中国西部地区省会城市城镇化质量与规模协调发展评价研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 04:35

本文关键词：中国西部地区省会城市城镇化质量与规模协调发展评价研究　出处：《长安大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：城镇化是人类文明进步和社会经济发展的重要历史过程,是近现代以来推动人类社会前进的引擎,也是21世纪我国经济社会发展的重大主题之一。在城镇化发展进程中,城镇化质量和城镇化规模是相辅相成、相互促进、相互制约的关系。若盲目追求城镇化规模,忽视城镇化质量的提升,就会出现城镇化发展的“亚健康”现象;反之,仅强调城镇化质量,漠视城镇化规模,同样会减缓城镇化发展的步伐。西部地区作为中国较为落后的地区,城镇化水平明显滞后于东部发达地区。随着西部大开发战略的深入,西部地区在经济、社会、基础设施、居民生活、生态环境、城乡统筹等方面都得到了显著提高,但在城镇化过程中亦存在城镇化质量与规模未能协调发展的问题。如何在城镇化质量和城镇化规模之间建立一种最佳的链接,实现城镇化快速发展的同时兼顾“质”与“量”的协调发展,是一个值得探讨深究的问题。本文从城镇化质量和城镇化规模两个视角出发,采用熵权法、线性加权和法、聚类分析法、协调发展度、灰色预测法等定量方法,按照“内涵-指标-测度-协调关系-类型-预测”的思路,系统地研究了2006-2013年中国西部地区10个省会城市城镇化质量与规模的协调发展关系,不仅避免了单一年份的特殊性问题,使得城镇化的评价结果更加符合实际情况,还可以把握近年来西部地区省会城市城镇化建设的动态演变规律,为西部地区城镇化的健康可持续发展决策提供参考和借鉴。首先,按照科学性、系统性、层次性、代表性和可操作性等原则,从城镇化质量的内涵出发,统筹考虑经济、社会、居民生活、基础设施、生态环境和城乡统筹六个方面,建立了城镇化质量综合评价指标体系;同时,依据城镇化规模的内涵,从人口规模和空间规模两个方面,构建了城镇化规模综合评价指标体系。其次,运用熵权法,对2006-2013年中国西部地区10个省会城市城镇化质量和城镇化规模综合评价指标体系的相关面板数据进行统计分析,确定了各评价指标的权重,再根据建立的城镇化质量综合评价指标体系和城镇化规模综合评价指标体系,分别测度了中国西部地区10个省会城市城镇化质量和城镇化规模的综合发展水平,并且利用聚类分析法,分析探讨了中国西部地区10个省会城市城镇化质量和城镇化规模的空间演变特征。最后,根据测算出的2006-2013年中国西部地区10个省会城市城镇化质量和城镇化规模综合发展水平,采用协调发展度的计算方法,测度分析了2006-2013年中国西部地区10个省会城市城镇化质量与规模协调发展状况,并分析了其时空演变特征。得出了西部地区10个省会城市城镇化质量与规模正在逐渐向更协调方向演进的结果;进而运用灰色预测法,预测分析了西部地区10个省会城市城镇化质量与规模的协调发展水平,为促进西部地区城镇化质量与规模协调发展提供决策依据。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is an important historical process of the progress of human civilization and the development of social economy, is the modern society forward engine, one of China's economic and social development of the major theme is twenty-first Century. In the process of urbanization, urbanization and urbanization scale is complementary, mutual promotion and mutual restriction between the if. The blind pursuit of the scale of urbanization, ignoring the urbanization quality improvement, there will be the development of urbanization in the "sub healthy" phenomenon; on the contrary, only emphasizes the quality of urbanization, ignoring the scale of urbanization, urbanization also slowed the pace of development of the western region. As a Chinese relatively backward region, the level of urbanization lags behind the eastern area. With the western development strategy deeply, the western region in the economic, social, infrastructure, ecological environment, urban and rural residents, and other aspects have been significantly. High, but the quality and scale of the coordinated development of urbanization problems also exist in the process of failure in town. How to establish a link between the optimal scale of urbanization quality and towns, realize the rapid development of urbanization and the coordinated development of both the "quality" and "quantity", it is worth to study further the problem in this paper. From the two aspects of the scale of urbanization and urban quality, by using entropy method and linear weighted method, clustering analysis method, the coordinated development degree, the quantitative method of grey forecast method, according to the connotation of "- - - - index measure coordination type forecast" ideas, to study 2006-2013 in the quality and scale of urbanization in 10 capital city China western region coordinated development between, not only to avoid the special problem of a single year, the urbanization makes the evaluation results more in line with the actual situation, can also grasp the West in recent years. The dynamic changes of the capital city urbanization region, and provide the reference for the decision-making of healthy and sustainable development of the urbanization of western region. First of all, according to scientific, systematic, hierarchical, representative and operational principle, starting from the connotation of urbanization quality, and consider the economic, social, population life, infrastructure, ecological environment and the six aspects of urban and rural areas, established a comprehensive evaluation index system of urbanization quality; at the same time, according to the connotation of urbanization scale, from the two aspects of the scale of population size and spatial scale of urbanization, constructs the comprehensive evaluation index system. Secondly, using entropy method of panel data Chinese West 2006-2013 10 capital city urbanization quality and the scale of urbanization comprehensive evaluation index system for statistical analysis, to determine the weight of each index, and then according to the established Urbanization The quality of the comprehensive evaluation index system and the scale of urbanization comprehensive evaluation index system, the comprehensive development level of the scale of capital city of the 10 China western region urbanization quality and towns respectively measure, clustering analysis and utilization, analyzes 10 provinces in western region will China evolution characteristics of city scale urbanization and urban space quality finally, according to the estimates of the 2006-2013 China West 10 capital city urbanization quality and the scale of urbanization comprehensive development level, the calculation method of the coordinated development degree, the 2006-2013 measure analysis of urbanization quality of 10 capital city China western region and scale coordinated development condition, and analyzes the spatial-temporal characteristics. The urbanization quality of 10 provincial and city scale in the western region is gradually to the direction of the evolution of the coordination results; and then use the gray prediction method, The coordinated development level of urbanization quality and scale in the 10 provincial capitals of Western China is predicted and analyzed, providing a decision-making basis for promoting the coordinated development of quality and scale of urbanization in Western China.

【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F127;F299.21

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