河南省人口迁移及其对城市化效率的影响研究

发布时间：2018-02-23 22:10

本文关键词： 人口迁移城市化综合效率评价空间计量模型　出处：《郑州大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着社会的发展,生产力的提高,人口在不同地区之间迁移是人类社会发展的必然规律。人口的空间分布及其迁移状况不仅能够反映出相应地区的发展情况,更会影响一个地区的经济发展、产业结构及城市布局的变化。河南省作为一个人口大省,研究其城市的人口空间分布及迁移,城市化状况及其效率,人口迁移对城市化效率的影响是研究河南省城市发展的重要部分,是提高河南省发展的前提与基础。本文基于河南省人口普查数据、《河南省统计年鉴》及相关年鉴,对河南省的人口空间分布及迁移,河南省城市化的发展历史及现状做出相关统计性分析,然后构建DEA模型测度河南省的城市化效率,分析河南省城市化的效率状况,并通过构建空间计量模型分析河南省人口迁移对河南省城市化效率的影响及空间溢出效应。研究结论如下:第一、从人口规模上来看,河南省人口基数很大,但是人口分布不均,且城乡比例失调。从人口的密度分析,河南省人口高密度地区主要集中在中部、东部及北部,而西、南部人口相对稀疏。通过全域空间自相关分析发现,河南省人口存在集聚现象。河南省的迁移人口主要以青壮年为主,受教育程度较低,且从事的职业多以体力型为主,智力型职业相对较少。且人口迁移主要受到经济社会发展及政策导向的影响。第二、河南省城市化发展经历了缓慢增长、不稳定波动、稳固及快速发展四个历史阶段,目前河南省城市化水平较低,城市化滞后于工业化,城市综合竞争力虽有上升,但内涵发展不足。河南省各地市的城市化效率差别较大,总体上看,河南省城市化综合效率在近十年间呈下降趋势,而纯技术效率相对稳定,由于规模效率的下降从而引起综合效率的下降。第三、河南省城市化效率在空间上呈现出高值聚集的状态,通过空间计量模型分析发现河南省城市化效率存在正向的空间溢出效应,城市化效率的提高会带动周边城市的效率;人口迁移对河南省城市化效率存在显著地正向效应,且人口迁移对城市化效率也存在正向的空间溢出效应,即人口迁移会提升周边的城市化效率。最后,针对河南省的目前状况,给出了相应的政策建议,河南省应加强城市间协调发展,合理引导人口流动;深化科技体制改革,坚持内涵式发展,提高城市化效率;发挥龙头城市示范作用,加大中心城市建设投入。
[Abstract]:With the development of society and the improvement of productivity, the migration of population among different regions is the inevitable law of the development of human society. The spatial distribution of population and its migration can not only reflect the development of the corresponding region. Henan Province, as a large population province, studies the spatial distribution and migration of population, urbanization and its efficiency. The effect of population migration on the efficiency of urbanization is an important part of the study on the urban development of Henan Province and the premise and foundation of improving the development of Henan Province. This paper is based on the census data of Henan Province, the Statistical Yearbook of Henan Province and the related yearbooks. This paper makes a statistical analysis on the spatial distribution and migration of population in Henan Province, the history and present situation of urbanization in Henan Province, and then constructs a DEA model to measure the efficiency of urbanization in Henan Province, and analyzes the efficiency of urbanization in Henan Province. And through the construction of spatial econometric model to analyze the impact of population migration on the efficiency of urbanization and spatial spillover effect in Henan Province. The conclusions are as follows: first, from the population scale, Henan Province population base is very large. However, the population distribution is uneven, and the ratio between urban and rural areas is unbalanced. From the population density analysis, the population density areas in Henan Province are mainly concentrated in the middle, east and north, while the population in the west and south is relatively sparse. The migration population in Henan Province is mainly young and middle-aged, with a low level of education, and the occupation is mainly physical. Intellectual occupation is relatively few, and population migration is mainly influenced by economic and social development and policy direction. Second, urbanization in Henan Province has experienced four historical stages: slow growth, unstable fluctuation, steady and rapid development. At present, the urbanization level of Henan Province is relatively low, the urbanization lags behind the industrialization, although the comprehensive competitiveness of the city has risen, but the connotation development is insufficient. The comprehensive efficiency of urbanization in Henan Province has been decreasing in recent ten years, but the efficiency of pure technology is relatively stable. The decline of scale efficiency leads to the decline of comprehensive efficiency. Third, The urbanization efficiency of Henan Province shows the state of high value aggregation in space. Through the analysis of spatial econometric model, it is found that there is a positive spatial spillover effect on the urbanization efficiency in Henan Province, and the improvement of urbanization efficiency will lead to the efficiency of surrounding cities. Population migration has a significant positive effect on the efficiency of urbanization in Henan Province, and there is also a positive spatial spillover effect of population migration on the efficiency of urbanization, that is, population migration will enhance the efficiency of urbanization around. In view of the present situation of Henan Province, the corresponding policy suggestions are given, such as strengthening the coordinated development among cities, reasonably guiding the population flow, deepening the reform of science and technology system, insisting on the implicit development, and improving the efficiency of urbanization. Play a leading role in urban demonstration, increasing investment in the construction of central cities.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C922;F299.27

【相似文献】