海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济增长影响研究

发布时间：2018-12-11 04:57

【摘要】：产业结构对经济增长的作用在理论和实践上已经得到了证实。产业结构的优化会促进经济增长,尤其是在一个国家经历了多年的粗放式经济增长后,产业结构对经济增长的贡献越来越重要。目前中国已经进入中等收入国家行列,随着要素红利的减少,中国经济增长的速度逐渐下降,产业结构调整成为经济增长重要动力。2016年中国海洋经济的总产值已经达到了6.8万亿元,占全国GDP的10%,而且海洋经济的增长速度高于国民经济的增长速度,海洋经济在国民经济中的地位越来越重要。相比发达国家的海洋经济,中国的海洋经济发达程度落后于西方国家,这种落后并不是要素投入的落后,而是海洋产业结构的落后,因此海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济增长的重要性更加突出。同时随着政府提出了一带一路的国家战略和供给侧改革战略,海洋经济将会得到大力发展,这些战略也为海洋产业结构调整提供了手段。所以研究海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济增长具有现实的意义。本文在总结了前人对产业结构和海洋经济研究的基础上建立了海洋经济增长函数,并把海洋产业结构高级化和合理化引入到海洋生产函数,得出了海洋产业结构变动对海洋经济增长的理论模型。其中对于海洋产业结构高级化本文采用海洋第三产业产值与第二产业产值之比来衡量;对海洋产业结构合理化本文采用了泰尔指数来衡量。其次控制变量本文选择了资本和劳动,分别用固定资产投资和海洋从业人数来衡量。本研究收集1996-2014年11个沿海省市的海洋数据,通过面板数据模型估计了海洋经济增长函数,并验证了各变量对海洋经济增长的影响。最后本文还研究海洋第一、二、三产对海洋经济增量的影响,以确定我国目前海洋经济是以什么产业为主导地位发展的。通过对我国海洋经济发展的现状研究和计量模型分析,本文得出了以下结论:(1)我国海洋经济发展不平衡,各地区差异很大。东海海洋经济发展比较发达,南海比较落后。(2)我国海洋经济的规模经济效应并没有结束,要素红利还在,加大对海洋经济的投入对海洋经济的发展作用还很重要。尤其是海洋从业人数不足,劳动投入可以带来海洋经济的快速增长。(3)产业结构高级化对海洋经济增长有显著的正影响,同时海洋产业结构合理化对海洋经济增长影响比较小,而且不显著。这说明我国海洋经济发展中技术引进和吸收比较成功,同时海洋各产业间要素流动不自由,要素不能从低效率部门很快流入高效率部门。(4)海洋各产业中,海洋第二产业对海洋经济增量贡献最大,说明我国海洋经济还是以第二产业为主导,距离发达国家海洋经济以第三产业为主导还有一定路程。最后本文在研究的基础上给出了一些合理的建议来发展海洋经济。首先,海洋经济发展应当实行区域差异化发展,对于比较发达的地区,应该更加关注海洋产业结构的调整,对于比较落后的地区,应加大要素投入,尤其是基础设施的建设。其次,规范海洋产业各部门的制度,加大海洋人才的培训,从而减少海洋各产业部门之间要素流动的障碍,使得高效率部门得到更多要素,更好的发展海洋经济。最后,要发挥海洋第一、二、三产业各自的优势,更合理的发展海洋经济,尤其是第三产业,要大力发展第三产业,转变海洋经济的主导产业,从而向发达的海洋经济体靠拢。
[Abstract]:The role of industrial structure on economic growth has been proved in theory and practice. The optimization of industrial structure will promote economic growth, especially after a country has experienced many years of extensive economic growth, the contribution of industrial structure to economic growth is becoming more and more important. At present, China has entered the ranks of middle-income countries. With the reduction of the element bonus, the speed of China's economic growth is gradually declining, and the industrial structure adjustment has become an important power of economic growth. The total output value of China's marine economy has reached 6,8 trillion yuan in 2016, accounting for 10% of the country's GDP. Moreover, the growth rate of the marine economy is higher than that of the national economy, and the position of the marine economy in the national economy is becoming more and more important. Compared with the marine economy of the developed countries, the development of the marine economy of China lags behind the western countries, which is not the backward of the input of the elements, but the backward of the industrial structure of the ocean, so the change of the marine industrial structure is more important to the growth of the marine economy. At the same time, as the government has proposed a country strategy and supply-side reform strategy with one path, the marine economy will be vigorously developed, and these strategies also provide means for the structural adjustment of the marine industry. So it is of realistic significance to study the changes of the marine industrial structure to the growth of the marine economy. Based on the research of the industrial structure and the marine economy, this paper establishes the function of ocean economic growth, and introduces the high-level and rationalization of the marine industrial structure into the ocean production function, and draws the theoretical model of the change of the marine industrial structure to the economic growth of the ocean. In this paper, the ratio of the output value of the third industry and the output value of the second industry is measured for the high-level of the marine industrial structure, and the taire index is used to measure the industrial structure of the marine industry. The second control variable is the choice of capital and labor, which is measured by the investment of fixed assets and the number of marine employees, respectively. In this study, the ocean data of 11 coastal provinces and cities in 1996-2014 were collected, and the function of ocean economic growth was estimated through the panel data model, and the effect of the variables on the growth of the marine economy was also verified. In the end, the paper also studies the influence of the first, second and third production of the sea on the increment of the marine economy, so as to determine what industry is the dominant development of the marine economy in our country. Through the analysis of the present situation and the measurement model of the development of the marine economy in China, the following conclusions are drawn: (1) The development of the marine economy in China is not balanced, and the regional difference is great. The economic development of the marine economy in the East China Sea is relatively developed, and the South China Sea is relatively backward. (2) The scale and economic effect of the marine economy in China is not over, and the element bonus is still in, and it is also important to increase the contribution to the marine economy to the development of the marine economy. In particular, the number of offshore workers is not enough, and the labor input can bring the rapid growth of the marine economy. (3) The high-level of the industrial structure has a significant positive impact on the growth of the marine economy, while the rationalization of the marine industrial structure has a small impact on the growth of the marine economy, and is not significant. This means that the introduction and absorption of technology in the development of marine economy in our country are successful, while the flow of elements between the various industries of the sea is not free, and the factors can not flow into the high-efficiency department from the low-efficiency department. (4) In the marine industry, the second industry of the ocean has contributed most to the increment of the marine economy, which indicates that the marine economy of our country is dominated by the second industry, and the marine economy of the developed countries has a certain distance from the tertiary industry. At last, some reasonable suggestions are given on the basis of the study to develop the marine economy. First, the development of marine economy should carry out regional differential development. For more developed areas, it should pay more attention to the adjustment of the industrial structure of the ocean. For the backward areas, the element investment, especially the construction of the infrastructure, should be increased. Second, regulate the system of various sectors of the marine industry and increase the training of the marine talents, thus reducing the obstacles to the flow of factors between the various industrial sectors of the sea, so that the high-efficiency department can obtain more elements and better develop the marine economy. In the end, we should give full play to the advantages of the first, second and third industries of the ocean, to develop the marine economy more reasonably, especially the tertiary industry, to develop the tertiary industry and transform the leading industry of the marine economy, so as to close to the developed marine economy.
【学位授予单位】：上海海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：P74

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