北京市产业结构调整与空气质量变动的关联研究

发布时间：2018-01-28 11:10

本文关键词： 空气污染产业结构调整灰色系统 LMDI分解　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：北京市作为首都具有特殊的地位,是全国政治、经济、文化中心,是著名的国际化大都市。北京具有信息、医疗、教育等公共资源优势,以及大量的就业机会,极大地吸引外地人口特别是农村人口向中心化城市快速迁移。近年来,首都人口过快增长与北京市资源环境的矛盾日益凸显:水资源紧缺;空气污染严重;交通道路拥堵;房价高涨,调控艰难;城市自然环境和生态系统受到较大破坏等等。而产业结构的优化升级以及空间上的布局,对能源消耗和带动人口合理分布都有着重要意义。产业结构调整的方向就是我们将要研究的课题。本文在对北京市空气质量和产业结构的描述性统计分析中发现,空气质量的变动不仅与产业结构的能量消费和各行业比重有密切关联,还与产业结构的空间布局有着很高的相似度。因而我们选取2010年到2015年北京市各行业能源消费量和废气排放量数据,进行灰色系统关联度分析,分析结果表明,与废气排放量密切相关的行业多为第三产业中的行业,与废气排放量关联度最大的行业分别是:工业,住宿和餐饮业,生活消费,交通运输、仓储和邮政业,房地产和建筑业,电力、热力的生产和供应业。GM(1,n)模型结果表明,工业和生活消费对废气排放量有着最大促进作用。随后我们用LMDI的分解方法对二氧化硫排放的驱动因素进行分解,结果表明,产业结构调整因素和人口规模因素是驱动二氧化硫排放的主要因素。基于研究结果,本文提出了合理调整产业结构空间布局的宏观政策,加快第三产业优化调整,加大新能源技术的科研投入,推动技术进步,加快普及使用绿色能源,提高使用效率,控制人口规模,发展智能交通,提高公众环保意识等建议。
[Abstract]:Beijing has a special status as the capital, is the national political, economic, cultural center, is a famous international metropolis, Beijing has information, health care, education and other public resources advantages, as well as a large number of employment opportunities. In recent years, the contradiction between the rapid growth of the capital population and the resources and environment of Beijing has become increasingly prominent: water resources shortage; Serious air pollution; Traffic congestion; High house prices, difficult control; The urban natural environment and ecosystem are greatly damaged and so on. And the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and spatial layout. It is of great significance to energy consumption and rational distribution of population. The direction of industrial structure adjustment is the subject that we will study. This paper finds out in the descriptive statistical analysis of air quality and industrial structure in Beijing. . The change of air quality is not only closely related to the energy consumption of industrial structure and the proportion of different industries. There is also a high similarity with the spatial layout of the industrial structure. So we select the data of energy consumption and exhaust gas emissions from 2010 to 2015 in Beijing to carry out the grey system correlation analysis. The results show that the industries closely related to the emission of exhaust gas are mostly in the tertiary industry, and the industries with the greatest correlation with the emissions are: industry, accommodation and catering industry, living consumption, transportation. The results of the storage and post industry, real estate and construction, electricity, thermal production and supply industry. Industrial and household consumption have the greatest contribution to emissions. Then we use the decomposition method of LMDI to decompose the drivers of sulfur dioxide emissions, and the results show that. The factors of industrial structure adjustment and population scale are the main factors driving sulfur dioxide emission. Based on the research results, this paper puts forward a macro policy to adjust the spatial distribution of industrial structure reasonably. We will speed up the optimization and adjustment of the tertiary industry, increase investment in scientific research on new energy technologies, promote technological progress, speed up the popularization of the use of green energy, improve the efficiency of use, control the size of the population, and develop intelligent transportation. Raise public awareness of environmental protection and other suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X51;F127

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