人口转型、技术进步与农业可持续增长

发布时间：2018-03-02 22:30

本文选题：人口转型　切入点：技术进步　出处：《陕西师范大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：人口转型与传统的人口转变概念不同,是指人口生产由高生育率向高人力资本积累率转变的过程。伴随工业化进程的一个典型事实是人口生产由数量偏好向质量偏好的转变。正是人口转型,带来了传统经济和现代经济的划时代存在,也区分了工业化经济取代传统经济、现代经济超越工业化经济的两个阶段。没有人口转型形成的人力资本内生化机制,不可能有工业化高级阶段的推进和现代化的实现。社会经济的发展是影响农村家庭子女数量的重要因素。当真实收入增加时,农村家庭更倾向于增加对子女质量的投资而非增加子女数量。从子女身上获取更高的利益回报率并不来源于更多数量的子女,而是子女受教育水平的提高。对于父母来说,提高子女教育水平即提高后代人口质量的意愿更为强烈,在经济的制约下,提高子女人口质量的前提是减少子女的数量,这就是人口的质量替代数量,即人口转型的过程。在农业劳动力和农业用地非农化趋势不可逆转的背景下,中国农业可持续增长所要依赖的不再是传统农业生产要素。土地、劳动要素的边际效益递减的特征决定了对农业可持续增长影响的有限性,使得中国传统农业发展模式变得不再适用。农业生产中新技术的使用对传统要素的替代克服了资源的约束,而技术进步可以不断突破边际报酬的最大化边际,其边际效益递增的特点,决定了技术进步是现代农业增长的源泉。农业人口转型在减少农业劳动力数量的同时,提高劳动力的质量,加速了农业剩余劳动力向非农部门的转移,有利于农业物质资本的积累,并且提高了农业劳动力的人力资本水平。为农业技术进步带来了人口、物质、资本的保障,从而推动技术进步,保证农业的可持续增长。为验证理论分析所得结论,分别通过对已完成人口转型的14个发达国家和中国的30个省的的面板数据进行计量检验,验证人口转型、技术进步与农业产出的关系。通过建立面板数据模型,验证了发达国家农用机械与化肥的使用影响了农业的增长,而土地、劳动力对发达国家农业增长所起作用已经殆尽。中国东、中、西三部分地区,由于社会经济发展的不平衡性,各要素对农业增长起到的影响不同。经济发展水平不同的地区,农业传统要素及技术进步水平对农业可持续增长的影响大小也不同。但不论经济水平高低,农业人口转型和技术进步都具有显著的正相关关系。表明人口转型已成为影响当前中国农业技术进步的重要因素。随着工业化和城市化的推进,人口转型已成为农业可持续增长的唯一有效途径。人口转型的经验事实表明,中国经济发展已进入加速现代化进程的新阶段。在工业化中后期阶段时,农业发展政策也应相应转型,利用人口转型所带来人口质量红利,提升农村人力资本配置的效率。保证农村剩余劳动力的顺利转移的同时提高农业人口人力资本水平,利用农业人口质量的提升来推动农业技术进步和现代化。充分发挥和释放“教育红利”的潜在优势,提升全要素中人力资本的配置效率,以强化对经济增长的贡献率。立足于对技术进步的有效投资和创新水平的不断提升以维持和提高经济增长的可持续性,使创新成为新的经济增长动力
[Abstract]:Different with the traditional concept of population changes in the demographic transition, the population is produced by the high birth rate of human capital accumulation to the high rate of change. With the process of a typical fact of industrialization is the population production shift from quantity to quality preference preference. It is the demographic transition, bringing the traditional economy and modern economy epoch there also, the distinction between the industrial economy to replace the traditional economy and modern economy beyond the two stages of industrial economy. No biochemical mechanism of the population transition form of human capital, may not have achieved the advanced stage of industrialization and modernization. The social and economic development is an important factor affecting the number of children in rural families. When the real income increases, rural households tend to increase on children quality investment rather than increase the number of children. To obtain higher interest rate of return does not come from more from their children. Number of children, but children's education level. For parents, improve children's education level is to improve the quality of the population will offspring more strongly in the economic constraints under the premise to improve the child's quality is to reduce the number of children, this is the population quality instead of quantity, namely the demographic transition process. In the agricultural labor and agricultural land conversion is an irreversible trend under the background of sustainable growth China agriculture is no longer rely on traditional agricultural production factors. Land, limited characteristics of diminishing marginal benefit of labor factor determines the impact on agricultural sustainable growth, China makes the traditional mode of agricultural development is no longer applicable. The use of new technology of agricultural production in the replacement of traditional elements to overcome the constraints of resources, and technological progress can continue to break the marginal return maximum margin, the edge As the characteristics of increasing returns, determines the technological progress is the source of modern agricultural growth. Agricultural population transformation in reducing the number of agricultural labor at the same time, improve the quality of the labor force, to accelerate the transfer of agricultural surplus labor to non-agricultural sectors, agriculture is conducive to the accumulation of physical capital, and improve the human capital level of agricultural labor force brought. Population, material for agricultural technological progress, capital guarantee, so as to promote technological progress, ensure the sustainable growth of agriculture. In order to verify the theoretical analysis concluded, respectively through econometric test on the panel data of 30 provinces in 14 developed countries and China population transformation has been completed, verification of population transformation, the relationship between technology progress with the agricultural output. Through the establishment of panel data model, validation of the use of agricultural machinery and fertilizer in developed countries affects the growth of agriculture, land and labor. Work has been exhausted for agricultural growth in developed countries. Chinese East, West three parts, due to social and economic development imbalance, the influence factors of agricultural growth to different levels of economic development. Different regions, the size of the traditional elements of agriculture and the level of technological progress effect on agricultural sustainable growth is also different but no matter the economic level, agricultural population transformation and technological progress have significant positive correlation. It shows that the demographic transition has become an important factor affecting the current China. With the progress of agricultural technology industrialization and city to promote population transformation has become the only effective way of agricultural sustainable growth. In the demographic transition that Chinese economic development has entered a new stage to accelerate the modernization process. In the mid late stage of industrialization, agricultural development policies should also be a corresponding transformation, using the demographic transition The quality of the population dividend, improve the efficiency of rural human capital allocation. To ensure the smooth transfer of rural surplus labor force and improve the level of human capital of agricultural population, the agricultural population to improve the quality to promote the progress of agricultural technology and modernization. The potential advantages into full play and the release of "education bonus", enhancing the human capital total factor in the configuration in order to strengthen the efficiency, the contribution rate of economic growth. Based on the technological progress of the effective investment and innovation and improve the level of sustainability to maintain and enhance the economic growth, innovation has become a new economic growth momentum

【学位授予单位】：陕西师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：C924.2;F323

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