我国养老服务业的经济效应及发展路径研究

发布时间：2018-04-04 07:54

本文选题：养老服务业　切入点：发展现状　出处：《西北大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,我国老龄人口迅速增长,人口老龄化日益严峻,劳动力人口逐渐由相对丰裕转向相对短缺,家庭养老功能逐渐弱化,社会养老负担日益严重。因此,对我国养老服务业发展现状、经济效应、影响因素、发展路径及对策的研究,以及使养老服务业又快又好的发展路径等是十分值得探讨的重要课题。本文采用定性与定量、逻辑与对比、实证与规范等相结合的研究方法,首先系统梳理人口老龄化、马克思再生产、马斯洛需求层次、福利多元主义、代际伦理关系等相关理论,并对国内外人口老龄化、供给主体及资金来源,以及经济效应等进行综述；其次,对我国目前养老服务业发展现状与存在问题进行深入分析,基于理论和实证分析方法对我国城乡养老服务业发展经济效应进行研究,并通过构建计量模型进行实证检验；最后,结合分析结论及国外发达国家发展经验和启示,给出我国养老服务业未来发展的路径选择。研究发现：(1)发展现状主要体现在“基数大和增速快的老年人口是驱动我国养老服务业需求扩张的决定因素；供给能力显著提升,但与养老市场需求相比仍难以为继；资源配置在不同地区和机构配置严重失衡；资源投入有限,专业化医护人员极度匮乏等是制约供给容量、质量和效率提升的重要因素。”等方面。(2)存在问题体现在“供需矛盾突出,资源配置不均衡；难以转变为产业化的有效需求；管理体制不完善,行业标准未建立；人员素质低、流动性高”等方面。(3)经济效应主要包括“居民消费、投资扩大、产业融合、促进就业、经济增长等；其将成为国民经济中长期稳定的支柱性产业,以企业经济利益为基础的社会化和产业化的养老模式,将拓展整个国民经济增长空间；城镇养老服务业经济效应明显大于农村。”(4)影响因素主要表现在“老年人口规模、社会养老机构增加值、地区居民消费水平以及老年人口城乡结构等因素对我国各地区的养老服务业发展产生明显促进作用;而老年人口结构呈现出明显阻碍作用。”文章最后基于前文研究基础,借鉴国外先进发展经验及启示,给出我国养老服务业发展的路径选择：即“完善发展保障体系—构建多元合作机制—产业化与市场化发展方式—城镇优先和城乡协调发展策略—专业化与标准化发展理念”。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the aging population in China is growing rapidly, the aging population is becoming increasingly severe, the labor force population is gradually changing from relative abundance to relative shortage, the family pension function is gradually weakening, and the social endowment burden is becoming more and more serious.Therefore, the research on the status quo, economic effects, influencing factors, development paths and countermeasures of the pension service industry in China is an important topic worth discussing.This paper uses qualitative and quantitative, logical and comparative, empirical and normative research methods, first of all systematically combing population aging, Marx reproduction, Maslow hierarchy of needs, welfare pluralism, intergenerational ethical relations and other related theories.It also summarizes the aging of the population at home and abroad, the main body of supply and the source of funds, and the economic effects. Secondly, it makes a deep analysis of the current situation and problems of the development of the service industry for the aged in China.Based on the theoretical and empirical analysis methods, the economic effects of the development of urban and rural old-age service industry in China are studied, and empirical tests are carried out through the construction of econometric model. Finally, combined with the conclusions of the analysis and the development experience and enlightenment of foreign developed countries,This paper gives the path choice of the future development of the pension service industry in our country.It is found that the current situation of the development is mainly reflected in the fact that "the elderly population with a large base and fast growth rate is the decisive factor driving the expansion of the demand for the aged service industry in China, the supply capacity is improved significantly, but compared with the demand for the old-age care market, it is still difficult to sustain;"The allocation of resources in different regions and institutions is seriously out of balance; the limited investment of resources and the extreme shortage of specialized medical personnel are the important factors restricting the capacity, quality and efficiency of supply. "The existing problems are as follows: "the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, the allocation of resources is not balanced, it is difficult to change into the effective demand for industrialization, the management system is not perfect, the industry standard is not established, the quality of personnel is low,"The economic effects mainly include "resident consumption, expansion of investment, industrial convergence, promotion of employment, economic growth, and so on; it will become a pillar industry for the long-term stability of the national economy."The socialized and industrialized pension model based on the economic interests of enterprises will expand the space for the growth of the whole national economy, the economic effect of urban old-age service industry is obviously greater than that of the rural areas.Factors such as the added value of social pension institutions, the level of local residents' consumption, and the urban-rural structure of the elderly population have obviously promoted the development of the old-age service industry in various regions of our country, while the structure of the elderly population has obviously hindered the development of the old-age service industry. "Finally, based on the previous research, the paper draws lessons from foreign advanced development experience and enlightenment.The path choice of the development of the aged service industry in China is given as follows: "perfect the development security system, construct the pluralistic cooperation mechanism, industrialize and market-oriented development mode, give priority to cities and towns, coordinate the development strategy between urban and rural areas, specialization and standardization development idea".
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：D669.6

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