资产价格错位与货币政策规则——基于修正Q理论的重新审视

发布时间：2018-01-30 10:07

本文关键词： 资产价格货币政策规则基本面Q值　出处：《国际金融研究》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文首先对经典的"托宾Q"理论进行修正,将资产的基础价值与投机价值进行分离,继而将含有资产基础价值的前瞻性利率规则引入DSGE分析框架,并对"名义利率调整→资产价值修复→实体经济复苏"这一问题展开必要探讨。研究结果表明,名义利率调整能够有效促进资产价值修复,进而拉动实体经济复苏。而近期我国资本市场活跃,但实体经济复苏缓慢的根本原因则在于实体经济周期与金融周期的错配;此外,我们仍不应忽视资产价格巨幅波动给金融体系稳定性带来的不利影响,货币当局应高度重视事前的政策疏导,以防投资者对中央银行的政策调整进行过度解读。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the classical "Tobin Q" theory is first revised to separate the underlying value of assets from the speculative value, and then the forward-looking interest rate rule with the underlying value of assets is introduced into the DSGE analysis framework. And the adjustment of "nominal interest rates" 鈫扐sset value repair. 鈫扵he research results show that nominal interest rate adjustment can effectively promote asset value recovery, and then pull the real economy recovery. In the near future, China's capital market is active. However, the fundamental reason for the slow recovery of the real economy lies in the mismatch between the real economic cycle and the financial cycle; Moreover, we should not lose sight of the adverse effects on the stability of the financial system caused by large fluctuations in asset prices, and monetary authorities should attach great importance to prior policy guidance. In case investors overinterpret central bank policy adjustments.
【作者单位】：吉林大学商学院;吉林大学;吉林大学数量经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目“我国经济发展新常态的形成机理、趋势性特征及经济政策取向研究”(15AZD&001)资助
【分类号】：F822.0;F832.5
【正文快照】： 引言资产价格错位(Asset Price Misalignments)意指由资产价格偏离其内在价值而引发的超涨或超跌的状态。通常,当资产价格较之内在价值发生小幅偏离时,投资者仅会适度修正其估值预期;而当资产价格发生严重错位时,投资者和政策制定者则会对此进行重新审视。2015年6月,我国上

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