基于集对原理的供水管网漏损分析与评价研究

发布时间：2018-02-11 20:10

本文关键词： 集对原理供水管网漏损分析健康度评价漏损预测　出处：《湖南大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当前我国淡水资源日益短缺,水污染越来越严重,供水管网的漏损更进一步造成了水资源的大量浪费。这无不阻碍着我国节水型社会、水生态文明的建设,因此对供水管网的漏损进行控制研究已经迫在眉睫。供水管网漏损的研究中存在着大量不确定性问题,集对原理是一种处理不确定性问题的新方法,它的基础是集合,关键是两集合间联系度的构建和计算。本文基于集对原理对供水管网的漏损控制做了如下研究:首先,对供水管网漏损原因进行分析。以“管径、压力、埋深、管道所处道路等级”为供水管网漏损的自变量,“管道安全使用时间”为因变量。根据原始数据,应用集对原理得到了自变量集合与因变量集合的3元联系度表达式,结果表明管径、埋深、道路等级较小时供水管网容易发生漏损,管道运行压力越大容易导致漏损。其次,选取供水管道的“管道压力、埋深、所在道路等级、管径、管龄”五个指标值,对供水管网健康度进行评价。采用三标度层次分析法确定了指标的权重,将模糊分析与集对原理结合确定待评价样本集合与评价指标集合的3元联系度,再根据置信度准则得到待评价的供水管道的健康度等级。最后,对某供水管道的漏损次数进行预测。应用集对原理建立预测样本和历史样本的影响因子集合的3元联系度,差异不确定系数i取值后求得各集对的联系数,以此利用最相似的历史样本数目得到预测结果;同时对预测结果做整体评价分析,结果表明集对模型预测精度高于GM(1,1)和BP神经网络模型。上述研究表明:集对原理可以应用到供水管网漏损,为供水管网漏损的分析、评价、预测,提供了新的方法。
[Abstract]:At present, fresh water resources in our country are increasingly short, water pollution is becoming more and more serious, and leakage loss of water supply network has further caused a large amount of waste of water resources. All of this has hindered the construction of water-saving society and water ecological civilization in our country. Therefore, it is urgent to study the leakage control of water supply network. There are a lot of uncertainty problems in the study of water supply network leakage. The set pair principle is a new method to deal with the uncertainty problem, which is based on the set. The key is to construct and calculate the connection degree between the two sets. Based on the set pair principle, the leakage control of the water supply network is studied as follows: firstly, the causes of the leakage in the water supply network are analyzed in order to "pipe diameter, pressure, buried depth," The grade of the road in which the pipeline is located is the independent variable of the leakage loss of the water supply network and the dependent variable of "the safe use time of the pipeline". According to the original data, the 3-element relation degree expression between the set of independent variables and the set of dependent variables is obtained by applying the principle of set pair. The results show that the pipe diameter, buried depth and road grade are liable to leak, and the higher the pipeline pressure is, the easier it is to cause leakage. Secondly, the pipe pressure, buried depth, road grade and pipe diameter are selected. Five index values of pipe age are used to evaluate the health of the water supply network. The weight of the index is determined by using the three-scale analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the three-element connection degree between the sample set and the evaluation index set is determined by combining the fuzzy analysis with the set pair principle. Finally, the leakage times of a certain water supply pipeline are predicted. By applying the set pair principle, the 3-element connection degree of the set of influence factors between the predicted sample and the historical sample is established, and then the degree of health degree of the water supply pipeline to be evaluated is obtained according to the confidence criterion. The relation number of each set pair is obtained by using the most similar historical sample number after the difference uncertainty coefficient I is selected, and at the same time, the prediction result is evaluated and analyzed as a whole. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the set pair model is higher than that of the GM-1 model and the BP neural network model. The above research shows that the set pair principle can be applied to the leakage loss of the water supply network and provides a new method for the analysis, evaluation and prediction of the leakage loss of the water supply network.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TU991.33

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