主权信用评级与发展中国家融资能力

发布时间：2018-03-20 13:49

本文选题：主权信用评级　切入点：评级下调　出处：《外交学院》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文研究的是主权信用评级调整带来的差异性后果。主权信用是一个内涵丰富的概念,是对国家之间的经济关系与后果的一种抽象。信用评级的快速发展使其成为一种准公共产品。信用评级是金融市场的基础性设施,解决了市场信息不对称的问题。同时信用等级决定融资成本,在资本市场上,信用评级结果与金融产品的发行价格之间存在强相关性。信用等级下调具有顺周期效应,降低一国主权评级会带来更大的市场恐慌,使该国融资成本增加并且融资困难加重一国经济的恶化,从而使其主权评级陷入不断被降低且经济复苏时间延长。本文认为主权信用评级下调的后果对于不同国家的影响是不一样的。主权评级的调整,并非都能对市场形成显著的冲击,市场影响存在非一致性。评级下调在某种程度上会产生不公正的分配后果,即遭受相同幅度的评级下调,经济脆弱国家比经济发达国家遭受更大的负面影响。本文以在国际债券市场具有信用资格的7个国家的主权债券利率,得出了主权信用评级相同幅度的下调,经济脆弱的国家的在国际金融市场上融资成本和难度会更高。主权信用级下调的负面后果损害了发展中国家的融资能力,融资能力决定国家兴衰;同时进一步固化国际资本市场上的中心-边缘的依赖关系。应对主权评级下调带来的负面后果是各个发展中国家对外战略的重大挑战。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the different consequences of sovereign credit rating adjustment. Sovereign credit is a concept with rich connotation. The rapid development of credit rating makes it a quasi-public product. Credit rating is the basic facility of financial market. At the same time, the credit rating determines the financing cost. In the capital market, there is a strong correlation between the credit rating results and the issuing price of financial products. A downgrade of a country's sovereign rating would create greater market panic, increase the country's financing costs and exacerbate a country's economic woes. As a result, the sovereign rating has been continuously lowered and the economic recovery has been prolonged. This paper argues that the consequences of the sovereign credit rating downgrade are different for different countries. Not all of them have a significant impact on the market, and there are inconsistencies in the market impact. A downgrade can have an unfair distributive effect to some extent, that is, a rating downgrade of the same magnitude. The weak economies suffer more negative impacts than the developed countries. This paper, based on the sovereign bond interest rates of the seven countries with credit qualifications in the international bond market, has obtained a cut in the sovereign credit rating by the same extent. Financing costs and difficulties in international financial markets will be higher for countries with fragile economies. The negative consequences of the downgrade of sovereign credit ratings damage the financing capacity of developing countries, which determine the rise and fall of countries; While further solidifying the central-marginal dependence on international capital markets, coping with the negative consequences of sovereign rating downgrades is a major challenge to the external strategies of individual developing countries.
【学位授予单位】：外交学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F831.2;D501

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