汇率双边波动下中国外汇市场压力与长短期资本的区制转移研究

发布时间：2018-02-05 05:17

本文关键词： 汇率双边波动外汇市场压力资本项目区制转移　出处：《国际金融研究》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：人民币汇率变化已经告别了持续单边升值的模式,同时资本转移规模的扩大和速度的加快增加了风险程度,迫使中国资本管制面临新的抉择。在汇率制度发展的不同阶段,因为资本项目各项的利益驱动和获取时限相异,所以区别长期和短期资本对外汇市场压力的影响程度和路径对于认知压力作用机制至关重要。马尔科夫区制转移模型体现了资本项目的子项目转移在汇率变动不同区间的相异影响,因此对于短期资本的调控可及时应对外汇市场短期资本的异常变动。长期资本在汇率不同区制影响方向的一致性使得措施的制定导向性较为统一,其中负债部分是监控重点。最后,针对外汇市场压力的风险预警机制要甄别汇率变动的不同阶段和资本的不同类型,综合进行政策模拟和监控。
[Abstract]:The change of RMB exchange rate has bid farewell to the pattern of continuous unilateral appreciation, and the expansion of capital transfer scale and the acceleration of the speed of capital transfer have increased the risk level. At different stages of the development of the exchange rate system, because of the different profit driving and obtaining time frame of each item of capital account, it is forced to face the new choice of capital control in China. Therefore, it is very important to distinguish the influence and path of long-term and short-term capital on foreign exchange market pressure. Markov regional transfer model shows that the transfer of capital account subproject is not in exchange rate change. The different effects of the same interval. Therefore, the regulation and control of short-term capital can deal with the abnormal changes of short-term capital in foreign exchange market in time. The consistency of the influence direction of long-term capital in different regions of exchange rate makes the formulation of measures more uniform. Finally, the risk warning mechanism for foreign exchange market pressure should identify different stages of exchange rate changes and different types of capital, and comprehensively carry out policy simulation and monitoring.
【作者单位】：吉林大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“人民币双边波动新常态下货币政策与汇率政策的冲突与协调研究”(15BJY156) 教育部人文社会科学基金“金融业双向开放推动下中国外汇市场压力的聚集与释放及风险预警研究”(16YJA790023) 吉林大学哲学社会科学青年学术领袖培育计划项目“开放型经济新体制与人民币国际化研究”(2015FRLX16)资助
【分类号】：F832.6
【正文快照】： 引言经济全球化的不断推进促使各国贸易和资本自由化成为不可避免的趋势,国家之间的密切联系成为常态。为了更好地融入国际社会,即使是发展中国家也逐步放开了贸易和资本市场,使得各国市场形成了统一的全球市场体系。在开放过程中,经常项目与资本项目的转移存在本质区别,经常

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