金融周期见顶带来经济周期“类滞胀”——2017年宏观经济展望

发布时间：2018-03-20 10:37

  本文选题：中国经济　切入点：金融周期　出处：《新金融》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：2016年经济周期出现"类滞胀"苗头,经济增速延续2012年以来的下行趋势,通胀却开始在波动中上行。"类滞胀"是金融周期接近顶部的阶段性现象,但可能引发货币紧缩,导致金融周期转向,进入下半场。2017年"类滞胀"态势将更明显,"滞"源于金融周期上半场中,地产与金融过度扩张,造成资源错配拖累潜在增长,以及地产投资带动高污染行业,加剧资源约束。"胀"在于房价与信贷的顺周期性通过直接与间接渠道影响物价,并存在隐性通胀转为显性通胀的过程。当前"紧信用"比"紧货币"更有必要,中期看,结构性改革才是出路,公平导向的税制改革和建立促进房地产市场健康发展的长效机制尤其重要。
[Abstract]:In 2016, there were signs of "quasi-stagflation" in the economic cycle. Economic growth continued its downward trend since 2012, but inflation began to rise in volatility. "similar stagflation" is a phased phenomenon of the financial cycle near the top, but it may lead to monetary tightening. In 2017, the "stagflation" situation will be more obvious. The "stagnation" is due to the over-expansion of real estate and finance in the first half of the financial cycle, resulting in the mismatch of resources as a drag on potential growth. As well as real estate investment to drive high-pollution industries, aggravating resource constraints. "inflation" lies in the pro-cyclical impact of housing prices and credit through direct and indirect channels. There is also the process of transforming implicit inflation into explicit inflation. At present, "tight credit" is more necessary than "tight money". In the medium term, structural reform is the only way out. Fair-oriented tax reform and the establishment of a long-term mechanism to promote the healthy development of the real estate market is particularly important.
【作者单位】： 光大证券研究所;光大证券国际研究所;
【分类号】：F832
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本文编号：1638709