高技术产品出口技术复杂度视角下我国对美出口贸易研究

发布时间：2018-02-04 03:58

本文关键词： 出口技术复杂度半参数估计中美贸易引力模型　出处：《闽南师范大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在当前全球经济增速逐渐放缓、外贸市场需求依旧疲软和国际同类产品竞争日益激烈的冲击下,我国对美出口贸易也开始呈现增长乏力的态势。如何提升我国出口产品技术含量,促进出口产品结构优化,进而推动对美出口贸易增长是有待解决的课题。基于此,从高技术产品出口技术复杂度的视角研究我国对美出口贸易具有一定的现实意义。本文主要研究内容如下:一是从产品结构的角度分析我国高技术产品出口技术复杂度的演化趋势。首先,通过文献梳理界定高技术产品类别并甄选出口技术复杂度测算方法;其次,利用LMDI分解方法分析我国高技术产品出口技术复杂度演化趋势。本文认为,全球各类高技术产品出口技术复杂度的综合拉动作用是我国高技术产品出口技术复杂度快速提升的主要动力,我国高技术产品结构变动的积极影响则相对较弱。究其原因,主要是我国提升高技术产品复杂度的侧重领域与全球不一致,即全球以医药制造品和医疗设备及仪器仪表制造品为主导快速提升高技术产品出口技术复杂度,而我国主要以电子及通信设备制造品为主导提升高技术产品出口技术复杂度。二是从高技术产品出口技术复杂度的视角探讨我国对美出口贸易的影响因素。首先,从传统双边贸易引力模型出发,引入出口技术复杂度形成双边贸易引力拓展模型;其次,立足于双边贸易引力拓展模型,针对成本因素对双边贸易有影响但难于量化的特点,采用半参数估计方法实证分析我国对美出口贸易的影响因素。本文认为,以人民币汇率作为成本因素替代变量并作为非参数部分,采用半参数估计方法进行计量模型估计更为恰当。实证结果证实我国对美出口贸易与人民币汇率之间具有较强的依存关系,贸易成本因素的不确定性影响了我国对美出口贸易。在这种贸易成本因素不确定性影响下,我国对美出口贸易不断扩张确实得益于我国高技术产品出口技术复杂度快速提升。因此,我国对美出口贸易要稳定增长,关键在于降低中美间贸易成本因素不确定性,优化高技术产品结构,重点提升医药制造品和医疗设备及仪器仪表制造品等领域的出口技术复杂度,以此稳步推进我国高技术产品的技术含量。
[Abstract]:In the current global economic growth rate gradually slow down, foreign trade market demand is still weak and international similar products increasingly fierce competition under the impact. China's export trade to the United States has also begun to show a trend of weak growth. How to improve the technical content of our export products and promote the optimization of export product structure. Therefore, promoting the growth of export trade to the United States is a problem to be solved. It is of practical significance to study China's export trade to the United States from the perspective of technological complexity of high-tech products export. The main contents of this paper are as follows:. The first is to analyze the evolution trend of the technological complexity of high-tech products export from the point of view of product structure. First of all. Define the category of high-tech products through literature review and select the method of measuring the complexity of export technology; Secondly, using LMDI decomposition method to analyze the trend of technological complexity evolution of high-tech products export in China. The comprehensive pulling effect of global high-tech export technology complexity is the main driving force for the rapid increase of high-tech export technology complexity in China. The positive impact of the structure change of high-tech products in China is relatively weak. The main reason is that the focus areas of China to enhance the complexity of high-tech products are not consistent with the global. That is, the global pharmaceutical manufactures and medical equipment and instruments manufacturing products as the leading rapid increase in high-tech products export technology complexity. The second is to discuss the influence factors of China's export trade to the United States from the perspective of the technical complexity of high-tech products export. . Based on the traditional bilateral trade gravity model, this paper introduces the complexity of export technology to form a bilateral trade gravity expansion model. Secondly, based on the bilateral trade gravity expansion model, the cost factors have an impact on bilateral trade, but difficult to quantify the characteristics. This paper empirically analyzes the influencing factors of China's export trade to the United States by using the semi-parametric estimation method. This paper argues that the RMB exchange rate is used as a cost factor to replace the variables and as a non-parametric part. The empirical results confirm that China's export trade to the United States has a strong dependence on the RMB exchange rate. The uncertainty of trade cost factors affects China's export trade to the United States. The continuous expansion of China's export trade to the United States really benefits from the rapid increase in the technical complexity of our high-tech exports. Therefore, China's export trade to the United States should grow steadily. The key lies in reducing the uncertainty of trade costs between China and the United States, optimizing the structure of high-tech products, and focusing on increasing the technical complexity of exports in areas such as pharmaceutical manufactures and medical equipment and instrumentation manufactures. In order to steadily promote the technical content of high-tech products in China.
【学位授予单位】：闽南师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.62

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