利率市场化与商业银行行为选择研究

发布时间：2018-01-22 01:36

本文关键词： 利率市场化商业银行行为选择总量检验分量检验　出处：《武汉大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,中国经济增速放缓,商业银行的经营与发展面临着巨大的压力,而利率市场化则给我国的商业银行体系带来了新的挑战与机遇。利率市场化可以给予投资者与存款人更多回报,扩大与增加商业银行的资金来源,有利于商业银行增加负债规模、提升竞争力;但利率市场化也有可能降低商业银行的经营利润率,提高不良贷款率水平,给银行业的发展带来负面影响。在此背景下研究利率市场化对商业银行行为选择的影响、规避其带来的风险,并提出风险防范的政策建议具有非常重要的现实意义。本文首先使用货币经济学的相关理论,分析了利率市场化对商业银行行为选择的影响,然后基于中国16家上市商业银行2008年以来的样本数据,构建向量自回归模型,从不良贷款率、信贷量、贷存比、利息收益率、资本充足率五个方面,进行了总量检验(将所有商业银行视为一个整体)与分量检验(将商业银行分成不同类型)。研究结果显示利率市场化对商业银行的行为选择产生了较大的影响,不但压缩了商业银行的盈利水平,而且增加了商业银行的经营风险。基于结论我们从重视宏观环境风险、强化金融监管、完善银行内部风险控制等方面提出了改进的建议,并结合当前的金融发展动态,提出了商业银行利用互联网金融的创新模式对冲利率市场化带来的负面影响的政策建议。本文的创新之处在于:首先建立向量自回归模型,从总量检验与分量检验的不同维度对比研究了利率市场化对商业银行行为选择的影响;其次基于实证结果,提出商业银行应对利率市场化冲击的相关政策建议,同时结合当前互联网金融的发展,提出商业银行要与时俱进的转型,利用互联网金融的创新模式来主动适应利率市场化的影响。论文的不足之处在于:作为一名在职攻读学位的研究生,我的理论分析水平有限,而且金融环境变化日新月异,关于商业银行的行为选择的相关分析还可以进一步完善,我将在今后继续深入研究。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's economic growth has slowed, and commercial banks are facing tremendous pressure on their operation and development. The marketization of interest rate brings new challenges and opportunities to the commercial banking system of our country. The marketization of interest rate can give investors and depositors more returns and expand and increase the sources of funds of commercial banks. It is beneficial for commercial banks to increase the scale of debt and enhance their competitiveness; However, the marketization of interest rates may also reduce the operating profit rate of commercial banks and improve the level of non-performing loans. Under this background, this paper studies the influence of interest rate liberalization on the behavior choice of commercial banks, and avoids the risks brought by it. And put forward the policy recommendations of risk prevention has a very important practical significance. Firstly, using the relevant theory of monetary economics, this paper analyzes the impact of interest rate marketization on the behavior choice of commercial banks. Then based on the sample data of 16 Chinese listed commercial banks since 2008, a vector autoregressive model is constructed, which includes five aspects: non-performing loan ratio, credit volume, loan-deposit ratio, interest rate and capital adequacy ratio. Aggregate checks (all commercial banks considered as a whole) and component tests (classification of commercial banks into different types) were carried out. The results show that the marketization of interest rate has a great influence on the behavior choice of commercial banks. It not only compacts the profit level of commercial banks, but also increases the operating risks of commercial banks. Based on the conclusion, we should pay attention to macro environmental risks and strengthen financial supervision. Improve the bank internal risk control and other aspects of the recommendations for improvement, and combined with the current financial development. This paper puts forward the policy recommendations of commercial banks to use the innovative mode of Internet finance to hedge the negative impact of interest rate marketization. The innovation of this paper lies in: firstly, the vector autoregressive model is established. From the different dimensions of aggregate test and component test, this paper studies the influence of interest rate marketization on the behavior choice of commercial banks. Secondly, based on the empirical results, put forward the commercial banks to deal with the impact of market-oriented interest rate policy recommendations, and combined with the current development of Internet finance, the commercial banks should keep pace with the transition. Using the innovative mode of Internet finance to adapt to the impact of interest rate marketization. The shortcomings of this paper are: as an in-service graduate student, my theoretical analysis level is limited. Moreover, the financial environment is changing with each passing day, and the relevant analysis on the behavior choice of commercial banks can be further improved. I will continue to study deeply in the future.
【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.5;F832.33

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