人口转型、技术进步与农业生产组织变迁

发布时间：2018-01-06 04:19

本文关键词：人口转型、技术进步与农业生产组织变迁　出处：《陕西师范大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：农业生产组织的发育与成长影响着农业经济发展的质量和农业现代化进程。随着工业化、城镇化进程的推进,农业与非农产业的连接日益紧密,农业生产面临的环境越发复杂。尤其实行市场经济体制以来,市场供给需求结构发生了质的变化,为了不被市场所淘汰,农产品供给要最大限度的满足市场需求,而农业家庭经营这种小农生产模式显然不能有效的应对市场化这一挑战。所以,变革农业生产经营模式,提高农业生产组织化程度已迫在眉睫。国外一部分学者从制度经济学角度分析了农业生产组织的变迁,他们认为保持经济增长是组织或者制度变迁的动力,同时,组织的发展也必须随着外部环境的变化不断做出调整以保证其在该行业的竞争力。一部分学者从风险规避、专业化规模生产等角度分析农业生产组织的兴起与变化。还有一部分学者研究了人力资本与技术进步、技术进步与组织变迁的关系。国内学者主要从制度变迁、交易成本、规模经济等角度分析农业生产组织的变迁,鲜有学者从人口转型、技术进步角度分析。不同于现有学者的研究成果,本文从人口转型、技术进步角度出发,通过构建人口转型强度指标分析农业生产组织的变迁,研究发现：首先,随着社会经济的发展,人口转型不断促进着农村人力资本水平的提升,抑制着农村家庭规模的扩大与人口数量的快速增长。高人力资本水平的积累促进了农业技术进步,农业机械化水平的提升将有效提高农业生产效率,不断变革农业生产方式。其次,人口转型带来的农村人力资本水平的提升为农业生产提供了一批“有文化、懂技术、会经营”的专门人才,由他们来主导农业生产,有利于充分发挥土地、资金、技术等生产要素的效用,提高农业生产组织化水平。再次,人口转型推动农业劳动力的非农转移使农业人口和劳动力不断减少,人地关系的缓和使农业生产规模趋于扩大。由于资本的供给越发充裕,而劳动力的成本不断提高,所以,用机械取代劳力将变为现实,农业规模化生产、企业化经营也将逐步推进。最后,人口转型过程中,因为人们生育观念的转变,家庭生育子女的数量将减少,这使得从事农业生产的劳动力减少,单个劳动者将拥有更多的物质资本,不断积累的劳均资本存量,同样有利于农业微观经济组织向具有企业化特征的组织形式转变。文章由六个部分组成。作者在第一部分提出了所要研究的问题,理论和现实意义,还对人口转型、技术进步相关概念做出了解释。第二部分总结了国内外学者在人口转型、技术进步与农业生产组织方面做出的经典研究,并且发掘了本文的创新之处。文章的第三部分提出具有企业化性质的农业生产组织是我国未来微观经济组织发展的方向。该部分首先简述了我国小规模家庭生产经营模式遇到的困难,随后分析得出农业生产组织企业化是提高农业生产经营水平的有效途径。第四部分是理论分析,该部分运用人口转型、技术进步相关知识对农业生产组织变迁进行分析,探讨人口转型、技术进步对农业生产组织向企业化模式转变的影响过程。第五部分是实证检验,该部分首先建立了一个多元线性回归模型来研究生产规模与技术进步对农业组织化程度的影响,随后应用向量自回归模型来探究农村人口转型与农业技术进步的关系,最后利用eviews软件对数据与模型进行了处理与分析,发现计量分析结果与前文理论部分研究结果一致。第六部分是结论与政策建议。本文得出的结论是：技术进步和生产规模的扩大是影响农业生产组织化程度的重要因素,而农村人口转型与农业技术进步之间存在着紧密的联系,农村人口生产偏好的转变能有效的促进农业技术进步,所以农业生产组织企业化也应该从提升农业劳动力的人力资本水平、扩大农业生产规模与促进农业技术进步这三方面入手。
[Abstract]:The growth and development of agricultural production organization affects the development of agricultural economy and the quality of the agricultural modernization process. With the industrialization, the urbanization advancement, agriculture and non-agricultural industries connected more closely, agricultural production environment more and more complex. Especially since the implementation of market economy system, the qualitative changes of market supply and demand structure, in order to be out of the market, the supply of agricultural products to satisfy the market demand, and the small-scale production of agricultural family management model obviously can not effectively respond to market the challenge. Therefore, production and operation mode of agricultural reform, improve the organization degree of agricultural production is imminent. As part of foreign scholars have analyzed the changes of agricultural production organization from the perspective of institutional economics, they believe that economic growth is dynamic, organization or institution change at the same time, the development of the organization must change with it. The changing of the external environment to adjust to ensure the competitiveness of the industry. Some scholars from the perspective of risk aversion, specialization and scale production of the rise and change of agricultural production organization. Some scholars have studied the relationship between human capital and technological progress, technological progress and organizational change. Domestic scholars mainly from institutional change, transaction cost, analysis of scale economy angle changes of agricultural production organization, few scholars from the perspective of population transformation, technological progress. Different from the existing research results of scholars, from the angle of population transformation, technological progress, through the analysis of the construction of agricultural production organization change, demographic transition, the study found: firstly, strength index with the development of social economy, the demographic transition, continue to promote the level of rural human capital increase, inhibit the population to expand the number and scale of rural families The rapid growth of high level of human capital accumulation to promote the progress of agricultural technology, agricultural mechanization level will effectively improve the efficiency of agricultural production, changing the mode of agricultural production. Secondly, the level of rural human capital population transformation caused by the upgrading of agricultural production for a number of "cultural, technical, professional talents business, by their leading agricultural production, to make full use of land, capital, technology and other factors of production effectiveness, improve the level of agricultural production organization. Thirdly, the demographic transition of the agricultural labor force to promote non-agricultural transfer of agricultural population and labor to reduce, the relationship between people and land to ease the scale of agricultural production tends to expand. Because the supply of capital more abundant, while labor costs continue to increase, so replacing labor will become a reality for agricultural machinery, large-scale production, enterprise management will Step by step. Finally, the process of demographic transition, because of changes in people's attitudes, the number of families of children will be reduced, which engaged in agricultural production to reduce the labor force, individual workers will have more physical capital, the accumulation of capital stock, also conducive to agricultural micro economic organizations to change with the enterprise organization form features. The article consists of six parts. In the first part, the author put forward the research, theoretical and practical significance, but also of the demographic transition, technological progress related concepts are explained. The second part summarizes the domestic and foreign scholars in the study of classical population transformation, technological progress and agricultural production organization and make. To explore the innovation of this paper. In the third part of the paper is the nature of enterprise organization of agricultural production is the future of China's micro economic organization development Party This part first briefly introduced. To meet our small family mode of production and operation difficulties, then analyze the organization of agricultural production is an effective way to improve the management level of agricultural production. The fourth part is the theoretical analysis, this part makes use of the demographic transition, technological progress related knowledge to analyze the agricultural production organization, to explore the population the transformation process, the technical progress of the agricultural production organization mode to the enterprise. The fifth part is the empirical test, this part firstly established a multiple linear regression model to study the production scale and the technical progress of the agricultural organization degree, then the relationship using vector auto regression model to explore the progress of rural population and agricultural transformation at the end of the technology, data and models are processed and analyzed by Eviews software, and found the results of quantitative analysis of previous theoretical research part The results are consistent. The sixth part is the conclusion and policy suggestions. The conclusion of this paper is: to expand the scale of production and technological progress is an important factor that affects the organization degree of agricultural production, and between the rural population and the transformation of agricultural technology progress are closely linked, effectively promote the progress of agricultural technology can change the rural population preferences so, the organization of agricultural production also should improve the human capital level of agricultural labor force, expanding the scale of agricultural production and promote the progress of agricultural technology in these three aspects.

【学位授予单位】：陕西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F323.6;F324;F323.3

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