聊城市新建住宅商品房价格影响因素实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-07 14:54

本文选题：房地产　切入点：新建住宅商品房价格　出处：《山东建筑大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文以现在全社会普遍关注的热点问题----房地产价格为研究背景,将研究对象聚焦到聊城市新建住宅商品房价格影响因素研究,在充分研究国内外学术领域相关文献的基础上,选取聊城市的相关统计数据,将聊城市新建住宅商品房价格作为自变量,聊城市国民生产总值、房地产开发投资额、总人口、人均可支配收入、总消费品零售总额、销售面积、利率、货币增量M2等八个指标作为解释变量,建立多元线性回归模型,运用STATA计算机软件对其影响因素进行多元线性回归分析,在分析结果明显存在多重共线性的情况下,通过逐步回归分析得出显著影响房价的主要影响因素,并对结果进行自相关检验。综合分析后得出总人口和国民生产总值是影响聊城市新建住宅商品房价格的最显著因素,并确定显著性变量对聊城市新建住宅商品房价格的贡献程度:生产总值(亿元)每增加1亿元,会使预售住宅均价增加1.45元,总人口(万人)每增加1万人,会使预售住宅均价增加25元。根据实证分析得出的结论,聊城市年度房地产开发总投资、聊城市年度社会消费品总量、人均可支配收入、全国货币供应量M2、贷款利率、年销售面积这些因素在聊城市新建住宅商品房价格中发挥的作用几乎可以忽略,或者说影响不是很显著。影响因素中聊城市的国民生产总值为显著因素,与经济发展情况密不可分,而且聊城市国民生产总值与该地区新建住宅商品房的价格呈正相关关系。影响因素中聊城市的总人口为显著因素,说明总人口的增长是促使房价增长的显著因素,人口总量与新建住宅商品房价格呈正相关关系。根据聊城市房地产市场的实际情况结合自己的研究结论,提出保持经济平稳增长、加强市场调控,扶持二手房市场和租赁市场的发展,引导房地产理性健康发展、扩大保障性住房供给,合理引导住房主体需求、加快农村城镇化建设等政策建议来引导聊城市新建住宅商品房市场健康有序的发展。本论文的正文内容一共由六部分组成:第一章的绪论从本论文的研究背景以及研究的现实意义先来展开,其次讨论的是研究目的及方法,最后是关于此次研究的内容剖析、创新点以及技术路线;第二章文献综述主要介绍国内外相关研究的成果,对房地产价格的构成、特征、规律、决定价格的观点以及房地产价格的影响因素进行阐述;第三章模型建立主要通过分析确定聊城市新建住宅商品房价格的主要影响因素,建立研究模型;第四章聊城市新建住宅商品房价格的影响因素实证分析,采用多元线性回归的方法,通过STATA软件辅助,进行实证研究,构建聊城市住宅房地产价格的模型。第五章是在对聊城市新建住宅商品房价格通过理论和实证研究后得出的结果进行总结分析,提出政策与建议;第六章对本次研究结果进行总结,同时对论文中的问题与不足进行分析。
[Abstract]:Based on the research background of real estate price, this paper focuses on the study of the factors affecting the price of newly built commercial housing in Liaocheng, and on the basis of the research on the relevant literature in the academic field at home and abroad, the paper focuses on the research background of real estate price, which is a hot issue that the whole society is paying close attention to. Select the relevant statistics of Liaocheng City, take the price of new residential commercial housing as independent variable, Liaocheng GNP, real estate development investment, total population, per capita disposable income, total retail sales of consumer goods, sales area, Interest rate and money increment M2 are taken as explanatory variables to establish multivariate linear regression model, and STATA computer software is used to carry out multivariate linear regression analysis of the influencing factors. Through stepwise regression analysis, the main influencing factors of house price are obtained, and the results are tested by autocorrelation. The comprehensive analysis shows that the total population and gross national product are the most significant factors affecting the price of newly built commercial housing in Liaocheng city. And determine the contribution of significant variables to the price of newly built commercial housing in Liaocheng: every 100 million yuan increase in gross domestic product (100 million yuan) will increase the average price of pre-sale housing by 1.45 yuan, and the total population (10,000 people) will increase by 10,000 people per year. It will increase the average price of pre-sold housing by 25 yuan. According to the conclusion of the empirical analysis, the total investment in real estate development in Liaocheng City, the total amount of social consumer goods in Liaocheng City in the year, the per capita disposable income, the national money supply M2, and the loan interest rate will be increased. The effect of these factors on the price of newly built commercial housing in Liaocheng is almost negligible, or not very significant. The gross national product (GNP) of Liaocheng is a significant factor. The gross national product of Liaocheng has a positive correlation with the price of newly built commercial housing in Liaocheng. The total population of Liaocheng is a significant factor. It shows that the growth of the total population is a significant factor in the increase of house price, and the total population is positively correlated with the price of new commercial housing. According to the actual situation of real estate market in Liaocheng City, it combines with its own research conclusion. It is proposed to maintain steady economic growth, strengthen market regulation and control, support the development of the second-hand housing market and the rental market, guide the rational and healthy development of real estate, expand the supply of affordable housing, and reasonably guide the main demand of housing. Policy suggestions such as speeding up the construction of rural urbanization to guide the healthy and orderly development of the market of newly built commercial housing in Liaocheng. The main text of this thesis is composed of six parts: the introduction of the first chapter from the research background of this paper. And the practical significance of the study. Secondly, the purpose and method of the research are discussed. Finally, the content analysis, innovation points and technical route of the research are discussed. The second chapter mainly introduces the domestic and foreign related research results, the composition, characteristics and rules of the real estate price. The third chapter establishes the model mainly through the analysis to determine the main factors affecting the price of the new housing in Liaocheng, and establishes the research model; In chapter 4th, the empirical analysis of the influencing factors of the price of newly built commercial housing in Liaocheng City is carried out by using the method of multiple linear regression and the aid of STATA software. Chapter 5th summarizes and analyzes the results of the theoretical and empirical research on the price of newly built commercial housing in Liaocheng, and puts forward some policies and suggestions. Chapter 6th summarizes the results of this study and analyzes the problems and deficiencies in the paper.
【学位授予单位】：山东建筑大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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