金融稳定与经济增长的区制关联性:2002-201

发布时间：2018-02-11 15:18

本文关键词： 金融稳定经济增长区制关联性马尔可夫区制转换模型　出处：《经济评论》2016年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文基于中国2002-2014年的季度数据,利用马尔可夫区制转换模型对金融稳定与经济增长的区制关联性进行实证研究。结果表明,随着经济环境的变化,金融稳定与经济增长的关系呈现出显著的区制转换特征。具体而言:在样本考察期内,经济增长对金融稳定的影响主要体现为前者对后者的抑制作用,而在经济平稳增长时期和经济复苏时期,经济增长有利于促进金融稳定;在经济复苏时期,金融稳定对经济增长具有较为显著的正向影响,而当经济处于持续高速增长时期和危机时期,金融稳定对经济增长具有负向影响。此外,相较于金融稳定对经济增长的影响,经济增长对金融稳定的影响强度更大、持续时间更长。
[Abstract]:Based on the quarterly data from 2002 to 2014 in China, this paper makes an empirical study on the relationship between financial stability and economic growth by using Markov region transition model. The results show that, with the change of economic environment, The relationship between financial stability and economic growth shows significant regional system transformation characteristics. Specifically, during the sample period, the influence of economic growth on financial stability is mainly reflected in the former's inhibitory effect on the latter. In the period of steady economic growth and economic recovery, economic growth is conducive to promoting financial stability; during the period of economic recovery, financial stability has a significant positive impact on economic growth. When the economy is in a period of sustained and rapid growth and crisis, financial stability has a negative impact on economic growth. In addition, compared with the impact of financial stability on economic growth, economic growth has a greater impact on financial stability. It lasts longer.
【作者单位】：南开大学经济学院国际经济研究所;
【分类号】：F124.1;F832

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