外商直接投资对中国与东亚经济周期协动性影响的研究

发布时间：2018-03-07 19:50

本文选题：经济周期　切入点：协动性　出处：《东南大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着世界经济的发展和开放程度的不断提高,各个国家之间的经济周期波动出现了协动性,即经济体同步扩张或收缩的现象。引起国家之间的经济周期波动协动性的主要因素很多,由于外商直接投资(FDI)在国际经济往来中发挥越来越重要的作用,所以被纳入作为研究影响经济周期协动性的重要的外来冲击因素,基于东亚与中国经济的联系以及作为中国外商直接投资重要的互动地区,研究外商直接投资对中国和东亚经济周期协动性的影响,有利于把握中国经济与东亚经济周期运行规律,加强经济合作和政策协调,从而促进中国经济平稳发展。本文选取了东亚主要的14个经济体,对它们与中国之间的双边经济周期协动性进行了定性和定量研究,通过实际增长率分析得知中国FDI增长率波动的幅度要大大超过GDP增长率的波动幅度,并且FDI增长率的波动与经济周期的波动呈现出相关性。本文构建经济指标分别衡量了中国与东亚各经济体的双边经济周期协动性、外商直接投资、贸易和产业内贸易情况,结合HP滤波分析对包括中国在内的15个东亚经济体的GDP序列进行分解,提取周期波动项后,得出东亚的经济波动存在一定程度的同步性。本文并且还研究样本时间跨度内存在的共同扩张期和收缩期,并在此基础之上建立面板数据模型,实证分析FDI对经济周期波动的影响。综合以上研究结果,在FDI对中国与东亚经济周期协动性的变化分析中,中国与东亚经济体的经济周期协动性和直接投资存在正相关关系,当两个经济体之间的双边FDI强度增大,它们之间的经济周期协动性就增强,但实证分析结果虽然表明FDI对经济周期协动性影响的方向是正向的,但是在统计上并不显著。最后基于文章的研究过程和结果,提出重视反周期政策的制定和提高外资利用效率,合理引入外商直接投资的政策建议,注重发挥FDI对经济扩张时期的有利影响,避免外资来源过于集中,放大中国与投资来源地区的经济负面互动,缓解由于总量波动过大和比例失衡所引起的周期波动,从而确保经济的平稳运行。
[Abstract]:With the development of the world economy and the increasing degree of opening up, the fluctuation of the economic cycle among the various countries has appeared to be synergistic. That is, the phenomenon of synchronous expansion or contraction of economies. There are many main factors that cause the economic cycle fluctuations among countries to be synergistic. Since foreign direct investment (FDI) FDI (foreign direct investment) plays an increasingly important role in international economic exchanges, Therefore, being included as an important external shock factor to study the coactivity of the economic cycle, based on the relationship between East Asia and China's economy and as an important interactive region of China's foreign direct investment, Studying the influence of foreign direct investment (FDI) on China and East Asia's economic cycle is beneficial to grasp the law of Chinese economy and East Asian economic cycle, and to strengthen economic cooperation and policy coordination. In order to promote the smooth development of China's economy, this paper selects 14 major economies in East Asia to carry out qualitative and quantitative studies on the bilateral economic cycle synergy between them and China. Through the analysis of the real growth rate, we can see that the fluctuation range of China's FDI growth rate is much larger than that of the GDP growth rate. Moreover, the fluctuation of FDI growth rate is correlated with the fluctuation of economic cycle. This paper constructs economic indicators to measure the bilateral economic cycle synergy, foreign direct investment, trade and intra-industry trade between China and East Asian economies, respectively. Combined with HP filter analysis, the GDP sequences of 15 East Asian economies, including China, are decomposed to extract periodic fluctuations. This paper also studies the common expansion period and contraction period in the sample time span, and establishes the panel data model on the basis of which the economic fluctuation in East Asia has a certain degree of synchronism. This paper empirically analyzes the influence of FDI on the economic cycle fluctuation, and synthesizes the above results, and in the analysis of the cooperativity between China and East Asia, there is a positive correlation between the economic cycle coactivity and direct investment in China and East Asian economies. When the bilateral FDI intensity between the two economies increases, the business cycle synergy between them increases, but the empirical analysis results show that the direction of the FDI influence on the economic cycle coactivity is positive. However, it is not statistically significant. Finally, based on the research process and results of the paper, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to make counter-cyclical policies, how to improve the efficiency of foreign capital utilization, and how to introduce foreign direct investment reasonably. We should pay attention to giving full play to the favorable influence of FDI on the period of economic expansion, avoid the excessive concentration of foreign capital sources, enlarge the negative economic interaction between China and the regions where the investment comes from, and alleviate the periodic fluctuations caused by the excessive fluctuation of the total amount and the imbalance of the proportion. Thus ensuring the smooth operation of the economy.
【学位授予单位】：东南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F113.7;F124.8

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