河南省土地生产率与土地经营规模关系的研究

发布时间：2018-01-17 15:31

本文关键词：河南省土地生产率与土地经营规模关系的研究　出处：《河南大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：21世纪以来,随着科技水平的迅速发展、人口的不断增长,对粮食的需求呈现急速上涨的态势,然而细碎化、小农经济的生产模式严重制约了粮食生产水平的提高。在现有耕地的基础上如何提高粮食产量成为人们越来越关注的焦点。很多学者从技术效率的角度来研究;还有的学者认为小规模分散化的经营模式是阻碍粮食产量提高的一个主要原因,因此认为土地适度规模经营是提高粮食产量的必然趋势。但是,随着土地经营面积的扩大,单位面积的粮食产量是否一定会提高呢?土地生产率与土地规模经营面积存在怎样的关系呢?土地生产率与土地经营规模的关系一直是国内外学者研究的焦点之一,在继著名经济学家恰亚诺夫、亚马提亚·森之后,IR关系被推向农业经济研究领域的高潮。基于对国内外文献的梳理,国内关于土地生产率与农户土地经营面积关系的研究相对较少,对河南省的土地生产率与土地经营面积关系的研究文献搜集中,发现无论是从数据还是从计量方法上,都是很不充分的。然而农业的发展又受到土地质量、灌溉条件、天气等多种因素的影响,不同地区农业的生产条件也是不同的,如果用其他地区的研究结果做为我省农业发展政策的依据,是不科学的,也是缺少理论依据的。因此,本文在借鉴大多学者研究经验的基础上,利用河南省“百县千村”的最新调研数据,对河南省的土地生产率与土地经营规模的关系进行探究,从而为河南省农业发展和土地规模经营提供理论依据。本文以柯布—道格拉斯生产函数为载体,以实地调查的关于河南省1100个农户横截面数据为计量分析样本,借助EVIEWS计量软件,充分考虑土地质量(土壤肥力、土地灌溉条件)、单位面积的中间投入要素(化肥投入、种子投入、农药投入、劳动力投入)、土地块数、劳动力受教育程度、有无村干部等10个变量因素,对河南省土地生产率与土地规模经营面积之间的关系进行逐步回归分析,找出最优解释变量,最终得出土地生产率与土地经营面积的这种逆向关系(IR)在河南省农业发展中是存在的。通过对本文的计量分析,得出的结论如下:第一,在河南粮食生产中,土地生产率与家庭拥有的土地种植面积之间仍然存在显著的负相关关系。说明河南省农业生产的规模仍然很小,小农经济的生产方式是制约河南省农业发展的重要因素。第二,劳动力对粮食生产的贡献是显著的,说明河南省农村的剩余劳动力转移已经宣告结束,刘易斯拐点的确已经到来。第三,土地碎片化对河南粮食生产的影响是显著的,减少土地块数可以提高粮食产量。第四,种子、化肥、灌溉条件、土壤肥力等土地替代类生产要素对河南粮食生产的影响是显著的,说明了测土施肥,现代农业生产方式亟需引入。第五,劳动力受教育程度对粮食生产的影响不显著。说明河南农业生产仍然严重依赖于传统耕作方式,现代化转型的压力很大。第六,家庭成员中是否有村干部对粮食生产的影响不显著,说明河南省农村土地分配政策相对是公平的。针对本文的结论,提出以下政策建议:1.应该鼓励农地流转,适当扩大农业生产经营的土地面积。2.选种育种对河南粮食生产的影响是显著的,政府应该继续加大这方面的投入。3.化肥施用应该采取精确测量、结构化微调的方式提高化肥的利用率。4.加大农村水利设施建设,发展节水灌溉技术。5.继续推进土地确权,激励农民积极进行土地改良和土地质量提升。6.在积极发展现代农业的基础上,大力普及农业技术教育和现代经营管理知识。发展现代农业,提升农业收益的比较利益,吸引优质劳动力回流农村。本文主要从数据、计量方法、变量因素以及数据的处理等方面进行创新,利用最小二乘法对变量进行多元回归分析,使我们的计量结果更加客观和可靠。但是,由于时间和调查数据的限制,本文运用的是横截面数据,并没有对农业发展的技术因素进行分析,因此,在以后的研究中将继续对“IR关系”进行更深入的扩展分析。
[Abstract]:Since twenty-first Century, with the rapid development of science and technology level, the increase of population, the demand for food is rapidly rising trend, but the fragmentation of the production of small-scale peasant economy model seriously restricts the grain production level. How to improve the focus of food production become increasingly concerned on the basis of the existing cultivated land. A lot of scholars to study from the point of view of technical efficiency; some scholars believe that the small scale and decentralized business model is a major obstacle to increasing grain yield, so that the appropriate scale of land management is the inevitable trend of increasing grain yield. However, with the expansion of land area, grain yield per unit area are bound to improve? What is the relationship between land productivity and land scale operation area? The relationship between land productivity and land management scale has been the scholars at home and abroad The focus, after the famous economist Chayanov, Amatiya Sen, IR is pushed to the agricultural economy research climax. The literature review on domestic research on land productivity and land management area is relatively small, the research literature search in Henan province land productivity and land management area of concentration it is found from the data or from the measurement method, are not sufficient. However, the development of agriculture and by land quality, irrigation conditions, weather and other factors, the production conditions of different areas of agriculture is different, if the other area of research results as the basis for policy development of agriculture in our province that is not scientific, but also the lack of theoretical basis. Therefore, this paper on the basis of most scholars research on the experience of Henan Province, using "hundred thousand villages" The latest research data, to explore the relationship between land productivity and land management scale in Henan Province, so as to provide a theoretical basis for the agricultural development of Henan province and the scale management of land. Based on the Cobb Douglas production function as the carrier, with the survey on the cross-sectional data of 1100 farmers in Henan Province as samples by means of quantitative analysis. EVIEWS measurement software, considering the quality of the land (soil fertility, land irrigation), the middle unit area inputs (fertilizer, seed, pesticide input, labor input), pieces of land, labor education, there is no village cadres and other 10 variables, the stepwise regression Analysis on the relationship between Henan province land productivity and land scale management area, to find the optimal variables. Finally the inverse relationship between land productivity and land management area (IR) in Henan Province Is there in the agricultural development. Through the measurement of the analysis, the conclusions are as follows: first, grain production in Henan, there is still a significant negative correlation between land productivity and family owned land acreage. Agricultural production in Henan Province, the scale is still small, the production of small-scale peasant economy is an important way the factors restricting the development of agriculture in Henan province. Second, labor contribution to grain production is significant, that has been declared the end of the transfer of surplus labor force in rural areas of Henan Province, Lewis turning point has arrived. Third indeed, land fragmentation effects on grain production in Henan is significantly reduced, pieces of land can increase the grain output. Fourth. Seed, fertilizer, irrigation, soil fertility and land replacement production factors influence on grain production in Henan is significant, the fertilization of modern agricultural production. It is urgent to introduce way. Fifth, the influence of labor education on food production is not significant. The agricultural production in Henan is still heavily dependent on traditional farming methods, the modern transformation of the great pressure. Sixth, whether family members in the village cadres impact on food production was not significant, indicating that the policy of rural land distribution in Henan province is relatively fair. According to the conclusion of this paper, put forward the following policy recommendations: 1. should encourage rural land circulation, expand the agricultural production and operation of the land area of Henan.2. selection breeding of grain production is significant, the government should continue to increase investment in this area applying.3. fertilizer should take accurate measurement, structured fine tune the way to improve the utilization rate of chemical fertilizer.4. increase the rural water conservancy facilities, the development of water-saving irrigation technology.5. continue to promote land ownership, land improvement and incentives for farmers to actively carry out land To improve the quality of.6. based on the positive development of modern agriculture, promote agricultural technology education and modern management knowledge. The development of modern agriculture, improve agricultural comparative interest income, to attract high-quality labor in rural areas. This paper mainly from the data, measurement methods, variables and data processing for terms of innovation, using least square method multiple regression analysis on the variables, we make the measurement results more objective and reliable. However, due to the time limit and survey data, this paper uses the cross section data, and no technical factors on agricultural development were analyzed, therefore, the research in the future will expand more in-depth analysis of the "IR" to continue.

【学位授予单位】：河南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F301.2

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