人民币实际汇率升值对技术交易的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-12 00:09

本文关键词：人民币实际汇率升值对技术交易的影响研究　出处：《浙江财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国自2005年启动汇率形成机制改革以来,人民币实际汇率大幅升值,而汇率升值引起进口增加和出口减少,对中国企业带来竞争压力。此时,企业只有通过加大技术创新来降低生产成本和提升产品质量,才能重构贸易竞争优势。但是,我国贸易品的绝大部分由中小企业生产,而大多数企业的技术实力都不足以实施自主创新,在此情况下,利用技术市场等外部科技资源实施技术开发是企业可选择的创新路径。技术交易作为技术创新的重要组成部分,衡量需求方在技术市场上有偿获取的技术开发、技术咨询、技术服务和技术转让的规模,刻画企业利用外部科技资源实施技术创新的水平。本文通过考察实际汇率与技术交易的关系,揭示汇率升值条件下企业利用外部技术资源实施技术创新的行为。本文做了以下几个方面的贡献。第一,本文专门研究汇率变动对技术交易的影响效应,在技术创新的研究内容上具有创新之处。学界在研究汇率变动对技术创新的影响时,主要探讨了研发支出、专利申请等技术创新体系中的投入和产出问题,而较少研究促进技术实现产业化、商品化的技术交易问题。认清汇率升值对技术交易的影响效应,有助于为制定汇率政策提供理论依据。第二,探讨了汇率升值对内、外资企业实施技术交易所产生的不同作用效应,这是本文的另一个创新点。汇率升值带来人民币购买力增强和出口品价格上涨,这将引起进口增加和出口减少,而内、外资企业具有不同的技术禀赋和技术来源途径,因此,内、外资企业势必采取不同的技术交易活动。第三,利用面板门槛技术检验进出口贸易对技术交易的影响存在汇率门槛效应,这是本文在研究方法上的创新。汇率作为一项货币政策工具,能够直观反映外部的经济变动趋势,故应作为门槛变量,用以观察在汇率变动状况下通过贸易渠道而对企业的技术交易行为所产生的影响。在对汇率、贸易与技术创新的关系进行文献梳理的基础上,本文首先对人民币实际汇率以及我国技术交易的变动特征进行统计描述分析,然后,依据内、外资企业的技术创新实际,理论分析实际汇率升值通过进出口渠道对技术交易的影响机制和影响效应,最后,以1997-2014年中国省级面板数据为依据,分别利用PVAR模型和面板门槛模型对实际汇率与技术交易之间的因果关系和技术交易的实际汇率门槛效应进行实证研究。结果发现,第一,实际汇率稳定或适度升值所带来的进口增加特别是中间品贸易的增加能够产生技术溢出,并显著促进了技术交易。第二,实际汇率升值引致出口减少,挤压了出口企业的经营利润,企业能够通过增加技术交易等途径来促进科技成果的转移转化,重构新的出口竞争优势,实际汇率升值通过出口渠道也显著促进了技术交易。第三,内、外资企业通过出口渠道对技术交易的作用程度有所不同,实际汇率升值引致的出口竞争能够倒逼外资企业加大技术创新,并显著促进了技术交易,而内资企业对实际汇率升值的敏感性尽管较强,但促进技术交易的效应尚不显著。第四,实际汇率贬值或过度升值都对技术交易产生负向作用,仅当实际汇率保持稳定或年升值率在1.6%以内时,进出口贸易才能显著促进技术交易,实施稳中趋强的汇率政策有利于科技成果的转移转化。本文有关汇率变动对技术交易影响效应的历史观察,发现汇率升值通过国际贸易渠道能显著促进技术交易,这对未来一段时期制定货币政策具有十分重要的理论意义。因此,为了更好发挥汇率调节进出口、技术交易的作用,本文建议:人民币中间价形成机制改革应逐步淡化与美元的单一汇率波动,将重点转向以主要贸易伙伴国的贸易份额为依据的一篮子货币汇率定价模式,强化人民币国际化进程中的多边意义,更加全面准确地反映市场变化,为企业提供真实价格信息。同时,货币政策应优先保证国内经济增长和产业升级,实施稳中趋强的汇率政策,催化出口企业提高技术交易水平,通过技术扩散与技术转化来构建新型贸易竞争优势。
[Abstract]:Since 2005 China launched the reform of exchange rate formation mechanism, the real exchange rate of RMB appreciation, the appreciation of exchange rate caused by the increase of imports and exports, bring competitive pressure on Chinese enterprises. At this time, enterprises only through increased technological innovation to reduce production costs and improve product quality, to reconstruct the trade competitive advantage. However, China's trade in goods most of the small and medium-sized enterprises in the production, and the technical strength of most enterprises are not enough to implement the independent innovation, in this case, the use of external resources of science and technology technology market implementation technology development is the innovation path of enterprises can choose. Technology trading as an important part of technological innovation, technology development, measure the demand side in the technology market paid access technology consulting, technology services and technology transfer scale, depict the companies using externaltechnological resources to carry out technical innovation level. This paper through the study of relationship between the real exchange rate and the exchange of technology, reveals the exchange rate appreciation of enterprises under the condition of the use of external technical resources to implement technical innovation behavior. The following contributions in this paper. First, this thesis focuses on the exchange rate effect on the exchange of technology, has the innovation in the research content of technological innovation. In the academic circles study on exchange rate changes on the impact of technological innovation, mainly discusses the research and development expenditures, input and output of patent application in technological innovation system, but less research to promote technology industrialization, technology trading of goods. To exchange rate appreciation effect on trading, help to provide a theoretical basis for the development of exchange rate policy. Second, discusses the exchange rate appreciation on, implementation of different effect of technology exchange from the foreign enterprises, which is another innovation of this paper. The exchange rate The appreciation of the RMB purchasing power and export prices, which will cause the increase of imports and exports decreased, and foreign enterprises with technology, endowment and technology sources, different, therefore, foreign-funded enterprises is bound to take the technical trading activities different. Third, using panel threshold inspection on import and export trade in technology trading the existing exchange rate threshold effect, this is the innovation in the research methods. The exchange rate as a monetary policy tool, can directly reflect the external economic trend, it should be as the threshold variable to see which technology trading behavior of enterprises in the exchange rate situation through the trade channel in. The basic exchange rate, reviews the relationship between trade and technological innovation on the first of the real exchange rate of RMB and the changes in China's technology trade statistics feature Then, based on the descriptive analysis, foreign enterprise technology innovation practice, theoretical analysis of the real exchange rate appreciation through import and export channel impact mechanism and of the effect, finally, using the 1997-2014 Chinese provincial panel data, an empirical study of the real exchange rate between real exchange rate and the threshold effect of technology transaction causation and the exchange of technology respectively by using PVAR model and panel threshold model. The results showed that the first, imports brought modest appreciation of the real exchange rate stable or increased especially the increase of intermediate goods trade can produce technology spillover, and promoted the exchange of technology. Second, the real exchange rate appreciation caused by reduced exports, squeezing the export enterprises operating profit. The enterprise can through increased technical trading and other ways to promote the transfer of scientific and technological achievements transformation, the export competitive advantage of new reconstruction, the real exchange rate rise The value of export channels also significantly promoted the exchange of technology. In third, foreign-funded enterprises, degree of action to the technology trade through export channels are different, the real exchange rate appreciation caused by the export competition forced foreign enterprises to increase technological innovation, and promote technical exchange, while domestic enterprises on the real exchange rate appreciation despite strong sensitivity but, the promoting effect of technology trade is not significant. Fourth, or excessive depreciation of the real exchange rate appreciation have negative effect on technical trading, only when the actual exchange rate remained stable or annual appreciation rate is less than 1.6%, import and export trade can significantly promote the implementation of technology trading, stable and strong exchange rate policy is conducive to the transfer of technology the results of the transformation. The exchange rate change to the influence of historical observation technology exchange effect, that exchange rate appreciation through international trade channels can significantly promote the technology transaction, this It has very important theoretical significance for the future period of monetary policy. Therefore, in order to make better use of the exchange rate adjustment of import and export, technology trading function, this paper suggests that the reform of the formation mechanism of the central parity of RMB should gradually dilute the single exchange rate volatility and the dollar, will point to the major trading partners of trade share for a basket the currency exchange rate pricing model based on the significance of strengthening the multilateral process of internationalization of the RMB, more fully and accurately reflect changes in the market, to provide accurate price information for the enterprise. At the same time, monetary policy should give priority to ensuring domestic economic growth and industrial upgrading, the implementation of a stronger exchange rate policy in the stability, catalytic technology export enterprises to improve the level of trade, through technology the diffusion and technological transformation to build new competitive advantages.

【学位授予单位】：浙江财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6

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