我国金融周期对FDI流入的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-29 04:07

本文关键词： 金融周期金融市场规模金融中介效率金融市场价格 FDI流入　出处：《广西大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：外商直接投资流入对我国经济社会持续发展起到十分重要的积极作用,但是随着全球经济、金融发展的不确定性增大,金融周期波动愈加频繁,全球外商直接投资流动减少,我国的外商直接投资势头也相应减弱。在此背景下,研究将我国金融周期和FDI流入联系起来,以期从周期视角探究金融因素对我国FDI流入的影响。根据金融市场发展情况分类,金融周期具体划分为金融市场规模周期、金融中介效率周期和金融市场价格周期,研究通过HP滤波法剔除长期趋势值,呈现周期波动值,全面考察三类金融周期对FDI流入规模和流入速度的影响情况。首先,分析我国金融周期与FDI的流入现状;然后,构建实证模型测算三类金融周期,通过VAR模型和广义脉冲响应分析论证规范性分析的内容,并在此基础上考察金融市场规模周期、金融中介效率周期和金融市场价格周期对我国外商直接投资的规模和速度是否具有差异性影响。实证结果显示,FDI流入规模和流入速度与我国金融市场规模周期正相关,与金融市场价格周期负相关,而对金融中介效率周期产生不同反应。最后,针对实证研究结论提出通过深化金融改革、加强金融监管和优化金融结构保持金融市场规模周期上升,通过加强银行业发展、扩大金融开放和加强产品服务创新保持金融中介效率周期上升,通过坚持实施稳健的货币政策和加速完善利率、汇率市场化形成机制保持金融市场价格周期稳定等建议,促使在经济发展新常态下我国保持FDI稳定流入,充分发挥FDI对国民经济的溢出效应,实现稳增长和调结构的发展目标。
[Abstract]:The inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) plays a very important and positive role in the sustainable economic and social development of our country. However, with the increasing uncertainty of the global economy and financial development, the financial cycle fluctuates more frequently. With the decrease of global foreign direct investment (FDI), the trend of foreign direct investment (FDI) in China is also weakened. In this context, the study links the financial cycle of China with the inflow of FDI. From the perspective of cycle to explore the impact of financial factors on the inflow of FDI in China. According to the development of financial markets, the financial cycle is specifically divided into financial market scale cycle. Financial intermediation efficiency cycle and financial market price cycle, the HP filtering method is used to eliminate the long-term trend value, showing periodic fluctuations. The influence of three kinds of financial cycles on the inflow scale and speed of FDI is investigated. Firstly, the current situation of financial cycle and FDI inflow in China is analyzed. Then, the empirical model is constructed to measure the three types of financial cycles, through the VAR model and generalized impulse response analysis to demonstrate the content of normative analysis, and on this basis to investigate the financial market scale cycle. Whether the efficiency cycle of financial intermediation and the price cycle of financial market have different influences on the scale and speed of FDI in China. FDI inflow scale and inflow speed are positively correlated with the financial market scale cycle, negatively correlated with the financial market price cycle, but different to the financial intermediation efficiency cycle. Finally. In view of the empirical research conclusions, it is proposed that through deepening financial reform, strengthening financial supervision and optimizing financial structure to keep the scale of financial market cycle rising, through strengthening the development of the banking industry. We will expand financial openness and strengthen product and service innovation to keep the efficiency cycle of financial intermediation going up, by adhering to a prudent monetary policy and accelerating the improvement of interest rates. Exchange rate marketization mechanism to maintain the stability of the financial market price cycle, promote the new normal economic development in China to maintain a stable inflow of FDI, give full play to the spillover effect of FDI on the national economy. To achieve stable growth and structural adjustment of the development goals.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6

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