基于二元水循环模拟的泾河流域干旱危机诊断与调控研究

发布时间：2018-04-15 14:40

本文选题：泾河流域 + 干旱危机诊断　；参考：《长安大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：干旱灾害作为一个全球性问题,其对社会发展造成的影响极大。在我国,旱灾带来的损失位居所有自然灾害损失之首,极大地阻碍了农业、社会经济、牧业、生态环境等发展。单就农业而言,建国以来,旱灾给农业带来的年均经济损失超过所有其它自然灾害损失之和。此外,在科学技术日趋发达的今天,旱灾仍是一个丞待解决的难题。且有资料表明,在气候变化的影响下,干旱情势在近几十年更趋严峻,如何缓解干旱灾害带来的影响已成为世界瞩目的热点课题。国内外学者对此进行了大量相关研究,内容涉及干旱规律、干旱评价、干旱预警以及干旱管理等各个方面。然而研究中我们发现以往研究多集中于气象水文要素、下垫面要素、气候模式要素与干旱事件本身的相关分析,对干旱发展过程中人为因素和生态因素的考虑并不充分,难以全面获知旱情发展过程中的复杂过程及其潜在影响。再者,由于气象水文序列受到人类活动的干扰,其已不再满足一致性要求,且干旱过程中的各因子之间的相互作用关系亦受其影响,这使得传统研究中的统计分析、相关性分析结果,或单纯结合气候模式和气象模式的干旱预报结果可能存在失真问题。基于此,本研究以泾河流域为例,围绕研究区内干旱规律与驱动机制解析、干旱危机诊断体系建立、面向干旱发展的二元水循环模拟模型建立、基于二元水循环的干旱危机诊断与调控体系等方面,对考虑人类活动影响的干旱诊断与调控体系模式展开了研究。其主要研究内容及所得结论如下:一、干旱规律与驱动机制解析。从自然水循环与社会水循环两个角度出发,分析干旱情势的演变规律。在自然水循环角度,从气象因子、气候因子、水文枯水指标以及地文因子方面,分析其与干旱事件的关联性;在社会水循环角度,从研究区用水量、用水结构的演变分析其相伴关系,从供水水源以及调蓄工程方面分析干旱事件发生发展的归因,试图更为全面地解析干旱灾害的驱动过程。二、干旱危机诊断体系建立。在确定干旱危机诊断指标甄选原则基础上,结合研究区干旱灾害驱动机制分析结果,从气象、水源情势以及盈缺关系三个角度构建干旱危机诊断指标体系。并详细说明了体系中各指标的获取方式与途径,强调人类活动在干旱事件发展过程中扮演的重要角色,指出要真实地反映干旱演变过程,必须在指标体系中纳入人类活动的影响。而二元水循环模拟模型作为自然-人类二元耦合模型,正是反映人类活动与自然过程耦合的重要手段。三、面向干旱危机的二元水循环模拟模型。二元水循环模拟是干旱危机诊断的基础,是指标获取的重要途径。二元水循环模拟模型的建立包括SWAT分布式水文模型的建立、水资源配置模型的建立和模型耦合三个部分。水文模型与水资源配置模型的耦合主要涉及时间尺度、空间尺度以及输入输出接口的耦合。四、基于二元水循环的干旱危机诊断与调控体系建立。危机诊断与调控体系体系是将危机诊断体系与面向干旱危机发展的二元水循环模拟模型的融合,通过二元水循环模型驱动干旱危机诊断体系的滚动运行,融合调控手段后,可实现“预警—预决策—预决策效果分析—预决策修正—决策”的循环滚动式危机诊断与调控决策过程,可辅助干旱管理的科学量化进程。五、实例分析。旨在将上述干旱危机诊断与调控体系体系,代入实际案例应用,以验证所提模型与方法的合理性。以泾河流域2013年7月~2014年6月为研究时段,对流域内Sub1-Sub27等27个子流域的干旱过程逐一进行模拟,并以子流域为基本单元,以庆阳片区、平凉片区以及咸阳片区3子分区为评价单元,对区域干旱情势发生发展过程进行详细的对比分析。研究发现干旱危机诊断与调控体系较为科学合理,预警结果可靠。根据预警结果选取适宜抗旱措施后可有效缓解旱情,认为其可应用于实际。
[Abstract]:Drought is a global problem, its impact on the social development greatly. In China, the drought losses among all natural disasters for the first time, greatly hindered the social economy, agriculture, animal husbandry, ecological environment development. Agriculture alone, since the founding of new China, the average annual economic losses to agricultural drought bring over all other natural disasters loss. In addition, in science and technology increasingly developed today, the drought is still a problem to be solved. And the data show that the effects of climate change, drought situation in recent ten years is more serious, how to alleviate the effects of drought disaster has become a hot topic the world's attention. The domestic and foreign scholars have conducted extensive research, involving the rules of drought, drought evaluation, various aspects of drought early warning and drought management. However, I have found that previous research studies The focus on meteorological and hydrological factors, underlying surface factors, correlation analysis of climate model elements and drought event itself, the human factors and ecological factors of drought in the development process of consideration is not sufficient, it is difficult to fully learn the complex process of drought in the process of development and its potential impact. Furthermore, the meteorological and hydrological sequence disturbance by human activities and it is no longer satisfy the consistency requirements, the relationship between each factor and the process of drought also affected, which makes the research in traditional statistical analysis, correlation analysis, or simple combination of drought forecast results of climate model and meteorological model may exist distortion problem. Based on this, this study in Jinghe basin for example, around the study area drought regularity and driving mechanism analysis, establish Drought Crisis diagnosis system, the two yuan water cycle simulation model was established for drought development base In two yuan of water cycle of Drought Crisis Control and diagnosis system, considering the influence of human activities on drought diagnosis and mode control system is studied. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows: first, the rules of drought and driving mechanism analysis. From the natural water cycle and water cycle society two angles, evolution analysis of drought situation. In view of the natural water cycle, from meteorological factors, climatic factors, hydrological water index and physiographic factors, correlation analysis and drought events; in the perspective of social water cycle, water from the study area, the evolution of water structure analysis of the associated relationship, from water supply and storage engineering attribution analysis drought event development, to more comprehensive analysis of drought driven process. Two, establish Drought Crisis diagnosis system. In determining the diagnosis index of the original selection of Drought Crisis On the basis of a combination of drought disasters in the study area driving mechanism analysis, from the weather, water shortage and surplus situation and three aspects of relationship building Drought Crisis diagnosis index system. And a detailed description of the access mode and way of index in the system, emphasizing the important role of human activities play in the development process of drought event, pointed out the need to reflect the drought, the impact of human activities must be included in the index system. And the two yuan water cycle simulation model as a natural human two element coupling model is an important means to reflect human activities and natural processes. The coupling simulation model of three, two yuan of water for drought crisis cycle. Two yuan water cycle simulation is the basis of Drought Crisis diagnosis, is an important way to obtain the index. Two models of water circulation is established including SWAT distributed hydrological model, water resources allocation model. The three part set and model coupling. Coupling of hydrological and water resources allocation model mainly involves time scale, spatial scale and coupled input and output interface. Four, the Drought Crisis diagnosis and control system is established based on water circulation of two yuan. The crisis control and diagnosis system is the system integration simulation model of two yuan water crisis diagnosis system with the development of the crisis oriented drought cycle, through two yuan water circulation model driven rolling operation Drought Crisis diagnosis system, integration control means, can realize the "pre warning decision - pre decision effectiveness analysis - correction - pre decision making" circulation crisis diagnosis and control decision process of rolling, can assist the drought management the scientific quantification process. Five, aimed at the analysis of an example. Drought Crisis Control and diagnosis system, into the actual case application, reasonable to verify the proposed model and method. In the Jinghe River Basin. In July 2013 ~2014 year in June for the study period, the drought process within the basin Sub1-Sub27 27 sub basins by simulation, and the sub basin as the basic unit in the Qingyang area, Pingliang area and Xianyang area 3 sub partitions for the evaluation unit, occurrence and development process of regional drought situation detailed comparative analysis study found that crisis control and diagnosis system of drought early warning of more scientific and reasonable, reliable results. According to the result of early warning the selection of appropriate anti drought measures can effectively alleviate the drought, it can be applied to practice.

【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：P426.616

【参考文献】