我国家庭债务规模及债务偿还能力研究

发布时间：2018-01-30 14:39

本文关键词： 家庭债务规模偿还能力回归模型评价体系　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,受强劲的购房需求等因素的影响,我国家庭债务规模变得越来越大。适当的负债确实可以达到平滑消费、高生活质量、扩大内需的作用,为家庭取得更高的收入带来一定的动力。但是过度负债将成为一个家庭负担,还债的压力也足以将一个家庭压得透不过气,造成不良后果。因此本文利用西南财经大学中国家庭金融调查与研究中心于2013年在全国范围内开展的中国家庭金融调查搜集整理后的数据,参考国内外文献,咨询专家,并结合实际生活经验,研究分析了我国家庭债务规模及债务偿还能力。在本文研究过程中,应用了stata、Excel等统计学软件,先对我国家庭债务规模影响因素进行了述性统计,并且利用饼状图直观的分析了我国家庭债务分布情况。其次,本文应用多元回归以及逐步回归的方法,对我国家庭债务影响因素进行了筛选整合,进而建立了我国家庭债务规模影响因素回归模型,以及我国家庭房产债务规模影响因素回归模型、我国家庭经营性债务规模影响因素回归模型。再次,本文根据实际生活经验,并听取专家意见,确定了我国家庭债无偿还能力评价体系的指标,并利用层次分析法给各个指标赋予了一定的权重,最终构建了我国家庭债务偿还能力评价指标体系。本文创新性的建立了我国家庭债务规模影响因素回归模型以及我国家庭债务偿还能力评价体系,为借出款人以及银行等信贷机构是否借出款项供了理论依据。
[Abstract]:In recent years, due to the strong demand for housing and other factors, the scale of household debt in China has become larger and larger. Proper debt can indeed achieve smooth consumption, high quality of life, and expand domestic demand. But excessive debt will become a burden on the family, and the pressure to pay it will be enough to keep a family under pressure. Therefore, this paper uses the China Family Finance Survey and Research Center of Southwest University of Finance and Economics in 2013 to collect and collate the data. Referring to domestic and foreign literature, consulting experts, and combining with practical life experience, this paper studies and analyzes the scale of household debt and debt repayment ability in China. In the course of this study, stata is applied. Excel and other statistical software, first of all, the factors affecting the scale of household debt in China are described, and the pie chart is used to analyze the distribution of household debt. Secondly. This paper applies the method of multiple regression and stepwise regression to select and integrate the influencing factors of household debt in China, and then establish the regression model of influencing factors of family debt scale in China. As well as the family real estate debt scale influencing factors regression model, our country family operating debt scale factors regression model. Thirdly, according to the actual life experience, and listen to expert advice. The index of the evaluation system of the non-repayment ability of the family debt in our country is determined, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to give certain weight to each index. Finally, the evaluation index system of household debt repayment ability in China is constructed. The regression model of influencing factors of household debt scale and the evaluation system of household debt repayment ability in China are creatively established in this paper. The theoretical basis for lenders and credit institutions such as banks whether to lend money.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F126;F832.4

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