龙泉镇旅游度假区Ⅰ期工程建设项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-01-29 09:49

本文关键词： 旅游度假区风险管理 WBS分解法层次分析法模糊综合评价　出处：《中国海洋大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着互联网和旅游的渐渐融合与深入,旅游业也普遍大众化、产业化,而且该特质愈发凸显,使得我国旅游产业备受各路资本青睐。在2015年中国旅游产业促进座谈会上,国家旅游局发布了《2014全国旅游业投资报告》。国家旅游局局长李金早表示,2014年中国旅游业实际完成投资7053亿元,同比增长32%。在当下,经济下行、投资增长乏力,而旅游投资却逆势上扬,这预示着旅游业将成为新常态下中国经济增长的新引擎。有关数据显示,全国超过半成以上的旅游投资来自民营企业,160多个投资百亿元以上的在建旅游大项目,投资主体也都是民营企业。今年一季度,全国民营资本投资旅游业占全国旅游直接投资的58%,民营资本已经是近年来旅游投资的主力军。而之所以旅游业快速上涨,与当前我国旅游需求不断增长,旅游消费多元化、个性化是分不开的。与此同时,我们也应清醒的认识到,对大多数投资活动来说,都存在风险问题,只是风险的范围、程度及大小不同而已。因此,针对龙泉镇旅游度假区I期工程建设项目来讲,开展全面的风险管理具有非常重要的现实和经济意义。本文将龙泉镇旅游度假区I期工程建设项目研究实际与项目风险管理理论密切结合,对本项目进行风险管理研究。开篇研究分析了国内外项目风险管理的现状,总结梳理了项目风险管理的相关理论及常用方法。接下来基于龙泉镇旅游度假区I期工程建设项目的基本情况,组建了项目风险管理团队。通过采用WBS分解法对项目各阶段风险进行识别和归类分析,建立起评价指标体系。针对识别出的每个风险因素,运用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法构建项目模型,进行风险评估。最终根据风险评估判定的结果,建立相应的动态风险监控系统,并提出应对各类风险的具体措施。总而言之,从对龙泉镇旅游度假区I期工程建设项目风险管理的研究过程可见,本文能够为以后类似研究,尤其是对于工程建设项目,提供良好的借鉴,且具有较高的实践和应用价值。
[Abstract]:With the gradual integration and deepening of the Internet and tourism, tourism is also generally popular, industrialization, and the characteristics of this increasingly prominent. The tourism industry of our country is favored by all kinds of capital. In 2015, China's tourism industry promotion forum. The National Tourism Administration released the National Tourism Investment report 2014. Li Jinzao, director of the National Tourism Administration, said that China's tourism industry had actually completed investment of 705.3 billion yuan in 2014. Growth is 32% year on year. In the current economic downturn, investment growth is weak, while tourism investment is rising against the trend, indicating that tourism will become a new engine of economic growth in China under the new normal, the figures show. More than half of the country's tourism investment comes from private enterprises, with more than 160 major tourism projects under construction with an investment of more than 10 billion yuan, all of which are private enterprises. The national private capital investment tourism accounts for 58% of the national tourism direct investment, the private capital has been the main force of the tourism investment in recent years. Tourism consumption diversification, individualization is inseparable. At the same time, we should also soberly realize that for most investment activities, there are risk problems, only the scope of risk. The degree and size of the project are different. Therefore, for Longquan Town Tourism Resort Phase I construction project. It is of great realistic and economic significance to carry out comprehensive risk management. In this paper, the practice of phase I project construction in Longquan tourist Resort is closely combined with the theory of project risk management. Carry on the risk management research to this project. The present situation of the project risk management at home and abroad is analyzed at the beginning of the study. Summarized and combed the project risk management related theories and common methods. Next based on Longquan Town Tourism Resort Phase I project construction project basic situation. The project risk management team was set up. By using WBS decomposition method to identify and classify the risk in each stage of the project, an evaluation index system was set up, aiming at each risk factor identified. Use AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to construct project model, carry on risk assessment. Finally, according to the result of risk assessment, establish the corresponding dynamic risk monitoring system. And put forward the specific measures to deal with all kinds of risks. In short, from the Longquan Town Tourism Resort Project I construction project risk management process can be seen, this paper can be similar research in the future. Especially for engineering projects, provide good reference, and have a higher value of practice and application.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F592.7;TU71

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