改革开放前中国的技术进步对产出的贡献研究

发布时间：2018-01-08 01:16

本文关键词：改革开放前中国的技术进步对产出的贡献研究　出处：《山东大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在衡量技术进步时,学者们多采用计量经济学模型来度量全要素生产率,索洛余值至今仍是研究的主流思路。实际上,相比与技术进步的概念,索洛余值过于宽泛。其所测算出的全要素生产率确实比起之前的测度某单个要素的生产效率来衡量技术水平要高明得多,但仍然不能与技术进步在概念上划等号。此外学者们也没有在TPF的概念范畴的问题上达成准确共识,这种自由随意的处理方式是导致其测度结果甚至结论差异的一个重要原因。本文基于搜集、整理到的中国改革开放前的投入产出数据,结合结构分解分析的方法,以技术系数矩阵在三段主要时期的变动来刻画中国当时的的投入产出效率演变情况。并进一步将最终产出的时期变化结构分解成技术进步以及总投入变动的影响,以测度改革开放前技术进步的产出贡献。简单而言,就是将技术系数A的改动所带来的最终产出的提高视为技术进步对国民经济及其各部门的贡献。我们知道技术系数A以及相应的列昂惕夫矩阵L=(I-A)-1,作为投入产出学里最基本的概念,前者表示经济部门单位产出对经济中各物质的消耗,后者则表示出经济部门单位最终产出上对其余部门收入的拉动量。A和L定量地对各个经济部门的投产关系进行描述,而这种产生于各方面因素的关系实际上暗含着一个国家及其各部门在一定时期的关于经济结构以及经济技术状况的信息,同时也是受于技术进步的最直接的好处。这也就是说,用直接消耗系数A的变化亦即一定投入下产出的变化来表达技术进步是合理的。更微观地,其各列数值的变化代表着相应部门技术的演变。实际上,用一个更广阔的视角来看,生产的每一个环节,例如、产品的研发、能源材料的投放、生产过程中的工艺流程到最终生产出产品,都少不了技术的贡献。另一方面,这些环节上的变化,有基本都会在投入产出关系上留下痕迹。我们希望通过搜集、记录中国改革开放前的投入产出数据,制作出一个1957年至1973年间主要年份的直接消耗系数A的年代表来分析、研究改革开放前投入产出效率。投入产出表首先是一个庞大的缩影了一个国家、地区经济系统的数据库。从中能反映出许多错综复杂的济关系,尤其是部经门与部门之间(或地区之间)的物质或价值消耗与分配关系。本文准备有效地利用这种数据模型分析反应改革开放前一段历史时期中国家及各部门的经济技术状况。鉴于官方公布的全国性投入产出表始于1987年,为了满足研究分析的需要,作者与导师及组内其他成员一起合作,搜集、记录了中国改革开放前(主要是1952年至1973年间的四个主要年份)投入产出数据。数据的搜集主要牵涉两个层面,全国性统计数据以及代表性工厂的投入产出数据(最后以各厂产出为权数汇总记录相关产品的投入产出系数)。前者的数据来源于《中国工业交通能源50年统计资料汇编》数据,后者来源于各个代表性工厂厂志。这张投入产出表涉及161个细分的产品种类以及18大部类(包括农业,煤炭采选业,化学工业等等)。我在其中的几个部类中各挑选了一到两种具有代表性的产品:如在"煤炭开选业"中挑选了原煤,"电力煤气自来水生产和供应业"中挑选了发电,在"化学工业"里挑选了合成氨、电石,在"建筑业"里挑选了水泥、平板玻璃,在"食品纺织造纸家具"中挑选了啤酒、粘胶纤维等。对这些挑选出的代表性产品,又进一步挑选出它们各自的主要消耗品,并将从1952年至1973的消耗数量制作成表格以及曲线图,以呈现出它们的变化便接下来作进一步的分析和评价。此外,在记录数据时,我们考虑了价格指数因素,对此我作出了 1952年至1973年的价格指数曲线。该数据来源于《新中国60年统计资料汇编-全国各种价格定基指数》。最后一提的是,投入产出模型不仅可以用消耗系数A来刻画各部门、各环节之间直接的物质或价值的技术联系,还可以方便的进行进一步的计算得出各部门、各环节之间间接的技术联系,这也是投入产出方法的一项重要优点。需要注意的是,技术、价格、部门构成的变化可能都会影响到价值型技术系数矩阵A。因此,为了更为准确的建立起技术进步与直接消耗系数之间的关系,需要从A的变化中剔除掉后两者(即价格和部门构成)变化所带来的影响。
[Abstract]:In the measure of technological progress, many scholars use econometric model to measure the total factor productivity, Solow residual value is still the mainstream thinking of research. In fact, compared with the concept of technological progress, the Solow residual value is too broad. It calculates the total factor productivity does measure than before a single factor production efficiency to measure the technology level was much better, but still can not be equated with technological progress in concept. In addition scholars also have in the concept of TPF issues to achieve accurate consensus, this free random processing is an important cause of the measurement results and even differences. Based on the conclusion collection, input and output data China before the reform and opening up to the finishing, combining with the analysis method of structure decomposition, the coefficient matrix in the main technology section three changes to describe the investment Chinese The output efficiency of evolution. And further will affect the final output of the changes in the structure is decomposed into technological progress and changes in the total input, output contribution to measure before the reform and opening up of technical progress. In simple terms, is the final output caused by the change in technology of the coefficients of A increase as technology progress contribution to the national economy and the Department. We know the technical coefficient A and the corresponding Leon Leontief matrix L= (I-A) -1 as input and output in the most basic concept, the former Department said the economic unit of output consumption of each substance in the economy, the latter is shown in the final output of economic departments other departments in driving revenue.A and L quantitatively in every sector of the economy production relationship is described, and the relationship to various factors implies a country and its various departments in a certain period of time. In the economic structure and economic situation of the information technology, the most direct benefit is also subject to technological progress. That is to say, with the changes that the direct consumption coefficient of A changes under certain input output to express the technical progress is reasonable. More micro, change the value of the column represents the corresponding department technology. In fact, with a broader perspective, every aspect of production, such as product development, delivery of energy materials, the production process in the process to the final product, not the technical contribution. On the other hand, changes in these links, there are will leave traces in the input-output relations. We hope that through collecting, recording China input before the reform and opening up the output data produced in the form of direct consumption coefficient A a year from 1957 to 1973, mainly to analysis, research The input and output efficiency. Before the reform and opening up the first input-output table is a huge epitome of a country, regional economic system database. To reflect the many perplexing economic relations from, especially between the door and the Department (or by the area between material consumption and value) or distribution relationship. This paper is prepared the effective use of this data model, economic and technical analysis of the state reaction before the reform and opening up period and each department. In view of the official national input-output table in 1987, in order to meet the needs of research and analysis, as the other members and instructors and group together to collect, record China before the reform and opening up (mainly four years from 1952 to 1973) input-output data. Data collected mainly involves two aspects, national statistics and the input-output representative factory The data (the last in each factory output for each summary of input-output coefficient records related products). The data from the "China industrial transportation energy statistics compilation > 50 years data, the latter from each representative plant records. This input-output table involves 161 segments of the product categories and 18 categories (including agriculture, coal mining industry, chemical industry and so on). I chose two representative products in several categories:" as in the coal industry in the open "select" coal, electricity gas tap water production and supply industry "selected" in power generation, chemical industry "in the selection of synthetic ammonia, calcium carbide, in the" construction "in the selection of cement, plate glass, in the" food textile and paper furniture "in the selection of the beer, viscose fiber. For the selected representative products, and further pick out their main consumer The consumption of goods, and from 1952 to 1973 the number of consumption made tables and graphs, by showing them the next change will be analyzed and further evaluation. In addition, while recording data, we consider the price index, which I made a price index from 1952 to 1973. The curve data from "the compilation of Statistics - 60 years of new Chinese price fixed base index. The last mention is that the input-output model can be used not only to describe the consumption coefficient A departments, material or value of the technology for direct contact between the various sectors, but also to facilitate the further calculation of each department, indirect technology contact between the various sectors, this is an important advantage of the input-output method. Note that the price change in the Department of technology, may pose will affect the value of the coefficient matrix A. for this type of technology, in order to More accurately establishing the relationship between technological progress and direct consumption coefficient, we need to eliminate the impact of the latter two changes, namely price and sector structure, from the change of A.

【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F129

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