FDI变局对我国国际投资头寸表影响问题研究

发布时间：2018-03-16 10:00

  本文选题：国际投资头寸表　切入点：FDI　出处：《东北财经大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自改革开放以来,我国资本流入主要体现为外商直接投资(Foreign Direct Investment,简称FDI)的形式。根据联合国贸易发展组织发布的《世界投资报告2015》,中国FDI流入规模首次超过美国,成为世界第一大外资流入国。长期以来,不断流入的FDI累积形成了规模庞大的负债存量,成为我国国际投资头寸表(International Investment Position,简称 IIP)中负债项目的主体部分,源源不断流入的FDI不仅增加了我国外汇储备,也在一定程度上弥补了先期流入的FDI资本撤离与FDI利润汇回,使我国IIP净头寸得以稳定增长。然而,随着我国资金缺口的缩窄,利用FDI缓解国内资金不足的意义逐渐降低,长期累积的FDI存量不仅成为了我国IIP负债的主体,还在我国获取了高额的收益。传统理论普遍认为FDI一种长期投资方式,具有较强的稳定性,当经济形势逆转时,FDI不容易撤出。但是,近年来由于我国经济结构调整、劳动力成本提高和引资优惠政策力度的减弱,外商投资企业对我国大幅减投,逐渐将资金转投于越南、老挝等成本低廉的国家或地区,FDI呈现出高于以往的波动性,在流入与利润汇出方面都发生了显著的变化,尤其是历年累积在我国的留存利润,不仅形成了规模庞大的存量,而且这部分利润若集中汇出,将会对我国IIP产生一定的影响。本文以FDI变局为背景,重点研究FDI对国际投资头寸表产生的影响,基于卡莱斯基模型,从FDI流入、FDI撤出和利润汇出三个方面分析了其影响机制,当FDI不再源源不断流入时,当期流入的FDI将无法弥补早期FDI撤离与利润汇回,此时需要足够的资产以满足资本流出,这将会导致净头寸规模缩减,最终恶化国际投资头寸表,尤其早期留存的巨额利润更加增大了国际投资头寸表恶化的风险。全文共分为六大部分:第一部分是绪论,包括论文的选题背景、选题意义,相关文献综述、本文框架结构、本文创新及不足;第二部分是理论分析,主要是FDI与IIP的相关理论。主要阐述卡莱斯基模型,分析FDI对IIP的影响机制,并且具体分析了我国FDI与IIP的关系及其影响机制;第三部分是描述性统计,主要是FDI对ⅡP影响的描述性统计。分析FDI对国际投资头寸表中资产、负债、净头寸各个主要项目所带来的影响;第四部分是实证研究,主要是论证了 FDI对ⅡP产生影响的原因。运用协整检验与误差修证模型分别从长期均衡与短期波动进行分析与论证;第五部分是估计与预测,主要是在不同情景下,针对FDI对我国ⅡP可能产生的影响进行估计与预测;第六部分是结论与政策建议,总结前文研究得出结论,并提出优化国际投资头寸表、加强利润汇出管理、鼓励对外投资、加快人民国际化进程等具有可行性的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's capital inflows have mainly taken the form of foreign direct investment (Direct). According to the World Investment report published by the United Nations Trade and Development Organization (WTO), for the first time, China's FDI inflow has exceeded that of the United States. It has become the largest foreign capital inflow country in the world. For a long time, the continuous inflow of FDI has formed a huge amount of debt stock, and has become the main part of the debt items in the international investment position statement of our country. The continuous inflow of FDI not only increases China's foreign exchange reserves, but also to some extent makes up for the withdrawal of FDI capital inflow and the return of FDI profits, which makes the net IIP position of our country grow steadily. However, with the narrowing of China's capital gap, The significance of using FDI to alleviate the shortage of domestic funds is gradually decreasing. The long-term accumulated stock of FDI has not only become the main body of our country's IIP debt, but also made high profits in our country. Traditional theory generally thinks that FDI is a kind of long-term investment mode. FDI is not easy to withdraw when the economic situation reverses. However, in recent years, due to the adjustment of economic structure, the increase of labor cost and the weakening of preferential policies for attracting foreign investment, foreign-invested enterprises have greatly reduced their investment in China. Gradually transferring capital to Vietnam, Laos and other low-cost countries or regions, FDI has shown higher volatility than in the past, and there have been significant changes in the inflow and repatriation of profits, especially the accumulated retained profits in China over the years. Not only has the stock formed a large scale, but if this part of profit is remitted, it will have a certain influence on the IIP of our country. This paper focuses on the impact of FDI on the international investment position table with the background of FDI variation. Based on Kalesky model, this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of FDI inflow and FDI withdrawal and profit remittance from three aspects. When FDI is no longer flowing in, the current FDI will not be able to make up for the early FDI withdrawal and profit repatriation. At this point, sufficient assets are needed to meet the capital outflow, which will result in a reduction in the size of the net position, which will eventually worsen the international investment position table. In particular, the large profits retained in the early period further increase the risk of deterioration of the IIP. The thesis is divided into six parts: the first part is the introduction, including the background of the thesis, the significance of the topic, the relevant literature review, the framework of this paper. The second part is the theoretical analysis, mainly the related theories of FDI and IIP. It mainly expounds the Kalesky model, analyzes the influence mechanism of FDI on IIP, and analyzes the relationship between FDI and IIP in China and its influence mechanism. The third part is descriptive statistics, mainly the descriptive statistics of the impact of FDI on IIP. The paper analyzes the impact of FDI on the main items of international investment position, such as assets, liabilities and net positions. Part 4th is an empirical study. This paper mainly demonstrates the reason why FDI has an effect on 鈪，

本文编号：1619415