我国货币政策影响房地产投资的传导机制研究

发布时间：2018-03-16 18:13

本文选题：货币政策传导　切入点：房地产投资　出处：《山东大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近些年来房地产行业的高速发展,极大地推动了我国经济的增长,其与宏观经济之间的联动性也越来越明显。在房地产市场爆发式增长的同时,其间的一些隐患也值得人们关注。我国的房地产行业存在供需结构不平衡、房价增速过快等问题,为了维持房地产市场稳定健康的发展,我国政府出台了多项相关政策,其中货币政策在对房地产市场的调控中也发挥了举足轻重的作用。本文在货币政策传导理论的研究框架之下,将房地产投资作为研究对象,首先对其受到政策冲击的传导机制进行了理论分析,然后进行实证研究。理论分析表明,我国的货币政策传导机制与典型的市场经济国家相比有着诸多不同,目前我国尚存在存贷利率管制,且汇率浮动并不完全受市场因素影响,这些体制性因素对货币政策的利率、汇率传导渠道产生了一定的阻碍,降低了传导效率。在理论分析的基础上,本文从信贷渠道和房地产价格渠道入手,搜集了房屋新开工面积、货币供应量M2、金融机构贷款余额、公共财政支出、房地产价格指数、上海银行间同业拆借利率等宏观经济月度数据,通过构建VAR、VECM等计量模型,对房地产投资的传导机制做了实证分析。结果表明,信贷规模实际上仍受到央行的直接干预,构成除货币供应量以外的另一货币政策中介目标,而货币政策对房地产投资的传导主要依赖于信贷渠道;货币政策对房地产价格有一定的传导效应,宽松的货币政策在一定程度上对房价泡沫起到了支撑作用,但房价涨跌与房地产投资之间的相关关系并不明确。最终,本文建议应当建设更加市场化的货币政策体系,避免政府直接干预信贷规模的负面影响,同时应当配合使用多种政策工具,发挥信贷、利率等传导机制对房地产投资的调控作用。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the rapid development of the real estate industry has greatly promoted the economic growth of our country, and the linkage between the real estate industry and the macro economy is becoming more and more obvious. In order to maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, our government has issued a number of related policies. Monetary policy also plays an important role in the regulation of the real estate market. Under the framework of monetary policy transmission theory, this paper takes real estate investment as the research object. Firstly, the transmission mechanism which is impacted by policy is theoretically analyzed, and then the empirical research is carried out. The theoretical analysis shows that the monetary policy transmission mechanism of our country is different from that of typical market economy countries. At present, there are still deposit and loan interest rate controls in our country, and exchange rate fluctuations are not completely affected by market factors. These institutional factors have hindered the interest rate and exchange rate transmission channel of monetary policy to a certain extent. On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper starts with the credit channel and the real estate price channel, collects the newly started housing area, the money supply M2, the loan balance of the financial institution, the public finance expenditure, the real estate price index, Based on the monthly macroeconomic data, such as Shanghai Interbank offered rate, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the transmission mechanism of real estate investment through the construction of VAR-VECM and other econometric models. The results show that the scale of credit is still directly interfered by the central bank. The transmission of monetary policy to real estate investment mainly depends on credit channels, and monetary policy has a certain transmission effect on real estate prices. The loose monetary policy has played a supporting role to the housing price bubble to some extent, but the correlation between the rise and fall of the house price and the real estate investment is not clear. Finally, the paper suggests that a more market-oriented monetary policy system should be built. In order to avoid the negative influence of direct government intervention on the scale of credit, we should cooperate with many kinds of policy tools to play the role of credit, interest rate and other transmission mechanisms in regulating real estate investment.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F822.0

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