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基于人口行政记录的双系统模型及其应用

发布时间:2018-03-20 11:30

  本文选题:人口普查质量评估 切入点:事后调查法 出处:《天津财经大学》2016年硕士论文 论文类型:学位论文


【摘要】:国家的经济政策和社会发展规划都需要依据国内的人口状况进行制定,人口普查是各国获取人口数据的主要方法,使用人口普查数据之前,首先要保证数据信息的准确性,因此,人口普查质量评估成为了人口普查工作的重中之重。国际上,常用的评估方法是事后调查法,基于捕获再捕获抽样的双系统模型是事后调查法的核心。双系统模型在人口普查评估中的应用存在三个问题:第一,双系统模型的应用需要严格的假设条件。第二,事后调查不仅提高了调查成本,还会给被调查者带来负担。第三,由于对人口信息的保密性,导致了国内学者对双系统模型的研究侧重于理论解读,实证研究较少。引入人口行政记录改进双系统模型在我国的应用,意在为人口普查质量评估提供一个参考。考虑到人口行政记录的优良性,可以用人口行政记录数据来代替事后调查数据,构建基于人口行政记录的双系统模型,以拓展双系统模型在人口普查评估中的应用。以中国第六次人口普查为例,与普查时间不一致的人口行政记录,利用人口变动平衡方程进行调整,使用第六次人口普查数据和调整后的人口行政记录数据构建双系统模型估计人口总量。由于人口行政记录数据的来源不同,估计量结果也不尽相同,综合考虑2009-2011年的人口行政记录信息,对三个估计量做一个校准估计,评估结果会更具有参考价值。结果显示中国第六次人口普查质量在可接受范围内。由于人口行政记录是政府部门依法获取的人口统计资料,数据来源完全独立于人口普查,能够克服普查和事后调查不独立引起的交互作用偏差。此外,人口行政记录数据具有获取成本低、无回答少等优点。建立基于人口行政记录的双系统模型,不仅能满足双系统模型适用的假设条件,还能在无微观个人数据的情况下提供一种较好的人口估计方法。
[Abstract]:National economic policies and social development plans need to be formulated on the basis of the population situation in the country. Census is the main method used by countries to obtain population data. Before using census data, the accuracy of data information must be guaranteed first. Therefore, census quality assessment has become a top priority in census work. In the world, the commonly used assessment method is the ex post survey method. The dual system model based on capture and recapture sampling is the core of the ex post investigation method. There are three problems in the application of double system model in census assessment: first, the application of double system model needs strict assumptions. Ex post investigation not only increases the investigation cost, but also brings the burden to the respondents. Thirdly, because of the confidentiality of population information, the domestic scholars focus on the theoretical interpretation of the double system model. There are few empirical studies. The application of the improved dual system model of population administrative records in China is intended to provide a reference for the quality assessment of population census. We can use the population administrative record data instead of the ex post survey data, and construct the dual system model based on the population administrative record to expand the application of the double system model in the census evaluation. Take the 6th population census in China as an example. Administrative records of population that are inconsistent with census time are adjusted by using the balance equation of population change, Using 6th census data and adjusted population administrative record data to construct a double-system model to estimate the total population. Due to the different sources of population administrative record data, the estimated results are also different. Taking into account the information on the administrative records of the population for the period 2009-2011, a calibrated estimate of the three estimates is made, The results show that the quality of the 6th population censuses in China is within an acceptable range. Because the population administrative records are demographic data obtained by government departments according to law, the data source is completely independent of the census. It can overcome the interaction bias caused by the independence of census and ex post investigation. In addition, the population administrative record data has the advantages of low cost of obtaining, no answer and so on. A dual system model based on population administrative record is established. It can not only satisfy the hypothetical conditions of the two-system model, but also provide a better method for population estimation without microcosmic personal data.
【学位授予单位】:天津财经大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2016
【分类号】:C924.25

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