宏观杠杆率冲击下的中国系统性金融风险的演化

发布时间：2018-02-21 09:44

本文关键词： 杠杆率系统性金融风险金融风险价格指标体系实体经济房地产市场金融市场外汇市场　出处：《安徽大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：宏观杠杆率冲击下,各类价格的波动反映了各部门系统性金融风险的演化。以2000—2016年中国宏观经济数据,构建"金融风险价格指标体系",分析我国杠杆率上升对系统性金融风险演化的影响,结果表明:宏观杠杆率上升后,金融风险累积阶段各类价格的反应程度强于金融风险释放时期;房地产价格波动领先于实体经济价格,汇率波动领先于金融资产价格,且房地产价格波动与金融资产价格具有交替性。在当前我国杠杆率不断攀升的背景下,为防范金融风险、维护金融稳定,短期内应关注外汇市场风险和金融市场风险,长期内房地产价格上涨累积的金融风险应是重点关注的领域,且房地产价格波动可作为实体经济风险的领先指标,产出价格和房地产价格可以结合起来作为宏观经济政策盯住的目标。
[Abstract]:Under the impact of macro leverage, price volatility reflects the evolution of systemic financial risk across sectors. Based on China's macroeconomic data for 2000-2016, This paper sets up a price index system for financial risk and analyzes the influence of the increase of leverage ratio on the evolution of systemic financial risk in China. The results show that: after the increase of macro leverage ratio, In the financial risk accumulation stage, the reaction degree of all kinds of prices is stronger than that of the financial risk release period, while the real estate price volatility is ahead of the real economy price, and the exchange rate fluctuation is ahead of the financial asset price. The fluctuation of real estate price and the price of financial assets are alternately. In order to prevent financial risk and maintain financial stability, foreign exchange market risk and financial market risk should be paid attention to in the short term in the context of the increasing leverage ratio in our country. The financial risk accumulated by real estate price rise in the long run should be the focus of attention, and the fluctuation of real estate price can be regarded as the leading indicator of real economy risk. Output price and real estate price can be combined as the target of macroeconomic policy.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F832.33

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