改进Benford法则及中国上市公司财务数据准确性评估

发布时间：2018-01-25 18:11

本文关键词： Benford法则改进Benford法则财务舞弊数据准确性　出处：《天津财经大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：大力发展直接融资是我国长期战略性任务,"十三五"规划明确提出,要积极培育公开透明、健康发展的资本市场。证券市场作为资本市场的重要组成部分,起到融通资金、资本定价和资源配置的作用,为经济分析和宏观调控提供重要依据。长期以来,证券市场的财务舞弊屡禁不止,对投资者造成误导,增加市场交易成本,扭曲价格发现功能,不利于资本市场健康发展。因此有必要重新审视上市公司财务数据,通过评估财务数据的准确性,识别财务舞弊。随着信息化时代的到来,科学的方法能够帮助审计机构提高效率、保证质量,更好的分析财务数据的质量。Benford法则是检验数据准确性的一种广泛应用的统计方法,常应用于会计审计领域,然而Benford法则存在一定的适用条件,Benford法则的假设条件之一是其用于评估的数据不能集中于有限范围内。现实中很多数据都有最大值,数据有时还集中在有限范围内。为了放宽Benford法则假设条件,本文提出一种Benford法则的改进方法。利用数据集的最大数值,将全部数据集划分为两个集合,分别计算每个数据集的首位数字分布律,再进行加权求和,对Benford分布律进行修正,使其适用于待评估数据集的数字分布规律,同时使用随机模拟的方法比较改进后与改进前的评估结果,从频率比较与检验结果比较两方面验证该方法的优良性。最后将改进的Benford法则应用于评估我国上市公司主要财务数据准确性,在对总体数据及非ST公司数据准确性进行评估的基础上,再依据报表来源和财务指标特征进行分层,进一步探究上市公司财务数据准确性的特征,以识别财务数据舞弊,给出了有参考价值的分析结果。
[Abstract]:Vigorously developing direct financing is a long-term strategic task of our country. The 13th Five-Year Plan clearly proposes that we should actively cultivate an open, transparent and healthy capital market. The securities market is an important part of the capital market. It has the function of financing, capital pricing and resource allocation, and provides an important basis for economic analysis and macro-control. For a long time, the financial fraud in the securities market has been repeatedly prohibited, causing misinformation to investors. Increasing market transaction costs and distorting the function of price discovery are not conducive to the healthy development of capital market. Therefore, it is necessary to re-examine the financial data of listed companies and evaluate the accuracy of financial data. Identification of financial fraud. With the advent of the information age, scientific methods can help audit institutions to improve efficiency and ensure quality. Better analysis of the quality of financial data. Benford rule is a widely used statistical method to test the accuracy of data, which is often used in the field of accounting and auditing. However, one of the hypothetical conditions of Benford rule is that the data used for evaluation can not be concentrated in a limited range. In reality, many data have the maximum value. Data is sometimes concentrated in a finite range. In order to relax the hypothesis of Benford's rule, this paper presents an improved method of Benford's rule, which uses the maximum value of data set. All the data sets are divided into two sets, the first number distribution law of each data set is calculated respectively, and then weighted summation is carried out to modify the Benford distribution law. It is suitable for the digital distribution of the data set to be evaluated, and the method of stochastic simulation is used to compare the improved results with the results before the improvement. Finally, the improved Benford rule is applied to evaluate the accuracy of the main financial data of listed companies in China. On the basis of evaluating the accuracy of the total data and non-St company data, and then according to the source of the statement and the characteristics of the financial indicators to further explore the characteristics of the accuracy of financial data of listed companies. In order to identify financial data fraud, the analysis results of reference value are given.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

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