影子银行规模波动对金融稳定的溢出效应

发布时间：2018-01-15 01:34

本文关键词：影子银行规模波动对金融稳定的溢出效应　出处：《经济学家》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：影子银行的发展一方面可以通过金融资源的合理配置促进金融稳定,另一方面由于其内部的风险累积和向外传染极易对金融体系稳定性产生负面影响。论文利用2009年1月至2015年12月期间我国影子银行的规模数据以及通过合成指标法计算所得的金融稳定性指数,基于所构建的TVP-VAR模型检验了我国影子银行规模波动对金融稳定性的影响。结果表明,影子银行规模扩张有利于金融资源的均衡配置,从而在短期内对金融稳定具有促进作用;影子银行体系内风险会逐步累积并向正规金融体系与实体经济传染,因此影子银行规模扩张对金融稳定的负面溢出效应具有时滞;加强金融监管能够防范影子银行体系内风险的交叉传递,弱化其对于金融稳定性的不利冲击。为此,应该关注影子银行规模扩张的"双刃剑"效应,通过科学地监管与合理地引导,在繁荣影子银行业务的同时减少其对金融稳定的负面冲击。
[Abstract]:On the one hand, the development of shadow banking to the rational allocation of financial resources to promote financial stability through, on the other hand, due to its internal risk accumulation and outward dyeing is easy to produce negative effects on the stability of the financial system. The January 2009 to December 2015 data of China's shadow banking scale and financial stability index obtained by synthetic index method calculation the TVP-VAR model is constructed to test the impact of the scale of fluctuation of China's shadow banking based on financial stability. The results show that the size of the shadow banking expansion is conducive to the balanced configuration of financial resources, so in the short term can promote financial stability; the shadow banking system risk will gradually accumulate and to the formal financial system and the entity therefore, economic contagion, the shadow banking expansion with time delay on the negative spillover effect of financial stability; to strengthen financial supervision Enough to prevent cross transmission of shadow banking system risk, weaken the adverse impact for financial stability. Therefore, attention should be paid to the shadow banking expansion of the "double-edged sword" effect, through scientific supervision and reasonable guide, while the prosperity of the shadow banking business to reduce its negative impact on financial stability.

【作者单位】：南京大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“‘影子银行’交叉传染风险度量及控制机制研究”(14BGL031) 中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心的资助
【分类号】：F832.3
【正文快照】： 一、问题的提出影子银行的形成与发展缘于金融歧视、金融抑制与金融创新。金融歧视的存在使得金融资源在社会生产各部门之间的分配出现供需不均,而金融抑制又进一步激化了金融资源配置过程中供需不均的结构性矛盾,于是金融机构与工具的创新就不断涌现。在此背景下,影子银行机

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