基于CGE模型的金融业“营改增”政策对内蒙古经济社会的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-18 00:05

本文选题：CGE模型 + 增值税　；参考：《内蒙古工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：2016年3月召开的国务院常务会议决定,自2016年5月1日起,中国将全面推开营改增试点,原营业税纳税部门建筑业、房地产业、金融业和部分生活服务业全部纳入增值税征收范围,增值税实现全行业覆盖,此番改革意义重大。金融业作为国民经济的关键领域,与其他经济部门关系密切,在整个经济运行中起着不可替代的作用,由于其业务种类繁多,增值额难以确定,其改征增值税的历程一直以来存在着征收难题。内蒙古地区金融业等第三产业发展相对滞后,全国统一的增值税征收模式下,金融业实施营业税改征增值税对地区经济社会的影响效应如何值得探讨。本论文以金融业营业税改征增值税为研究对象,以内蒙古地区经济社会现状为研究背景,构建了金融业增值税CGE模型,根据2012年内蒙古投入产出表等统计资料为依据构建了内蒙古宏观社会核算矩阵和微观社会核算矩阵作为数据基础,运用GAMS程序语言模拟六种情景模式下,分析金融业改征增值税对内蒙古地区经济社会的影响。模拟结果表明:在税收方面,金融业营业税改征增值税政策的实施能够达到税负降低的目的,尤其是在全行业实现增值税覆盖之后,政策改革对于降低税负从而促进生产作用明显;在部门产出方面,金融业改征增值税政策的影响不仅存在于行业本身,其影响范围波及所有经济部门;在GDP、地区就业和居民福利方面,单独对金融业征收增值税会产生了一定的负面影响,但是当全行业实现“营改增”之后,政策对GDP、地区就业和居民福利产生了积极的作用。
[Abstract]:The executive meeting of the State Council, held in March 2016, decided that from May 1, 2016, China will completely open up the pilot project of business reform and increase, the construction industry and real estate industry, the former business tax and taxation departments.The financial industry and part of the life service industry are all included in the scope of VAT collection, and VAT covers the whole industry. This reform is of great significance.As a key field of the national economy, the financial industry is closely related to other economic sectors and plays an irreplaceable role in the whole economic operation.The course of changing the value-added tax has always been a difficult problem.The development of the third industry in Inner Mongolia is relatively lagging behind. Under the unified mode of value-added tax collection, how the financial industry implements the business tax to levy value-added tax on the regional economy and society is worth discussing.This paper takes the finance industry business tax change to levy the value-added tax as the research object, takes the Inner Mongolia area economic society present situation as the research background, constructs the finance industry value-added tax CGE model.Based on the input-output tables of Inner Mongolia in 2012, the macro social accounting matrix and the micro social accounting matrix of Inner Mongolia are constructed as the data basis, and six scenarios are simulated by using GAMS program language.This paper analyzes the influence of the finance industry on the economy and society of Inner Mongolia.The simulation results show that in the aspect of taxation, the implementation of the VAT policy of the financial industry can achieve the purpose of reducing the tax burden, especially after the realization of VAT coverage in the whole industry.The effect of policy reform on reducing tax burden and promoting production is obvious. In the aspect of sector output, the influence of finance industry to VAT policy not only exists in the industry itself, but also affects all economic sectors.In terms of GDP, regional employment and residents' welfare, levying VAT on the financial industry alone will have a certain negative impact, but when the whole industry realizes "reform and increase", the policy has a positive effect on GDP, regional employment and residents' welfare.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.42;F830.42;F832.7

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