中国货币工具规则的检验与比较

发布时间：2018-01-14 09:11

本文关键词：中国货币工具规则的检验与比较　出处：《统计与决策》2017年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：究竟是利率规则还是货币量规则更适合进入新常态的中国,目前还尚无定论。为此,文章从中国国情出发,分别选取狭义货币供给和银行同业拆借利率构建时变参数泰勒规则和时变参数麦克勒姆规则,通过理论、模型参数、福利损失函数分析等方面对两种不同规则在中国的适用性进行比较。结果证实,中国在2008年以前麦克勒姆规则符合当时的时代需要,能够有效地刺激产出,以其作为货币政策的指导原则是合理可行的;而2008年之后,货币当局逐渐弱化了对货币供应量的管控,市场利率渐渐兴起,中国政府推进的利率市场化改革顺应了时代要求。
[Abstract]:Whether the interest rate rule or the monetary quantity rule is more suitable for entering the new normal China, there is no conclusion yet. Therefore, the article starts from the national conditions of China. Select narrow money supply and interbank offered rate to construct time-varying parameter Taylor rule and time-varying parameter McLum rule, through theory, model parameters. The analysis of welfare loss function compares the applicability of the two different rules in China. The results show that the McLum rules in China before 2008 meet the needs of the times. It is reasonable and feasible to stimulate output effectively as the guiding principle of monetary policy; After 2008, the monetary authority gradually weakened the control of the money supply, the market interest rate gradually rose, the Chinese government promoted the interest rate marketization reform to conform to the times request.
【作者单位】：华侨大学统计学院-数量经济研究院;
【基金】：中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目·华侨大学哲学社会科学青年学者成长工程项目(16SKGC-QT04)
【分类号】：F822.0
【正文快照】： 0引言在经济新常态的影响下,未来货币政策的新常态面临着诸多调整。目前,主要存在三种货币工具规则:弗里德曼规则、泰勒规则、麦克勒姆规则。一般情况下,货币当局的货币政策中介目标选择应当满足两个条件:一是货币当局可以控制中介目标的量,二是中介目标不能波动过大[1]。因此

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