distribution and industrial distribution in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is analyzed by combining qualitative and quantitative methods. The spatial consistency of population distribution and industrial layout is reflected intuitively by using the economic consistency coefficient of population and the visual map of arcgis. Then, the spatial Dobbin panel data model is established based on the panel data of 13 cities in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei metropolitan area from 2010 to 2015. The relationship between population distribution, spatial dependence of industrial distribution and spatial spillover effect is analyzed quantitatively. The results show that the industrial distribution, income level and public service resources are the main factors affecting the spatial distribution of population. On the one hand, the population distribution of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei shows strong siphon effect. On the other hand, the spatial dependence of population distribution and industrial distribution is high. The industrial distribution, especially the agglomeration of three industries, can promote the population growth in the region, but it can inhibit the population growth in the surrounding areas significantly, but the overall effect is still positive. According to the results of the model, the paper gives the corresponding policy suggestions, and provides the decision basis for the idea of adjusting the population distribution by the industrial distribution.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2

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