长江经济带产业结构转型升级对经济增长的贡献与影响分析
发布时间：2019-02-14 10:36
【摘要】：随着我国社会经济的发展进步,“新常态”下长江经济带经济发展的特点更加显现。“十二五”发展时期,长江经济带经济年均增长速度略微降低为7.2%,经济下行压力加大,环境、要素资源约束问题也开始显露。如何在“十三五”的深耕之年挖掘长江经济带经济新增长点,更好地促进产业结构转型升级成为学者们较为关注的重点。本文基于以上新时期新背景,尝试分析上述问题。本文的成果希望能为决策制定者规划长江经济带经济发展政策提供依据,对长江经济带未来的发展带来一定的现实意义。本文选取20个时间节点,分析了1995年以来长江经济带产业结构转型升级对经济增长的影响,研究内容和主要结论包括以下几个方面:(1)长江经济带产业结构转型升级对经济增长的贡献分析。以市域为研究单元,通过VAR模型研究长江经济带第一产业各部门、第二产业各部门、第三产业各部门对经济增长的贡献率。结果发现,长江经济带第一产业中农业对经济增长的贡献率最高;第二产业中制造业、建筑业对地区经济增长的贡献较为明显,对经济的贡献率较为明显;第三产业中房地产对经济增长的贡献率仍然占据主要地位,其后是批发和零售业,金融业以及住宿和餐饮业。(2)长江经济带产业转型升级的测度。本章是产业转型升级对经济增长的理论准备部分,第一小节先对长江经济带经济发展的现状,以及产业转型升级特征进行描述,并构建了产业结构合理化、高级化、战略新兴化、低碳环保化指标来综合评价产业结构升级。结果表明:产业结构合理化水平TL指数在零轴上方持续裕兴,即应进一步加强长江经济带产业间协调程度,需要进一步深化三次产业间资源的合理配置;碳排放量最大,能源消耗量最多的第二产业在长江经济带国民经济中所占比重明显过重,应更加重视战略新兴化和低碳环保的辅助效果。(3)分析产业结构转型升级与经济增长的相互作用影响机制。结果说明:长江经济带产业结构转型升级总体趋势是平稳向好的,在经济“新常态”的新时期新背景下,传统产业的优势逐渐弱化,产业结构转型升级才是长江经济带经济发展的新动能的蕴藏之地。长江经济带在产业结构转型升级的过程中不仅要注重产业结构合理化、高级化,也要对产业结构战略性新兴化与低碳环保化的辅助作用重视起来。在“十三五”的深耕之年,长江经济带应该在党中央的正确带领之下,继续坚定不移地推行供给侧结构性改革,推行技术创新在低碳产业环保领域的应用,顺应时代潮流与经济脉搏,不断挖掘经济增长产业生产新要素,促进战略新兴产业蓬勃发展。
[Abstract]:With the development of China's social economy, the characteristics of the economic development of the Yangtze River Economic Zone under the "New normal" are more apparent. During the development period of the 12th Five-Year Plan, the average annual economic growth rate of the Yangtze River Economic Belt decreased slightly to 7.2, and the downward pressure of the economy increased, and the problems of the environment and the resource constraints of the elements began to emerge. How to excavate the new economic growth point of the Yangtze economic belt in the year of the 13th Five-Year Plan, and how to promote the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure have become the focus that scholars pay more attention to. Based on the new background above, this paper tries to analyze the above problems. The results of this paper hope to provide the basis for the decision makers to plan the economic development policies of the Yangtze Economic Belt and bring some practical significance to the future development of the Yangtze Economic Belt. In this paper, 20 time nodes are selected to analyze the impact of the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure of the Yangtze Economic Belt on economic growth since 1995. The research contents and main conclusions include the following aspects: (1) the contribution of industrial structure transformation and upgrading to economic growth in the Yangtze economic belt. Taking the city area as the research unit, this paper studies the contribution rate of the primary industry, the secondary industry and the tertiary industry to the economic growth in the Yangtze River economic belt by means of the VAR model. The results show that agriculture has the highest contribution to economic growth in the primary industry of the Yangtze River economic belt, while the manufacturing industry and the construction industry in the secondary industry contribute more obviously to the regional economic growth, and the contribution rate to the economy is more obvious. The contribution rate of real estate to economic growth is still dominant in the tertiary industry, followed by wholesale and retail trade, financial industry, accommodation and catering industry. (2) the measure of industrial transformation and upgrading in the Yangtze Economic Belt. This chapter is the theoretical preparation part of the industrial transformation and upgrading to the economic growth. The first section describes the current situation of the economic development of the Yangtze economic belt and the characteristics of the industrial transformation and upgrading, and constructs the rationalization and upgrading of the industrial structure. Strategic Xinghua, low-carbon environmental protection indicators to comprehensive evaluation of industrial structure upgrading. The results show that the reasonable level of industrial structure, TL index, continues to be Yuxing above the zero axis, that is, we should further strengthen the degree of coordination among industries in the Yangtze economic belt, and further deepen the rational allocation of resources among the three industries. The second industry, which has the largest carbon emissions and the highest energy consumption, has a significantly excessive proportion in the national economy of the Yangtze Economic Belt. We should pay more attention to the auxiliary effect of strategy emerging and low-carbon environmental protection. (3) analyze the interaction mechanism between industrial structure transformation and economic growth. The results show that the overall trend of the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure in the Yangtze economic belt is stable and good. In the new era and new background of the economic "new normal", the advantages of the traditional industries are gradually weakened. The transformation and upgrading of industrial structure is the potential of the new momentum of economic development in the Yangtze economic belt. In the process of the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure, the Yangtze economic belt should not only pay attention to the rationalization and upgrading of the industrial structure, but also attach importance to the auxiliary role of the strategic emerging and low-carbon environmental protection of the industrial structure. In the year of the 13th Five-Year Plan, under the correct leadership of the Party Central Committee, the Yangtze Economic Belt should continue to unswervingly carry out supply-side structural reforms and promote the application of technological innovation in the field of environmental protection in low-carbon industries. In keeping with the trend of the times and the pulse of economy, we constantly excavate the new elements of economic growth industry and promote the vigorous development of strategic emerging industries.
【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127
本文编号：2422130
[Abstract]:With the development of China's social economy, the characteristics of the economic development of the Yangtze River Economic Zone under the "New normal" are more apparent. During the development period of the 12th Five-Year Plan, the average annual economic growth rate of the Yangtze River Economic Belt decreased slightly to 7.2, and the downward pressure of the economy increased, and the problems of the environment and the resource constraints of the elements began to emerge. How to excavate the new economic growth point of the Yangtze economic belt in the year of the 13th Five-Year Plan, and how to promote the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure have become the focus that scholars pay more attention to. Based on the new background above, this paper tries to analyze the above problems. The results of this paper hope to provide the basis for the decision makers to plan the economic development policies of the Yangtze Economic Belt and bring some practical significance to the future development of the Yangtze Economic Belt. In this paper, 20 time nodes are selected to analyze the impact of the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure of the Yangtze Economic Belt on economic growth since 1995. The research contents and main conclusions include the following aspects: (1) the contribution of industrial structure transformation and upgrading to economic growth in the Yangtze economic belt. Taking the city area as the research unit, this paper studies the contribution rate of the primary industry, the secondary industry and the tertiary industry to the economic growth in the Yangtze River economic belt by means of the VAR model. The results show that agriculture has the highest contribution to economic growth in the primary industry of the Yangtze River economic belt, while the manufacturing industry and the construction industry in the secondary industry contribute more obviously to the regional economic growth, and the contribution rate to the economy is more obvious. The contribution rate of real estate to economic growth is still dominant in the tertiary industry, followed by wholesale and retail trade, financial industry, accommodation and catering industry. (2) the measure of industrial transformation and upgrading in the Yangtze Economic Belt. This chapter is the theoretical preparation part of the industrial transformation and upgrading to the economic growth. The first section describes the current situation of the economic development of the Yangtze economic belt and the characteristics of the industrial transformation and upgrading, and constructs the rationalization and upgrading of the industrial structure. Strategic Xinghua, low-carbon environmental protection indicators to comprehensive evaluation of industrial structure upgrading. The results show that the reasonable level of industrial structure, TL index, continues to be Yuxing above the zero axis, that is, we should further strengthen the degree of coordination among industries in the Yangtze economic belt, and further deepen the rational allocation of resources among the three industries. The second industry, which has the largest carbon emissions and the highest energy consumption, has a significantly excessive proportion in the national economy of the Yangtze Economic Belt. We should pay more attention to the auxiliary effect of strategy emerging and low-carbon environmental protection. (3) analyze the interaction mechanism between industrial structure transformation and economic growth. The results show that the overall trend of the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure in the Yangtze economic belt is stable and good. In the new era and new background of the economic "new normal", the advantages of the traditional industries are gradually weakened. The transformation and upgrading of industrial structure is the potential of the new momentum of economic development in the Yangtze economic belt. In the process of the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure, the Yangtze economic belt should not only pay attention to the rationalization and upgrading of the industrial structure, but also attach importance to the auxiliary role of the strategic emerging and low-carbon environmental protection of the industrial structure. In the year of the 13th Five-Year Plan, under the correct leadership of the Party Central Committee, the Yangtze Economic Belt should continue to unswervingly carry out supply-side structural reforms and promote the application of technological innovation in the field of environmental protection in low-carbon industries. In keeping with the trend of the times and the pulse of economy, we constantly excavate the new elements of economic growth industry and promote the vigorous development of strategic emerging industries.
【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 曹虹剑;贺正楚;熊勇清;;模块化、产业标准与创新驱动发展——基于战略性新兴产业的研究[J];管理科学学报;2016年10期
2 薛漫天;;长江经济带制造业布局的重点方向及推进策略[J];经济纵横;2016年06期
3 杜军;;中国潜在产出的测算及增长趋势预测[J];人力资源管理;2016年01期
4 丹青;;新常态下,我们需要怎样的“GDP”[J];人民周刊;2015年12期
5 李裕瑞;杨乾龙;曹智;;长江经济带农业发展的现状特征与模式转型[J];地理科学进展;2015年11期
6 李建豹;黄贤金;;基于空间面板模型的碳排放影响因素分析——以长江经济带为例[J];长江流域资源与环境;2015年10期
7 李学林;;中国经济增长速度放缓的理论与实证分析——基于扩展的哈罗德—多马增长模型[J];首都经济贸易大学学报;2015年02期
8 林毅夫;;什么是经济新常态[J];小康(财智);2014年10期
9 陆大道;;建设经济带是经济发展布局的最佳选择——长江经济带经济发展的巨大潜力[J];地理科学;2014年07期
10 黄庆华;周志波;刘晗;;长江经济带产业结构演变及政策取向[J];经济理论与经济管理;2014年06期
相关博士学位论文 前2条
1 王文嘉;金融周期与中国产出缺口的实证研究[D];吉林大学;2015年
2 郭佩颖;产业结构变动与经济增长的收敛性[D];吉林大学;2013年
相关硕士学位论文 前1条
1 王小悦;辽宁省制造业转型升级与经济增长的关系研究[D];大连海事大学;2015年
，本文编号：2422130
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/jingjilunwen/chanyejingjilunwen/2422130.html
