内蒙古多伦县土地利用动态变化与粮食安全研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 12:10

本文关键词：内蒙古多伦县土地利用动态变化与粮食安全研究　出处：《内蒙古农业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文以内蒙古多伦县为研究区,以土地利用数据、Landsat TM影像及社会经济统计数据为基础数据源,在提取土地利用变化信息的基础上,运用转移矩阵、土地利用转移流、主成分分析法对多伦县1987～2015年土地利用动态变化及影响耕地变化的主要因素进行分析;采用灰色关联分析法探讨多伦县粮食生产动态变化及影响因素;引入耕地资源态势及人粮关系模型,对多伦县粮食安全状况进行评价;利用GM(1,1)模型、回归分析法、综合增长率法对多伦县2016～2025年的粮食供需状况进行预测,为下一步土地利用以及粮食生产提供理论参考和科学依据。主要结论如下:1.1987～2015年间,多伦县的土地利用类型结构从1987年以耕地、草地和未利用地为主转变为2015年的以耕地、草地和林地为主,其中,林地面积增加最大,未利用地面积减少最大,在研究时段内土地利用变化速率大致呈先增加后减小的趋势。2.通过主成分分析法对耕地面积变化的驱动因素进行分析得知影响多伦县耕地面积变化的主要驱动力因素为:社会经济、日照时数、年平均气温、湿度。3.多伦县粮食总产从1987到2015增产83080t,粮食单产由1987年的375.89kg/hm2提高到2015年的1774.95kg/hm2,粮食作物的种植面积在播种总面积中占有绝对的优势。由于粮食总产和单产的波动性程度均十分激烈,表明多伦县在研究时段的粮食生产相对不稳定。4.多伦县粮食总产量与所选社会经济因素关联度的顺序由大到小依次为粮食单产、机播面积、农业机械化水平、粮食播种面积和化肥施用总量,表明粮食总产量的提升主要依赖于粮食单产和机播面积。5.多伦县耕地压力较小,耕地资源态势良好,粮食生产基本处于安全的状况,但不能提供稳定的人粮关系状态。6.未来十年多伦县的粮食供给水平完全可以满足当地居民对粮食的温饱型与小康型需求,基本能达到富裕型的粮食消费需求,但由于粮食供给量与富裕型粮食消费需求较为接近,为了使当地人民能稳妥地达到富裕型的粮食消费水平,应该进一步提高粮食产量和耕地质量。
[Abstract]:This paper takes Duolun County, Inner Mongolia as the research area, based on Landsat TM image of land use data and social and economic statistics data, on the basis of extracting land use change information. Using the transfer matrix, land use transfer flow and principal component analysis, the dynamic changes of land use and the main factors affecting the change of cultivated land were analyzed in Duolun County from 1987 to 2015. The dynamic changes and influencing factors of grain production in Duolun County were studied by grey relational analysis method. The situation of cultivated land resources and the relationship between human and grain were introduced to evaluate the situation of food security in Duolun County. The grain supply and demand from June 2016 to 2025 in Duolun County were forecasted by using GM-1) model, regression analysis and comprehensive growth rate method. The main conclusions are as follows: 1. From 1987 to 2015, the structure of land use in Duolun County was cultivated land from 1987. Grassland and unused land were transformed into cultivated land, grassland and woodland in 2015. Among them, the forestland area increased the most, and the unused land area decreased the most. During the period of study, the change rate of land use increased first and then decreased. 2. The main driving factors influencing the change of cultivated land area in Duolun County were analyzed by principal component analysis. The dynamic factors are:. Social economy. Sunshine hours, annual average temperature, humidity .3.The total grain production of Duolun County increased 83080t from 1987 to 2015. The yield per unit grain increased from 375.89 kg / hm ~ 2 in 1987 to 1774.95 kg / hm ~ 2 in 2015. The planting area of grain crops occupies an absolute advantage in the total sown area. Because of the fluctuation degree of total grain yield and per unit yield are very fierce. The results showed that the grain production of Duolun County was relatively unstable in the period of study. The order of correlation between total grain yield and selected social and economic factors in Duolun County was grain yield per unit yield and machine sowing area. Agricultural mechanization level, grain sown area and total amount of fertilizer application indicated that the increase of total grain yield mainly depended on grain unit yield and machine sowing area .5.The pressure of cultivated land in Duolun County was small, and the cultivated land resource situation was good. Food production is basically in a safe state, but can not provide a stable human-food relationship. 6. The level of grain supply in Toronto County in the next ten years can completely meet the local residents' demand for food, clothing and food. Basically can reach the rich type of grain consumption demand, but because the grain supply quantity and the rich type grain consumption demand is relatively close, in order to enable the local people to be able to reach the rich grain consumption level safely. Grain production and cultivated land quality should be further improved.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F301.2;F326.11

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