我国风电产业链柔性与环境动荡性匹配研究

发布时间：2019-04-11 16:32

【摘要】：风电作为可再生能源,由于其资源丰富、技术成熟、商业化成本较低并具大规模开发潜力,得到了政策支持,成为我国新能源产业发展战略的重要内容,特别是随着2006年《可再生能源法》在我国的正式实施,风电建设进入了快速发展阶段。目前,我国风电装机容量已居世界第一,并初步形成了由研发设计、原材料供应、风电零部件制造、风电整机制造、风电场开发建设及运营、风电电网接入以及相关服务行业所组成的风电产业链。风电产业链受政策、法规、市场、技术、电价、电网设施等诸多因素的影响,其内外环境不确定性高、动态变化快、互动关系复杂,给其稳定发展带来诸多问题,也对其柔性提出了更高的要求。在复杂动态环境下,风电产业要实现可持续成长,必须提高自身的灵活性和适应能力,及时有效地应对内外环境的变化。因此,本文探究了风电产业链柔性和其面临的环境动荡性问题,建立风电产业链柔性和环境动荡性测度指标体系；引入耦合度与耦合协调度的概念,构建风电产业链柔性与环境动荡性匹配模型,提出基于功效函数的匹配度测度方法以及风电产业链柔性与环境动荡性耦合度和耦合协调度划分标准及状态分析表；通过实证分析,对提出的匹配模型进行验证,并针对所得的匹配结果,判断和定位我国风电产业链柔性与环境动荡性的匹配水平；最后分析产业链柔性尚存的不足之处,并提出增强我国风电产业链柔性的发展建议。本论文为风电产业链柔性与环境动荡性匹配研究这一新问题提供了新的评价方法和分析工具,也为风电产业链的可持续成长及产业链的优化升级提供了新的理论视角。
[Abstract]:Wind power as a renewable energy, because of its rich resources, mature technology, low commercial cost and large-scale development potential, has been supported by policy, and has become an important part of the development strategy of China's new energy industry. Especially, with the implementation of Renewable Energy Law in China in 2006, wind power construction has entered a rapid development stage. At present, the installed capacity of wind power in China has ranked first in the world, and it has been initially formed by R & D design, supply of raw materials, manufacturing of wind power components, manufacture of wind turbines, development, construction and operation of wind farms. Wind power grid access and related services industry composed of wind power industry chain. The wind power industry chain is influenced by many factors such as policy, regulation, market, technology, electricity price, power grid facilities and so on. Its internal and external environment uncertainty is high, dynamic change is fast, interaction relation is complex, which brings many problems to its stable development. It also puts forward higher requirements for its flexibility. In the complex and dynamic environment, in order to achieve sustainable growth of wind power industry, it is necessary to improve its flexibility and adaptability, and to deal with the changes of internal and external environment in a timely and effective manner. Therefore, this paper explores the flexibility of wind power industry chain and its environmental volatility, and establishes the measurement index system of wind power industry chain flexibility and environmental volatility. By introducing the concepts of coupling degree and coupling coordination degree, a matching model of wind power industry chain flexibility and environmental volatility is constructed. The matching degree measure method based on efficacy function, coupling degree and coupling coordination degree standard and state analysis table of wind power industry chain flexibility and environmental turbulence are proposed. Through empirical analysis, the proposed matching model is verified, and according to the matching results, the matching level of flexibility and environmental volatility of wind power industry chain in China is judged and positioned. Finally, the shortcomings of the flexibility of the industrial chain are analyzed, and some suggestions to enhance the flexibility of the wind power industry chain in China are put forward. This paper provides a new evaluation method and analysis tool for the matching of wind power industry chain flexibility and environmental volatility, and also provides a new theoretical perspective for the sustainable growth of wind power industry chain and the optimization and upgrading of wind power industry chain.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.61

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