云南省产业结构演变的经济增长效应测度

发布时间：2018-04-19 18:29

本文选题：产业结构 + 投入产出表　；参考：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文以云南省为例,基于云南省历年统计年鉴,深入剖析自1978年以来云南省产业结构的演变规律和特点;以2002年、2007年、2012年投入产出表的相关数据为依据,采用关键部门分析法和SDA结构分解法,以产业结构和部门发展为出发点,对云南省产业结构演变的经济增长效应进行测度,寻找云南省国民经济发展的主导产业、基础产业、瓶颈产业等,从量的角度研究产业之间投入与产出的数量比例关系,考虑各产业部门之间的关联特征及相应的“结构效应”。得出的结论可以对云南省产业结构的调整和经济政策的制定提供量化参考。首先,对云南省三次产业从经济贡献度和就业吸纳力度两个角度进行分析,得出如下结论:云南省产业结构已形成“二、三、一”协同发展的基本格局,并在此基础上向“三、二、一”逐步过渡。第一产业发展缓慢,但基础性地位仍不可动摇;第二产业在国民经济发展中处于支柱地位,对经济发展的影响也逐渐趋于稳定,但是轻重工业发展呈现基本脱节状态;总体布局和投入在向第三产业偏移,但是潜力未被充分挖掘。从吸纳就业人员角度看,作为农业大省,第一产业仍居于主力地位,某种程度上成为限制经济发展的阻力;第二产业就业人员吸纳能力保持稳定上升;第三产业就业人数持续增高,这表明第三产业发展潜力巨大,将逐步成为吸纳云南省劳动力就业的潜力股。其次,以云南省各产业部门的关联度和结构效应为切入点,得出以下重要结论:第二产业是拉动经济增长的支柱产业;农林牧渔业有不可替代的基础性地位,但是在经济快速发展期,又极有可能成为限制经济增长的瓶颈;第三产业已成为拉动经济增长的潜力产业,但其辐射推动效应还未得到有效的开发利用,云南省产业结构仍旧趋于传统,创新能力有待提高。对云南省各产业部门的总产出变动进行因素分解发现居民消费、政府消费、资本形成、净流出等几大因素在不同的产业部门对国民经济的影响程度各有不同。
[Abstract]:Taking Yunnan Province as an example, based on the statistical yearbooks of Yunnan Province over the years, this paper deeply analyzes the evolution law and characteristics of Yunnan's industrial structure since 1978, based on the relevant data of the input-output table in 2002, 2007 and 2012.By using the key sector analysis method and the SDA structure decomposition method, this paper measures the economic growth effect of the evolution of the industrial structure in Yunnan Province by taking the industrial structure and the development of the department as the starting point, and looks for the leading industry and basic industry in the development of the national economy of Yunnan Province.From the angle of quantity, the relationship between input and output is studied, and the related characteristics and the corresponding "structure effect" among industrial departments are considered.The conclusion can provide quantitative reference for the adjustment of industrial structure and the formulation of economic policy in Yunnan Province.First of all, the paper analyzes the three industries in Yunnan Province from the angle of economic contribution and employment absorption, and draws the following conclusions: the industrial structure of Yunnan Province has formed the basic pattern of "two, three, and one" coordinated development, and on this basis,Two, one "step by step transition."The development of the primary industry is slow, but the basic position is still unshakable, the secondary industry is in the pillar position in the development of the national economy, and the influence on the economic development tends to be stable gradually, but the development of light and heavy industry is basically disjointed.Overall layout and investment in the third industry shift, but the potential has not been fully exploited.From the angle of absorbing employed personnel, as a big agricultural province, the primary industry still occupies the main position, to some extent, it has become the resistance to restrict the economic development, the ability of absorbing the employment personnel of the second industry keeps steady rise;The employment of the tertiary industry continues to increase, which indicates that the development of the tertiary industry has great potential and will gradually become the potential stock to absorb the employment of the labor force in Yunnan Province.Secondly, based on the related degree and structural effect of the various industrial departments in Yunnan Province, the following important conclusions are drawn: the secondary industry is the pillar industry to stimulate economic growth, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry has an irreplaceable basic position.However, in the period of rapid economic development, it is very likely to become a bottleneck restricting economic growth. The tertiary industry has become a potential industry to stimulate economic growth, but its radiation promotion effect has not been effectively exploited and utilized.The industrial structure of Yunnan Province still tends to tradition, innovation ability needs to be improved.The factor decomposition of the total output change of the various industrial departments in Yunnan Province shows that the factors such as resident consumption, government consumption, capital formation and net outflow have different influences on the national economy in different industrial sectors.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127

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