商品房价格的计量经济分析

发布时间：2018-04-18 05:27

本文选题：商品房平均价格 + 计量经济模型　；参考：《电子科技大学》2006年硕士论文

【摘要】： 房地产业的快速发展对中国经济的持续增长起到了举足轻重的作用,在房地产业日益繁荣的今天,商品房价格连续数年的快速上涨使房屋价格问题成为广大居民关注的一个热点。但理论界对商品房价格问题的研究却很不充分,由于没有一个可靠的模型可以用来做定量的分析,许多有关商品房价格问题的探讨与争议也仅停留在定性分析的层次上。本文正是针对这一问题,以计量经济学为工具,依据供求关系分析了诸多因素对商品房价格的影响,在此基础上对商品房价格模型问题做出了创新性和探索性的研究。主要内容为: 1.依据供求关系,本文通过用计量经济学分析诸多可以直接量化的因素对商品房价格的影响,建立了一个商品房价格的单方程计量经济模型并对其有效性做了全面的检验。 2.在分析了房地产经济周期因素和政策因素对商品房价格的影响基础上,通过引入房地产经济周期影响因子的方式对商品房价格模型进行了修正,建立了一个考虑房地产经济周期和政策因素影响的商品房价格模型。对该模型的各种有效性检验表明,这是一个可以用来分析商品房价格问题的可靠模型。 3.通过商品房价格泡沫的评价指标分析得出了现阶段我国商品房价格在总体上不存在明显“虚高”的结论。利用本文的模型分析了商品房平均价格走势等热点问题,指出:如果房地产开发投资始终保持2000年以来的增长速度,必将出现商品房供大于求,商品房平均价格下跌的局面,并依据本文的模型计算出了比较适当的房地产开发投资增长速度。 4.在总结全文的基础上,提出了一系列有价值的建议和启示,这些建议和启示对投资者在商品房市场中的投资活动和政府部门出台新政策来调控商品房市场都有着重要的现实指导意义。
[Abstract]:The rapid development of the real estate industry plays an important role in the sustained economic growth of China.The price of commercial housing has been rising rapidly for several years.However, there is not enough research on the price of commercial housing in the theoretical circle. Because there is no reliable model to do quantitative analysis, many discussions and controversies about the price of commercial housing only stay on the level of qualitative analysis.In this paper, econometrics is used as a tool to analyze the influence of many factors on the price of commercial housing according to the relationship between supply and demand. On the basis of this, the paper makes an innovative and exploratory study on the price model of commercial housing.The main contents are:1.According to the relationship between supply and demand, this paper analyzes the influence of many factors which can be directly quantified by econometrics, and establishes a single equation econometric model of the price of commercial housing and makes a comprehensive test on its validity.2.On the basis of analyzing the influence of the real estate economic cycle factors and the policy factors on the commercial housing prices, this paper modifies the real estate price model by introducing the real estate economic cycle factors.In this paper, a real estate price model considering the impact of real estate economic cycle and policy factors is established.The validity tests of this model show that it is a reliable model for analyzing the price of commercial housing.3.Through the analysis of the evaluation index of the commodity housing price bubble, the conclusion is drawn that there is no obvious "false high" in China's commodity housing price at the present stage.Using the model of this paper, this paper analyzes the trend of average price of commercial housing and points out that if the investment in real estate development keeps the growth rate since 2000, there will be a situation that the supply of commercial housing exceeds the demand, and the average price of commercial housing falls.According to the model of this paper, a more appropriate real estate investment growth rate is calculated.4.On the basis of summing up the full text, this paper puts forward a series of valuable suggestions and revelations.These suggestions and revelations have important practical guiding significance for investors' investment activities in the commercial housing market and the new policies issued by government departments to regulate the commercial housing market.
【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2006
【分类号】：F293.3;F224

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