数量和质量不确定下农产品企业签约量研究

发布时间：2018-01-21 04:17

本文关键词： 订单农业供应链供应数量和质量不确定龙头企业签约量期望利润　出处：《昆明理工大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：订单农业不仅有效解决了小生产与大市场间的矛盾,而且还确保了企业以较低的交易费用和适宜的价格获得稳定的原料来源,在我国得到了普遍推广。然而,在订单农业实际运营中,频繁发生的农业自然灾害和农户的机会主义行为,导致农产品的供应数量和质量都不确定。不稳定的农产品供应使得龙头企业的原材料供应得不到有效保证,给企业带来较大的经济损失,进而影响企业从事订单农业的积极性,不利于我国农业产业化的发展。目前,学者们对供应不确定下的零售商订货策略研究大多只考虑供应数量不确定或质量不确定,缺乏同时考虑供应数量和质量都不确定情况。论文针对“公司+农户”型订单农业供应链中农产品供应数量和质量都不确定问题,从龙头企业决策者的视角出发,对龙头企业最佳签约量问题进行研究。首先,论文基于经典报童模型,建立了农产品供应数量和供应质量都不确定下的龙头企业签约量决策模型。模型以龙头企业期望利润最大为目标函数,以签约量为决策变量。目标函数考虑了农产品的销售收入、采购成本、加工成本、储存成本、缺货成本和剩余库存残值。其次,根据模型非线性连续可微的特点,采用二分法对模型的一阶最优性条件进行求解。再次,结合云南某龙头企业的实际运营情况,在分析农产品供应不确定数据统计规律的基础上,设计算例验证模型和算法的有效性,并进行了参数的灵敏度分析。最后,为了揭示农产品供应数量和质量不确定对龙头企业签约量的影响,论文对供应数量和质量都不确定、仅考虑供应数量不确定以及仅考虑供应质量不确定这三种供应情况下的龙头企业最佳签约量、期望利润进行了对比分析。论文的研究得出以下结论:(1)同时考虑供应数量和质量不确定的龙头企业签约量模型,比只考虑一种供应不确定下的签约量模型能更好地描述龙头企业实际运营情况;(2)在农产品供应数量和质量不确定情况下,龙头企业与农户的总签约量大于市场需求分布的期望,且总签约量随着农产品供应率的增加而减小;(3)上等农产品的各参数变化对签约量和期望利润的影响比下等农产品的各参数变化对签约量和期望利润的影响程度大;(4)最佳签约量随着农产品需求、单位出售价格、单位缺货成本、单位剩余库存残值的增加而呈增大的趋势,随着农产品供应率、单位加工成品率、单位采购成本、单位加工成本、单位储存成本的增加而呈减小的趋势;(5)期望利润随着农产品需求、单位加工成品率、单位出售价格、单位剩余库存残值的增加而呈增大的趋势,随着下等农产品供应率、单位缺货成本、单位采购成本、单位加工成本、单位储存成本的增加而呈减小的趋势;(6)对同一质量等级的农产品,其供应率、加工成本比其它参数对签约量和期望利润的影响更大。论文的研究弥补了已有对签约量相关研究的不足,有助于龙头企业确定最佳签约量,减少了龙头企业的潜在损失风险,提高了订单农业供应链的稳定性,促进了农业产业化的发展。
[Abstract]:Order agriculture not only effectively solve the contradiction between small production and large market, but also to ensure that the enterprises to obtain a stable source of raw materials with lower transaction costs and reasonable price, has been widespread in our country. However, in the actual operation of agricultural order, the opportunistic behavior of frequent occurrence of natural disasters of agriculture and farmers result, the quantity and quality of agricultural products supply are uncertain. The instability of the agricultural products supply the raw materials of leading enterprises to supply the effective guarantee to bring greater economic losses, thereby affecting the enthusiasm of enterprises engaged in farming, is not conducive to the development of agricultural industrialization in China. At present, the research of retailers ordering policy scholars on supply uncertainty take into account only supply uncertainty or lack of quality uncertainty, considering the quantity and quality of supply uncertainty on paper. "Company + farmer" order agriculture supply chain of agricultural products supply quantity and quality are uncertain problems, starting from the leading enterprise decision-makers perspective, to study the optimal amount of contracted enterprises. Firstly, the classical newsboy model is established based on the agricultural products supply quantity and supply quality of the leading enterprises contract volume decision model. Model of maximum expected profit by leading enterprises as the objective function, the contract amount as the decision variable. The objective function considering the agricultural product sales revenue, purchasing cost, processing cost, storage cost, out of stock cost and surplus inventory value. Secondly, according to the characteristics of the model of nonlinear continuous differentiable and solved by a dichotomy for model order optimality conditions. Thirdly, combined with the actual operation situation of Yunnan some leading enterprises, in the analysis of agricultural products supply uncertainty based on statistical data of the law On the effectiveness of the design examples to validate the model and algorithm, and sensitivity analysis of parameters. Finally, in order to reveal the influence of agricultural products supply quantity and quality uncertainty to the leading enterprises of the signing, the uncertainty of the quantity and quality of supply, supply quantity only considering the uncertainty and only consider the supply of quality uncertainty leading enterprises best signing quantity of the three supply conditions, expected profits are analyzed. This paper draws following conclusions: (1) considering the model contract quantity and quality leading enterprises in uncertain supply, than only considering a supply contract volume under the uncertain model can better describe the actual situation the operation of leading enterprises; (2) in the agricultural products supply quantity and quality of the uncertain circumstances, the total contract amount of leading enterprises and farmers than the distribution of market demand expectations, and the total contract amount with the supply of agricultural products The increase rate should be decreased; (3) effects of various parameters on superior agricultural products signing quantity and expected profit than the changes of the parameters of such agricultural products impact on the contract amount and expected profit level; (4) the optimal contract volume with the demand for agricultural products, unit price, unit shortage cost per unit. Add the remaining inventory residuals were increased, with the supply of agricultural products, the unit processing rate of finished products, the unit purchasing cost, unit cost, unit storage costs increased, decreased; (5) the expected profit with the demand of agricultural products, the unit processing rate of finished products, the unit selling price, increase the remaining units inventory residuals were increased, with lower agricultural supply rate, unit shortage cost, unit cost, unit cost, unit storage costs increased, decreased tendency; (6) on the same quality level of agricultural products The goods supply rate, processing cost more than the other parameters influence on the contract amount and expected profit. This study makes up the shortage of the study on the relevant contract volume has the help of leading enterprises determine the optimal contract volume, reduce the potential risk of loss of leading enterprises, improve the stability of the order of agricultural supply chain. To promote the development of agricultural industrialization.

【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F324

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