济南住宅需求影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-01-22 04:02

本文关键词： 住宅需求影响因素灰色关联度分析住宅需求弹性　出处：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着住房福利分配制度的取消,我国房地产业市场化的脚步不断加快。经过近20年的发展,房地产业在我国经济增长和社会发展中扮演的角色越来越重要,已经成为我国经济发展的支柱产业。住宅作为我们生存和生活的必需品,在我们的日常生活中发挥着不可替代的作用。房地产业的健康发展不仅是拉动经济增长的重要动力,而且是社会安定、人民团结的重要基石,因此,研究分析住宅需求的影响因素对我国社会经济发展具有十分重要的现实意义。本文将济南市住宅需求作为研究对象,首先,笔者从经济因素和非经济因素两个方面对影响济南市住宅需求的因素进行理论分析。其次,根据1999-2014年济南市统计数据,以商品住宅实际销售面积作为参考数列,通过灰色关联度计算,分析出这些变量对济南市住宅需求的影响程度并进行关联度排序。在此基础上,利用新古典城市住宅需求函数,运用最小二乘法、逐步回归的方法拟合济南市住宅需求函数。进而,根据拟合函数,得出住宅销售价格、城镇居民人均可支配收入和五年期以上贷款利率是影响济南市住宅需求的关键性因素。最后,笔者对济南市住宅需求的价格弹性、收入弹性、利率弹性进行计算和分析,并分别从政府层面、企业层面和消费者层面对济南市住宅市场的发展提出合理化建议。
[Abstract]:With the cancellation of housing welfare distribution system, the pace of marketization of the real estate industry in China is accelerating. After nearly 20 years of development, the real estate industry plays an increasingly important role in the economic growth and social development of our country. It has become the pillar industry of our country's economic development. Housing is the necessity of our existence and life. In our daily life plays an irreplaceable role. The healthy development of the real estate industry is not only an important driving force to stimulate economic growth, but also an important cornerstone of social stability and people unity. The study and analysis of the factors affecting housing demand has a very important practical significance for the social and economic development of China. First of all, this paper takes the housing demand of Jinan as the object of study. The author makes a theoretical analysis of the factors that affect the housing demand in Jinan from two aspects of economic factors and non-economic factors. Secondly, according to the statistics of Jinan from 1999 to 2014. Taking the actual sales area of commercial housing as the reference series, the influence degree of these variables on the housing demand in Jinan is analyzed through the calculation of grey correlation degree. On the basis of this, the influence degree of these variables on housing demand in Jinan is ranked. Using the neo-classical urban housing demand function, using the least square method, the method of stepwise regression fitting the housing demand function in Jinan. Then, according to the fitting function, the housing sales price is obtained. The per capita disposable income of urban residents and the interest rate of loans above five years are the key factors that affect the housing demand in Jinan. Finally, the price elasticity and income elasticity of housing demand in Jinan are discussed. The elasticity of interest rate is calculated and analyzed, and the reasonable suggestions on the development of housing market in Jinan are put forward from the government level, enterprise level and consumer level respectively.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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