我国货币政策转型研究

发布时间：2018-01-30 19:33

本文关键词： 数量型价格型政策转型利率市场化　出处：《哈尔滨工业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：货币政策作为运用最为广泛的宏观经济调节政策,对维持资本市场稳定和促进国民经济健康发展发挥着非常重要的作用。货币政策按照政策工具、中介目标和传导机制的不同可分为数量型和价格型货币政策。所处经济时期不同所面临的宏观经济背景不同,不同类型的货币政策所产生的调节效果也不同,因此货币政策调节工具的选择应与宏观经济环境相适应。现阶段我国经济正处于转折的关键时期,宏观经济环境与过去相比也出现了许多新情况。就目前来看,我国对外贸易顺差不断扩大由此导致外汇储备大幅增长以及流动性严重过剩问题;加之金融领域影子银行规模的不断扩大、金融脱媒的日益发展,都使得货币政策实施面临的经济环境发生了变化,因此研究现阶段我国货币政策调节作用是否有效以及探讨货币政策是否需要转型是十分必要的。首先从理论方面分析数量型货币政策和价格型货币政策在目前宏观经济环境下传导机制的有效性和对经济发展的实际调节作用。由于金融市场不断完善等导致数量型货币政策对货币供应量中介目标的可测性和可控性不断降低,因此其效果的发挥受到限制;同时利率市场化以及金融创新的不断发展,价格型货币政策代表性工具——利率的作用不断增大。进一步从实证方面对比分析两类货币政策对经济的实际调节效果,构建向量自回归模型,进行脉冲响应与方差分解分析,就我国常用的存款准备金率工具与利率工具在控制广义货币供应量、治理通货膨胀、促进经济增长三个方面的货币政策效果进行对比分析,实证结果表明利率工具的调控效果优于法定存款准备金率的调控效果。但是由于我国的利率市场化尚未完成、基准利率体系不完善、资本项目并未完全放开以及投融资体制的制约使得我国货币政策转型过程中面临很多困难。最后针对我国由数量型向价格型货币政策转型过程中遇到的困难,具体提出我国货币政策转型的对策建议。对我国货币政策转型进行分析,从理论和实证两个层面找出转型的必要性,针对目前宏观经济环境,对我国货币政策实现成功转型具有重要的理论和实际指导意义。
[Abstract]:As the most widely used macroeconomic adjustment policy, monetary policy plays a very important role in maintaining the stability of capital market and promoting the healthy development of national economy. Different intermediary targets and transmission mechanisms can be divided into quantitative and price-oriented monetary policies. Different economic periods are faced with different macroeconomic backgrounds, and different types of monetary policies have different regulatory effects. Therefore, the choice of monetary policy adjustment tools should be adapted to the macroeconomic environment. At this stage, China's economy is in a critical period of transition, the macroeconomic environment compared with the past has also appeared a lot of new situations. The continuous expansion of China's foreign trade surplus leads to a large increase in foreign exchange reserves and a serious problem of excess liquidity. In addition, the continuous expansion of the scale of shadow banking in the financial field and the growing development of financial disintermediation have changed the economic environment facing the implementation of monetary policy. Therefore, it is necessary to study whether monetary policy is effective or not and whether monetary policy needs to be transformed at the present stage. First of all, it is necessary to analyze the quantitative monetary policy and price monetary policy from the theoretical point of view. The effectiveness of transmission mechanism in the economic environment and its regulating effect on economic development. As a result of the continuous improvement of financial market, the measurability and controllability of quantitative monetary policy to the intermediary target of money supply are decreasing. . Therefore, the exertion of its effect is restricted; At the same time, the interest rate marketization and the continuous development of financial innovation. The role of interest rate, the representative tool of price monetary policy, is increasing. Further, the paper analyzes the actual adjustment effect of two kinds of monetary policy from the empirical aspect, and constructs the vector autoregressive model. The impulse response and variance decomposition analysis are carried out to control the broad money supply and control inflation. The effects of monetary policy in three aspects of promoting economic growth are compared and analyzed. The empirical results show that the regulatory effect of interest rate instruments is better than the regulatory effect of legal reserve ratio. However, the interest rate marketization has not been completed in China, and the benchmark interest rate system is not perfect. The capital account has not been completely liberalized and the restriction of investment and financing system has made China face a lot of difficulties in the process of monetary policy transformation. This paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for the transformation of monetary policy in China, analyzes the transformation of monetary policy in China, and finds out the necessity of the transformation from the theoretical and empirical aspects, aiming at the current macroeconomic environment. It has important theoretical and practical guiding significance for the successful transformation of monetary policy in China.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F823.13

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