我国资本外逃的影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-01-05 07:31

本文关键词：我国资本外逃的影响因素研究　出处：《华中科技大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：资本外逃的规模在一定程度上可以衡量一个国家的经济增长状况、金融体系的完善和经济环境的稳定情况,它不仅反映了资本与国家的关系,还反映着资本与经济、金融制度之间的关系。随着金融全球化的发展,国际金融投资工具的种类不断丰富,资本在各国之间的流动趋势不断增强,资本外逃对基本相对稀缺的发展中国家经济的发展产生了更大的威胁。根据卡丁顿(1986)、米基卡尔森(1991)、帕斯托(1990)等人对资本外逃影响因素的选取,同时考虑获得数据的可行性,本文经过筛选采用:经济增长率、利差水平、汇率高估情况、财政赤字情况、通货膨胀率、外债状况、外汇储备状况、金融深化程度、贸易规模、外商直接投资、税收差别待遇、政治金融风险这些因素等变量作为可能影响资本外逃规模的因素进行计量实证分析,找出其中对我国资本外逃影响最主要的因素以及之间的相关性。回归结果显示,经济增长率、金融深化与资本外逃规模成显著的负相关关系;通货膨胀、外汇高估水平和资本外逃规模为显著的正相关关系;利差水平、财政赤字在全要素模型中与资本外逃是显著的正相关关系;外债状况和资本外逃之间是负相关关系,但不显著;外汇储备、政治金融风险和资本外逃在模型3中是显著的负相关关系;差别税收待遇在模型1和模型3中与资本外逃是显著的正相关关系。基于此,本文从经济体制和政策环境两方面提出了相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:Economic growth in the scale of capital flight can be a measure of a country in a certain extent, the stability of the financial system and economic environment, it not only reflects the relation between the capital and the country, but also reflects the relationship between capital and economic and financial system between. With the development of financial globalization, international financial investment tool enrich the flow trends in the international capital increase, capital flight in the economic development of developing countries of relatively scarce produced a greater threat. According to Cardington (1986), Mickey Carlson (1991), Pasto (1990), the selection factors of capital flight, considering the feasibility of obtaining data in this paper, after screening the rate of economic growth, interest rate level, overvalued exchange rate, fiscal deficit, inflation rate, debt, foreign exchange reserves, the financial deepening process Of trade, foreign direct investment, tax discrimination, political and financial risk factors of these variables can be measured as an empirical analysis of the influence factors of the scale of capital flight, to find out the correlation between China's capital flight on the main influencing factors as well as between. The regression results show that the rate of economic growth, financial deepening and the scale of capital flight a significant negative correlation between the level of inflation, foreign exchange; overvalued and capital flight scale is a significant positive correlation; spreads, fiscal deficits in all the factors in the model with capital flight is a significant positive correlation between the status of capital flight; and external debt are negatively correlated, but not significantly; foreign exchange reserves, political and financial risk and capital flight in model 3 is a significant negative correlation; the differential tax treatment in model 1 and model 3 and capital flight is a significant positive correlation. Based on this, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions from two aspects of the economic system and the policy environment.

【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.6

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