全球避险情绪与资本流动——“二元悖论”成因探析

发布时间：2018-02-12 08:08

本文关键词： 二元悖论三元悖论货币政策全球金融一体化　出处：《金融研究》2016年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：随着全球金融一体化程度的不断加深,影响货币政策效果的新因素和新机制不断涌现,以"三元悖论"为代表的传统开放经济分析框架也面临着诸多挑战。近期,国际上有学者结合现实观察提出了"二元悖论"的新观点,即只要存在资本自由流动,一国的货币政策就不可能自主有效,而与该国采取何种汇率制度无关。为阐明"二元悖论"背后的经济学机理,我们构建并推导融入全球避险情绪的蒙代尔-弗莱明模型,从而提出了一个有关"二元悖论"成因的理论假说:全球避险情绪上升可能削弱国内扩张性货币政策的效果。特别地,当全球避险情绪导致的风险溢价影响超过国内货币扩张程度时,货币政策甚至可能完全失效。随后,我们建立了以浮动汇率国家为样本的面板数据模型进行检验,实证结果支持了上述假说。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of global financial integration and the emergence of new factors and mechanisms affecting the effectiveness of monetary policy, the traditional open economic analysis framework, represented by the "Triple Paradox", is also facing many challenges. Some scholars in the world have put forward a new viewpoint of "dualistic paradox", which is that as long as there is free flow of capital, a country's monetary policy cannot be independent and effective. In order to clarify the economic mechanism behind the "duality paradox", we construct and deduce the Mondale Fleming model, which integrates the global risk aversion. Thus, a theoretical hypothesis about the cause of the "duality paradox" is put forward: the rise in global risk aversion may weaken the effect of domestic expansionary monetary policy. When the risk premium caused by global risk aversion exceeds the extent of domestic monetary expansion, monetary policy may even fail altogether. Subsequently, we set up a panel data model based on floating exchange rate countries to test it. The empirical results support the above hypothesis.
【作者单位】：华融证券;山东大学经济研究院;
【分类号】：F831;F821

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