湖南省农业科技进步贡献率测算与影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-04-09 18:54

本文选题：农业科技　切入点：农业科技进步　出处：《湖南农业大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：农业是国民经济的基础。要促进农业发展,提高农业生产力,其关键要实现科技进步,转变农业发展方式。发展湖南省农业要实现传统农业向现代农业转变,实现这一目标是要依靠科技进步,提高劳动生产率,最根本的是提高农业科技进步的贡献率。湖南省农业科技进步贡献率还有提高的空间。因此,本论文以湖南省农业科技进步贡献率为选题,具有理论和现实意义。论文采用的索罗模型和计量经济学相关知识,基于湖南省的数据,对湖南省农业科技进步贡献率进行系统的测定,分析了湖南省科技进步贡献率的影响因素,提出促进湖南省农业科技进步的对策和建议。论文首先对湖南省农业发展及农业科技现状进行了分析。利用湖南省统计年鉴数据资料,运用描述性分析方法,分析了湖南省取得的农业科技成就以及存在的问题。论文重点研究湖南省农业科技进步贡献率。根据全要素生产率的理论,利用C-D函数,以产出增长指标、资本投入指标、劳动力投入指标、土地投入指标作为农业科技进步贡献率的测算指标。在参数估计方面,本文通过用Eviews软件对模型进行OSL估计,测算湖南省农业科技进步贡献率。研究发现：近年湖南省农业科技发展取得长足进步,农业科技进步贡献率在逐年递增,农业科技整体水平有所提高。其中,湖南省在“十五”期间农业科技进步贡献率为47%,“十一五”期间农业科技进步贡献率为52%,2011-2013年农业科技进步贡献率分别为54%、55%、56%。同时利用灰色动态模型进行湖南省中长期预测,预计到2020年湖南省农业科技进步贡献率将达到61%。应用多元回归分析对湖南省农业科技进步贡献率主要影响因素进行分析。由结果可以看出,农业机械化水平、科研投入量、科研人员投入量、国家经济政策、农业FDI与农业科技进步贡献率呈正相关关系。促进湖南省农业科技发展和农业科技进步,论文从强化科技引导方向、提高农业机械化水平、加大农业科技补贴力度、加大对农业人力资本的投入、吸引外商直接投资、培育农业科技企业几个方面提出政策建议。实现农业经济可持续增长,不断提高农业科技水平,加快适宜湖南省农业技术开发研究和推广应用。
[Abstract]:Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy.In order to promote agricultural development and improve agricultural productivity, the key is to realize scientific and technological progress and change the mode of agricultural development.In order to realize the transformation from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture, the development of Hunan agriculture should depend on the progress of science and technology, improve the productivity of labor, and improve the contribution rate of agricultural science and technology progress.Hunan province agricultural science and technology progress contribution rate still has the space to improve.Therefore, this paper takes the contribution rate of agricultural science and technology progress in Hunan Province as the topic, which has theoretical and practical significance.Based on the data of Hunan Province, this paper systematically measured the contribution rate of agricultural science and technology progress in Hunan Province, and analyzed the influencing factors of the contribution rate of science and technology progress in Hunan Province.The countermeasures and suggestions to promote the progress of agricultural science and technology in Hunan Province are put forward.Firstly, the paper analyzes the development of agriculture and the present situation of agricultural science and technology in Hunan Province.The achievements and problems of agricultural science and technology in Hunan Province were analyzed by using the statistical yearbook data of Hunan Province and descriptive analysis method.This paper focuses on the contribution rate of agricultural science and technology progress in Hunan Province.According to the theory of total factor productivity, using C-D function, output growth index, capital input index, labor force input index and land input index are used as the index to measure the contribution rate of agricultural science and technology progress.In terms of parameter estimation, this paper calculates the contribution rate of agricultural science and technology progress in Hunan province by using Eviews software to estimate the OSL of the model.It is found that the development of agricultural science and technology in Hunan Province has made great progress in recent years, the contribution rate of agricultural science and technology progress is increasing year by year, and the overall level of agricultural science and technology has been improved.Among them, the contribution rate of agricultural science and technology progress in Hunan Province is 47 in the 10th Five-Year Plan period, and in the 11th Five-Year Plan period, the contribution rate of agricultural science and technology progress in the period of the 11th Five-Year Plan is 54, 5555 and 5656, respectively, in 2011-2013.At the same time, the contribution rate of agricultural science and technology progress in Hunan Province will reach 61% by 2020, which is predicted by the use of grey dynamic model in the medium and long term prediction of Hunan province.The main influencing factors of agricultural science and technology progress in Hunan province were analyzed by multiple regression analysis.It can be seen from the results that the level of agricultural mechanization, the amount of scientific research input, the amount of input of scientific research personnel, the national economic policy, the agricultural FDI and the contribution rate of agricultural scientific and technological progress are positively correlated.In order to promote the development and progress of agricultural science and technology in Hunan Province, this paper aims at strengthening the direction of scientific and technological guidance, raising the level of agricultural mechanization, increasing the subsidy of agricultural science and technology, increasing the investment in agricultural human capital, and attracting foreign direct investment.Raise agricultural science and technology enterprise to put forward policy suggestion in several respects.To realize the sustainable growth of agricultural economy, to continuously improve the level of agricultural science and technology, and to speed up the development, research and popularization of agricultural technology suitable for Hunan Province.
【学位授予单位】：湖南农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F323.3

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