中国资本外逃规模估算和影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-03-24 19:25

本文选题：资本外逃　切入点：规模估算　出处：《华东师范大学》2006年硕士论文

【摘要】：加入WTO之后，中国经济加快了融入全球经济的步伐，这使中国获得一个更为开放的市场，同时也使中国面临着更为严峻的挑战。国际间流动的资本成为了当今世界经济中最为活跃的力量，资本外逃是一种特殊的资本流动现象，具有极强的隐蔽性，其规模很难被准确测算，并且对一国经济生活产生极大的影响。首先，本文在回顾国内外学者对资本外逃定义研究结果的前提下，总结了资本外逃的一些特征：资本外逃，相对于正常的资本流动而言，它是一种非正常的资本流动。包含了短期资本和长期资本，其动机是比较复杂的，经济、政治和社会的因素都可以成为资本外逃的原因。其次，为了对资本外逃进行规模的测算，必须先研究资本外逃的途径，根据国际收支平衡表中的三个大项，逐一进行分析了资本外逃的途径，并结合我国近几年入世后经济贸易环境的变化，探讨可能出现的新的资本外逃途径。第三章运用国际通行的测算方法，结合中国的实际情况，重新对中国的资本外逃额进行估算，经估算中国的资本外逃额1990-2004年15年间的总额达到了6669.2亿美元，这15年的时间段，以2002年为分水岭，2002年以前资本外逃的额度都是正值，2002年以后变为了负值。本文的第四章是对中国资本外逃的影响因素的实证分析。首先列举了影响资本外逃的可能因素，然后利用统计回归模型分析这些影响资本外逃的因素，，找出影响最明显的变量(主要是GDP的增长率、国际储备、财政赤字和金融危机)，最后得到了中国资本外逃影响因素的理想模型。在上述讨论分析的基础之上，本文最后一章结合第二、三和第四章的分析结果，针对不同的途径和对资本外逃影响明显的因素提出了相应的政策建议。在写作方法上，广泛吸收了国内外学术界对国际短期资本流动、资本外逃的研究成果，注重于援引国外理论结合国内实际情况来分析中国问题；以定性分析和定量分析为辅，理论和现实相结合；涉及数量分析的地方，力求图文并茂，突出数字和图表的解释力。
[Abstract]:After China's entry into the WTO, China's economy has accelerated its integration into the global economy, which has enabled China to gain a more open market. At the same time, China is facing a more serious challenge. The international capital flow has become the most active force in the world economy today. Capital flight is a special phenomenon of capital flow, and it has a strong concealment. Its scale is difficult to measure accurately and has a great impact on a country's economic life. First of all, on the premise of reviewing the research results of the definition of capital flight at home and abroad, this paper summarizes some characteristics of capital flight: capital flight, relative to the normal capital flow, It is a kind of abnormal capital flow. It includes short-term capital and long-term capital, and its motivation is complicated. Economic, political and social factors can be the reasons for capital flight. Secondly, in order to measure the scale of capital flight, we must first study the ways of capital flight. According to the three major items in the balance of payments account, we analyze the ways of capital flight one by one. Combined with the changes of economic and trade environment after China's entry into WTO in recent years, this paper discusses the possible new ways of capital flight. The third chapter uses the international common measurement method, unifies the actual situation of China, carries on the estimate again to the Chinese capital flight volume, after the estimate China's capital flight volume from 1990 to 2004 15 years total has reached 666.92 billion US dollars, these 15 years time period. With 2002 as the watershed, capital flight was positive before 2002 and negative after 2002. The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis of the influencing factors of capital flight in China. Firstly, the possible factors influencing capital flight are listed, and then the factors influencing capital flight are analyzed by statistical regression model. Find out the most obvious variables (mainly the growth rate of GDP, international reserves, fiscal deficit and financial crisis), and finally get the ideal model of the influencing factors of Chinese capital flight. On the basis of the above discussion and analysis, combined with the results of the second, third and fourth chapters, the last chapter of this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations for different ways and factors that have obvious influence on capital flight. In terms of writing methods, it extensively absorbs the research results of international short-term capital flows and capital flight in domestic and foreign academic circles, and focuses on invoking foreign theories to analyze China's problems in combination with the actual situation at home and abroad, which is supplemented by qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. The combination of theory and reality; where quantitative analysis is involved, strive for illustrative illustrations, highlighting the explanatory power of figures and charts.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2006
【分类号】：F832.6;F224

【相似文献】