新常态背景下我国货币政策工具比较分析

发布时间：2018-01-19 12:21

本文关键词： 新常态货币政策工具 VAR　出处：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2007年之前,中国经济飞速发展,GDP的年增长率不断刷新。在2010年底我国终结了日本长达四十多年的世界第二大经济体的地位。但是在经历了经济的高速增长后,中国的经济的高速增长步伐放缓,前期高速增长中累积问题和弊端的凸显,产业结构亟待调整和升级,改革难度不断加大。学者将这一现象称为我国经济的新常态。货币政策已经成为各国调节宏观经济的有效手段,而货币政策工具是央行为了达到货币政策的目标而采取的措施。文章通过对新常态时期我国数量型和价格型货币政策工具的研究,以期找到适合这一时期的货币政策工具。文章从货币政策理论出发,结合我国目前新常态下的货币环境,分析了我国货币政策工具的使用和货币政策工具的传导渠道特征以及现在面临的问题。在实证分析方面选择新常态时期的2010-2016年的月度数据,以广义货币供应量M2和上海同业拆借率的隔夜R为数量型和价格型货币政策操作工具代表,对产出GDP和价格水平CPI建立VAR模型进行实证分析,分析发现无论是利率R还是广义货币量M2与产出GDP和价格水平CPI均存在长期的协整关系。从脉冲响应函数上来看GDP和CPI对于来自M2的冲击呈现持久的正向变动的关系,而对来自R的冲击呈现持久的负向变动的关系,说明在“新常态”下两种货币政策工具均为有效的。就两种货币政策工具的对比而言数量型货币政策工具在可控性水平上较优而价格型工具则更显著。同时,为了在时间维度上分析数量型和价格型的货币政策工具的效果,选择同样的数据对间接调控阶段的2001-2007年建立的VAR模型进行分析,纵向对比发现数量型货币政策工具效果随着时间减弱而价格型随时间增加。文章的最后分析了目前我国数量型和价格型货币政策工具存在的一些问题,结合新常态调控稳定的背景得出数量型和价格型货币政策工具将在未来很长的一段时间内共存。所以,在新常态阶段不仅要稳步推进利率市场化的进行还要对现有的货币政策工具进行优化并扩大货币供应量的测量口径。
[Abstract]:Before 2007, China's economy was booming. In end of 2010, China ended the position of Japan as the world's second largest economy for more than 40 years. But after the rapid economic growth. China's rapid economic growth is slowing down, the accumulation of problems and drawbacks in the early period of rapid growth highlights, the industrial structure needs to be adjusted and upgraded. The reform is becoming more and more difficult. Scholars call this phenomenon the new normal of China's economy. Monetary policy has become an effective means for countries to regulate the macro-economy. Monetary policy tools are the measures taken by the central bank in order to achieve the goal of monetary policy. This paper studies the quantitative and price monetary policy instruments in the new normal period. In order to find the appropriate monetary policy tools for this period. This article from the monetary policy theory, combined with the current monetary environment under the new normal in China. This paper analyzes the use of monetary policy tools in China, the characteristics of transmission channels of monetary policy instruments and the current problems. In the empirical analysis, we choose the monthly data of 2010-2016 in the new normal period. Taking M2 of broad money supply and overnight R of Shanghai interbank offered rate as the representative of quantitative and price-type monetary policy operating tools, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the VAR model of output GDP and price-level CPI. It is found that both interest rate R and generalized monetary value M2 have long-term cointegration relationship with output GDP and price level CPI. From the impulse response function, we can see the impact of GDP and CPI on M2 from the point of view of impulse response function. Presents a long-lasting positive relationship. On the other hand, the impact from R shows a lasting negative change. It shows that the two monetary policy instruments are effective under the "New normal". Compared with the two monetary policy instruments, the quantitative monetary policy instruments are better in terms of controllability and the price-based instruments are more significant. At the same time. In order to analyze the effects of quantitative and price-based monetary policy tools in the time dimension, the same data is selected to analyze the VAR model established in the stage of indirect regulation from 2001 to 2007. The longitudinal comparison shows that the effectiveness of quantitative monetary policy tools decreases with time while the price type increases with time. Finally, the paper analyzes some problems existing in quantitative and price-based monetary policy instruments in China. Combined with the background of the new normal regulation and stability, it is concluded that quantitative and price monetary policy tools will coexist for a long time in the future. In the new normal stage, we should not only advance the marketization of interest rate steadily, but also optimize the existing monetary policy tools and expand the measurement of money supply.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F822.0

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